CAPE Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 This is the upper level pattern for early next week. Suppression is not the failure mode I would be worried about with this look. Imo it wont be easy to get an all snow event. Best shot very northern parts of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 7:32 AM, Stormchaserchuck1 said: NAO remains positive through Day 15.. You guys may say it's not, but what you are looking at is the AO. The NAO is actually SLP calculated between Iceland and the Azores. What's happening for the next 15 days is a "south-based +NAO", and I've run the maps, it goes with warmer than average conditions in the Mid Atlantic and Southeast. This is why 500mb never gets cold. I'm still of the opinion that the coming storms are mostly rain or ice.. we will do well if we exit this +NAO pattern with more than a few inches of snow total. +NAO/-EPO, which is modeled for some of the time, is correlated to icestorms. Expand That might be the textbook definition of a -NAO, but for practical purposes the NAO is solidly negative on the means by early next week. So is the AO. I somewhat agree that the advertised pattern for next week generally supports mixy events, but a mostly/all snow event is possible with favorable timing/less amplification. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 WB 6Z GFS: a blend of the GFS and EURO works well for most of us...we will see. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 I went from 29” of snow, to thunderstorms , in 3 GFS runs. The SER is dominant. The Barney Avacado was a pipe dream. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 10:23 AM, Weather Will said: WB 6Z GFS: a blend of the GFS and EURO works well for most of us...we will see. Expand That's a pretty dramatic jump north from 0z long way to go but if I recall we were always walking the line of where the boundary sets up. I'm not sure that's been determined yet but I'm guessing down by North Carolina is the least likely for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 10:52 AM, aldie 22 said: That's a pretty dramatic jump north from 0z long way to go but if I recall we were always walking the line of where the boundary sets up. I'm not sure that's been determined yet but I'm guessing down by North Carolina is the least likely for now.We've lost all our wiggle room. This screams 3-6 inched and freezing rain Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 9:23 AM, CAPE said: This is the upper level pattern for early next week. Suppression is not the failure mode I would be worried about with this look. Imo it wont be easy to get an all snow event. Best shot very northern parts of the region. Expand Debbie downers were actually correct stating SER is very powerful plus in years past when things looked great the eventual correction was a cold air dump out West. It might be the new normal. Models not great. It's happening yet again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 10:58 AM, frd said: Debbie downers were actually correct stating SER is very powerful plus in years past when things looked great the eventual correction was a cold air dump out West. It might be the new normal. Models not great. It's happening yet again. We've had very little ser the past 2 wintersSent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 10:55 AM, Ji said: We've lost all our wiggle room. This screams 3-6 inched and freezing rain Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Expand Hard to tell at this point since it's only Wednesday but it's definitely a different vibe this morning especially for our southern friends and even our close in southern burbs. #dontbelieveensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 11:02 AM, Ji said: We've had very little ser the past 2 winters Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Expand And, for the most part did not do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 GFS is now an epic hit for most of us, not suppressed like 0z. 12-18” MECS. Wish we could lock this all up but there’s still a week to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 10:55 AM, Ji said: We've lost all our wiggle room. This screams 3-6 inched and freezing rain Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Expand As you astutely pointed out temps are marginal for the entire event for a lot of us. White to wet to gray seems about right. But who knows its a week out roughly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 11:13 AM, Fozz said: GFS is now an epic hit for most of us, not suppressed like 0z. 12-18” MECS. Wish we could lock this all up but there’s still a week to go. Expand Storm start keeps moving earlier and earlier. GFS has that precursor idea on Monday! 126 hours out. 2nd batch about 24-30 hours later. Euro was about 12 hours slower. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 11:18 AM, WxUSAF said: Storm start keeps moving earlier and earlier. GFS has that precursor idea on Monday! 126 hours out. 2nd batch about 24-30 hours later. Euro was about 12 hours slower. Expand This reminds me of February 2007 when we also had the potential for a big time KU snowstorm, but we got a last minute rug pull and it became the memorable VD sleet storm for most of us, with zr a little further south. If I recall, that was also a good but very imperfect setup where we didn’t quite have a clean block in place, so it shifted north and we got mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 11:18 AM, WxUSAF said: Storm start keeps moving earlier and earlier. GFS has that precursor idea on Monday! 126 hours out. 2nd batch about 24-30 hours later. Euro was about 12 hours slower.I don’t like how close the no snow line is on the gfs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 11:31 AM, Ji said: I don’t like how close the no snow line is on the gfs Expand Hope it rains for you 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 The 6z euro looks pretty bad. We may see very little snow next week 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 11:34 AM, Ji said: The 6z euro looks pretty bad. We may see very little snow next week Expand You might want to take a break you're about to get overly emotional and that's saying something for you 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 11:34 AM, Ji said: The 6z euro looks pretty bad. We may see very little snow next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 GEFS says we're fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 11:38 AM, Ji said: Expand Any snow prior to that lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 I hope the euro amplification bias is really a thing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 11:41 AM, Chris78 said: Any snow prior to that lol?Not much. 4-6? We also don’t know what it does in round 2 but I’m assuming ice as surface temps are still in upper 20s at 144 hours 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 11:34 AM, Ji said: The 6z euro looks pretty bad. We may see very little snow next week Expand Weren’t you just posting on your FB page about 2016 and model runs look so good etc… 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 11:42 AM, LeesburgWx said: Weren’t you just posting on your FB page about 2016 and model runs look so good etc…I said I had not seen models/ensembles scream like that since 2016 for a storm I mean the eps mean was 9-10 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 11:42 AM, Ji said: Not much. 4-6? Expand Most homes put the bar in the basement you put yours on the roof lol dude we probably aren't getting a foot out of this try and level set a bit. Remember I know where you live if you cant stay calm I'm dropping a flaming bag of dog poo on your porch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 11:42 AM, Ji said: Not much. 4-6? We also don’t know what it does in round 2 but I’m assuming ice as surface temps are still in upper 20s at 144 hours Expand So 4 - 6 with the precursor on Monday and the main event looks like ice? Can you post the surface map at 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 11:46 AM, Chris78 said: So 4 - 6 with the precursor on Monday and the main event looks like ice? Can you post the surface map at 144Sure 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 11:44 AM, Ji said: I said I had not seen models/ensembles scream like that since 2016 for a storm I mean the eps mean was 9-10 inches Expand Weather53 is gonna have a field day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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