Ji Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 11:46 AM, aldie 22 said: Most homes put the bar in the basement you put yours on the roof lol dude we probably aren't getting a foot out of this try and level set a bit. Remember I know where you live if you cant stay calm I'm dropping a flaming bag of dog poo on your porchYou are more pessimistic than me and even you were excited yesterday as I noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 11:49 AM, aldie 22 said: Weather53 is gonna have a field day So is chick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 11:49 AM, Ji said: Expand Sucks to be you 13 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 11:44 AM, Ji said: I said I had not seen models/ensembles scream like that since 2016 for a storm I mean the eps mean was 9-10 inches Expand Yeah but without the clean block we had in 2016 or 2010, we can’t really get too excited this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 11:50 AM, Ji said: You are more pessimistic than me and even you were excited yesterday as I noted Expand I always root harder when the season is coming to a close plus my annual work trip out west...I want to get as much as possible before then. Hey at least psu and mitch look to score Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 11:49 AM, Ji said: Expand Looks great! Good reporting Ji, thanks for this! 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 11:34 AM, Ji said: The 6z euro looks pretty bad. We may see very little snow next week Expand Keep an eye on the area of confluence to the north and the strength of surface HP. We want that 1037 high over southern Canada like the 12z run yesterday, not a 1030 sliding off the NE coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 11:51 AM, Fozz said: Yeah but without the clean block we had in 2016 or 2010, we can’t really get too excited this far out.We have a solid -ao and nao for the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 11:55 AM, Ji said: We have a solid -ao and nao for the storm Expand Is the euro still slower than the GFS? Gfs looks a half day earlier with the precursor and main event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 11:55 AM, Ji said: We have a solid -ao and nao for the storm Expand The block is just beginning to get established at that point. We need some good wave timing up top, and not too much amplification of the shortwave to our SW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 There have been various model runs from all of them showing anything from suppressed to flush hit to north personally I still think all options are on the table but maybe the suppressed option has diminished more than the other two. I'll probably still drive to north jersey to be safe lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 11:58 AM, Chris78 said: Is the euro still slower than the GFS? Gfs looks a half day earlier with the precursor and main event Euro started Monday 18z when did gfs start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 https://x.com/burgwx/status/1887109805694656814?s=46&t=C005pd5HNg3Y-KhVU7n3VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 5:14 AM, ravensrule said: It will be worth it. Trust me. Expand It was nice seeing snow to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 6z Euro/Eps only go out 144hrs as most know. 6z looks better that 0z with only a slight shave off the southern portion. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 11:44 AM, Ji said: I said I had not seen models/ensembles scream like that since 2016 for a storm I mean the eps mean was 9-10 inches Expand Shouldn't we rely more on Ensembles this far out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 12:12 PM, mitchnick said: 6z Euro/Eps only go out 144hrs as most know. 6z looks better that 0z with only a slight shave off the southern portion.How is Ai bundy looking ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 12:14 PM, Ji said: How is Ai bundy looking ? Expand Not out until 8. But the 0z that Will posted was Grrrrreat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 12:03 PM, Ji said: Euro started Monday 18z when did gfs start Expand On 2/5/2025 at 12:12 PM, mitchnick said: 6z Euro/Eps only go out 144hrs as most know. 6z looks better that 0z with only a slight shave off the southern portion. Expand Gfs was between 12-18z Monday now. I’d wager that’s a large part of what the EPS is reflecting. Earlier start. Kinda crazy when we started watching this event, it was evening of the 12th into the 13th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 12:14 PM, Ji said: How is Ai bundy looking ? Expand Since we're now talking less than 5 days before start time, if the 6z AI comes in looking close to the 0z run or better, imho you can start getting cocky again about a big event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 10:23 AM, Weather Will said: WB 6Z GFS: a blend of the GFS and EURO works well for most of us...we will see. Expand We never get blend when we need the blend. More often than not one model is right and the other is wrong and we watch painstakingly as one moves toward the other. Can we please just get a blend here the one time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Sweet. I’ll enjoy my warm rain and be happy for those that get snow based off one run 6 days out. Am I doing this right? Making final outcome statements when it’s still unknown what will happen? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 11:49 AM, Ji said: Expand That’s pretty good, I’ll take frozen over heavy rain and 33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 6Z AI is WONDERFUL!!!! 3 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 12:53 PM, H2O said: Sweet. I’ll enjoy my warm rain and be happy for those that get snow based off one run 6 days out. Am I doing this right? Making final outcome statements when it’s still unknown what will happen? Expand Maybe this trends South. Still a lot of time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 1:01 PM, mitchnick said: 6Z AI is WONDERFUL!!!! Expand 1st flakes start before 12z Tiesday and don't end until just before 13z Wednesday. Then there's a second wave that comes in on Thursday that's probably a 2-4". Then Saturday has another event but we lose 850's after a modest accumulation. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 12:11 PM, bncho said: It was nice seeing snow to rain. Expand You need to calm down. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 1:05 PM, mitchnick said: 1st flakes start before 12z Tiesday and don't end until just before 13z Wednesday. Then there's a second wave that comes in on Thursday that's probably a 2-4". Then Saturday has another event but we lose 850's after a modest accumulation. Expand Looks like we want to root for an earlier start (or the first wave to be dominant) when we still have the thermals for a most/all snow event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 1:05 PM, mitchnick said: 1st flakes start before 12z Tiesday and don't end until just before 13z Wednesday. Then there's a second wave that comes in on Thursday that's probably a 2-4". Then Saturday has another event but we lose 850's after a modest accumulation. Expand Nice hopefully calm some nerves to still have some good runs out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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