MillvilleWx Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Hmmmmm, we may have something here ladies and gents I am cautiously optimistic this go around. Should be a fun week+ 18 1 1 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 18z euro at 144 looked ready 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 14 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Hmmmmm, we may have something here ladies and gents I am cautiously optimistic this go around. Should be a fun week+ Fine, I'm buying a jeep this weekend. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 24 minutes ago, Ji said: 18z euro at 144 looked ready It didn't even get warm the last couple days. Snow is incoming soon. It just doesn't want to be a lame winter this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 7 minutes ago, 87storms said: It didn't even get warm the last couple days. Snow is incoming soon. It just doesn't want to be a lame winter this year. Remember when the Euro had mid 60s forecast tomorrow? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 this seems like our best opportunity for a whopper in a while. seems is the key word here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: AI is back. Still a bit light on qpf, but that'll surely change over the next few runs I bet. I’m not disagreeing but just opining how we kinda set ourselves up emotionally for the fall. And I do this too, this is a self reflection also. But 10 days ago when February looked like a torch we were talking about could we eek out anymore snow this winter. Now we’re gonna act like a run with a 3-6” snowstorm is blah. Given our snow climo any run that shows accumulating snow is a win lol. But I totally get it. BTW…I finally had a chance to dig into the crazy GEFS run. The 10” mean day 10 is actually from two waves. The one the op dropped a MECS from and another right after. That follow up wave is low key gaining support on guidance just hasn’t shown up big on any op runs yet. But it’s worth noting that big mean isn’t all from the one storm which does kinda temper things “some”. The op runs of the euro and gfs were kinda the max potential solutions. It’s good that the ops show that but it might not be the most likely outcome yet. I don’t want people to get themselves to a place where if we end up with a 5” snow they’re acting like it’s a fail. 5 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 2 minutes ago, bncho said: this seems like our best opportunity for a whopper in a while. seems is the key word here. 3 minutes ago, bncho said: this seems like our best opportunity for a whopper in a while. seems is the key word here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I’m not disagreeing but just opining how we kinda set ourselves up emotionally for the fall. And I do this too, this is a self reflection also. But 10 days ago when February looked like a torch we were talking about could we eek out anymore snow this winter. Now we’re gonna act like a run with a 3-6” snowstorm is blah. Given our snow climo any run that shows accumulating snow is a win lol. But I totally get it. BTW…I finally had a chance to dig into the crazy GEFS run. The 10” mean day 10 is actually from two waves. The one the op dropped a MECS from and another right after. That follow up wave is low key gaining support on guidance just hasn’t shown up big on any op runs yet. But it’s worth noting that big mean isn’t all from the one storm which does kinda temper things “some”. The op runs of the euro and gfs were kinda the max potential solutions. It’s good that the ops show that but it might not be the most likely outcome yet. I don’t want people to get themselves to a place where if we end up with a 5” snow they’re acting like it’s a fail. People = Ji 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 hour ago, Terpeast said: Gefs still has it, a bit weaker but still ridgy over AK. Eps may be trying to lose the epo ridge too quickly, but we shall see with couple more days. If I had to choose epo or AO/NAO I’ll take the latter. EPO is more correlated to cold but the AO and NAO is more correlated to snow. Especially later Feb into March. Frankly maybe trying a wetter pattern with blocking is the way to go. If the epo ao nao all go negative again it might just be a repeat of January. Cold but mostly dry. This would be warmer but way more active but with a suppressed storm track. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Anything less than six would be a complete disaster 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Just now, Ji said: Anything less than six would be a complete disaster Life must be difficult for you 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: If I had to choose epo or AO/NAO I’ll take the latter. EPO is more correlated to cold but the AO and NAO is more correlated to snow. Especially later Feb into March. Frankly maybe trying a wetter pattern with blocking is the way to go. If the epo ao nao all go negative again it might just be a repeat of January. Cold but mostly dry. This would be warmer but way more active but with a suppressed storm track. Good points, and yes both ens have -ao/-nao in spades 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Anything less than six would be a complete disaster 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Life must be difficult for you It’s all relative. It depends on the storm you’re chasing. If we got six on Saturday, I’ll be a ecstatic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: How do you access this panel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Weatherbell meteogram. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Anything more than 2-3" with the pattern would be a blessing imo Usually in the medium-long range you want to see a negative-500mb trough. That it is mid-Winter makes a little less so, but I still don't trust borderline conditions at this timerange without +PNA or something stable like that, just based on experience from the last 10+ years. A big score of 6-12"+ would be an anomaly with the coming 500mb pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Icon is a hit. Looks like 6”+. Not done yet. edit: like 6-10” 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 I’ve got lots of catching up to do. Is it really going to snow? Ive seen the runs for a MECS next Tuesday and feel doubtful. Is this a legit shot? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Just now, Fozz said: I’ve got lots of catching up to do. Is it really going to snow? Ive seen the runs for a MECS next Tuesday and feel doubtful. Is this a legit shot? welp, we're pretty sure this is a good shot, and it'll probably snow. ensembles have gone wild. whether it comes to fruition is different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 4 minutes ago, T. August said: Icon is a hit. Looks like 6”+. Not done yet. edit: like 6-10” 6-10 total when done? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 58 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I’m not disagreeing but just opining how we kinda set ourselves up emotionally for the fall. And I do this too, this is a self reflection also. But 10 days ago when February looked like a torch we were talking about could we eek out anymore snow this winter. Now we’re gonna act like a run with a 3-6” snowstorm is blah. Given our snow climo any run that shows accumulating snow is a win lol. But I totally get it. BTW…I finally had a chance to dig into the crazy GEFS run. The 10” mean day 10 is actually from two waves. The one the op dropped a MECS from and another right after. That follow up wave is low key gaining support on guidance just hasn’t shown up big on any op runs yet. But it’s worth noting that big mean isn’t all from the one storm which does kinda temper things “some”. The op runs of the euro and gfs were kinda the max potential solutions. It’s good that the ops show that but it might not be the most likely outcome yet. I don’t want people to get themselves to a place where if we end up with a 5” snow they’re acting like it’s a fail. When ya have 7 days to go and you have rare model agreement look so good at that range, I can't help but wondering what the fail scenario would be. Since you're good at mapping those out...go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 minute ago, winter_warlock said: 6-10 total when done? From what I can tell. There could be a little more at the end but we do get close to losing 850s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5 Author Share Posted February 5 And we're off....GFS running. May the odds be in our favor 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Anyone know where CPC moved their analogs. The site I’ve used hadn’t updated since December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Anyone know where CPC moved their analogs. The site I’ve used hadn’t updated since December. I always thought weatherbell had them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Icon is a hit. Looks like 6”+. Not done yet. edit: like 6-10”Ugh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Anyone know where CPC moved their analogs. The site I’ve used hadn’t updated since December. Trump dissolved it 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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