February Medium/Long Range Thread

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

There was a time when the 2016 blizzard just locked in and we all knew it.  I am absolutely NOT saying this is a comparable event or will be the same, or even that these amounts the Euro and GFS are showing will definitely verify.  But the Saturday before the 2016 event, a week prior, every single model and ensemble was pounding that Jan. 22-23 time frame as a major winter event.  It was just a matter of working out the details.  I still vividly remember looking at the discussion in here after the 12Z models on Jan. 16 (that Saturday) and it's like everyone KNEW.  Again, not saying this is the same exact thing by any means (or that it's "guaranteed"), but what the ensembles and the deterministic have been showing for the past couple of days is very reminiscent to me.  That was a classic setup of course with the blocking, plus an El Nino, etc.  So not the same.  But you get the idea.

[stormtracker]

You guys should know by now  not mention plans that you have on days it could snow.   Because I mean....

[clskinsfan]

Sweet sounding for DCA right here. Ripping. 

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

Wish ida saw the ukie snowmap lol  but unfortunately  work intruded lol

It only goes out to 168hrs. Here's the map.

[NorthArlington101]

3 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

I guess the Saturday system is getting ignored and lost in the shuffle.

think that one gets a thread Thursday morning after it's cousin storm passes

[Solution Man]

Just now, mitchnick said:

It only goes out to 168hrs. Here's the map.

That will win for us

[Ji]

lol you’re north of the extreme mid level firehose Im talking about on this run too. But I’d be suspect of those crazy totals down in central VA as there’s very likely a mid level warm layer associated with the strong SW h7 winds partially responsible for that crazy precip band. The gfs won’t see it at this range. Remember places in central VA expected 18” before PD2 and got 8” of sleet instead. 

This seems like a pretty simple set up.
Abundant gulf moisture attacking cold air. How come we don’t get this more

[MDScienceTeacher]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

This seems like a pretty simple set up.
Abundant gulf moisture attacking cold air. How come we don’t get this more

we do.. just like once every 7-9 years.

[Quasievil]

Happy hour has certainly delivered today. Waiting for the GEFS.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 minute ago, MDScienceTeacher said:

we do.. just like once every 7-9 years.

9 years ago this winter since the 2016 storm.

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

This seems like a pretty simple set up.
Abundant gulf moisture attacking cold air. How come we don’t get this more

Something’s been missing 

[WxUSAF]

Gfs-euro blend seems acceptable 

[clskinsfan]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

You guys should know by now  not mention plans that you have on days it could snow.   Because I mean....

I have plans for the symphony at Shenandoah University on Sat the 15th. Including Tchaikovsky's Violin Concerto in D major, Op. 35. I hope I am heading there on cross country ski's. I posted this because I know you are into the symphony as well. 

[Allsnow]

9 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

It only goes out to 168hrs. Here's the map.

The AI has me down in the dumps 

 

4 runs in a row pretty far south the latest would have been a hit for this sub forum 

[katabatic]

27 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

This reminds me of that gfs run about a week before the 2016 monster. Wow! What a fun run. LFG

Might not have to haul our asses up to the Tug to get a big one (let's hope)

[Maestrobjwa]

12 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I have plans for the symphony at Shenandoah University on Sat the 15th. Including Tchaikovsky's Violin Concerto in D major, Op. 35. I hope I am heading there on cross country ski's. I posted this because I know you are into the symphony as well. 

Hey I didn't know you were a music nerd! See me in the forum green room otherwise known as the banter thread Really like that concerto too!

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The AI has me down in the dumps 

 

4 runs in a row pretty far south the latest would have been a hit for this sub forum 

Forget the AI outside of 3 or 4 days. Seriously. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Gfs-euro blend seems acceptable 

To paraphrase Mr. Darcy in "Pride and Prejudice"...it is tolerable, I suppose!

[MDScienceTeacher]

2 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

9 years ago this winter since the 2016 storm.

I mean it is almost like clock work.  83, 93, 96, 03, 10, 16, 2?

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Just now, MDScienceTeacher said:

I mean it is almost like clock work.  83, 93, 96, 03, 10, 16, 2?

We're on the high end here...the "we're due" index is pretty high!!!

[bncho]

2 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said:

I mean it is almost like clock work.  83, 93, 96, 03, 10, 16, 2?

We’re all wanting a list like this:

La Nina: 1996, 2025

[psuhoffman]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Forget the AI outside of 3 or 4 days. Seriously. 

Still the 12z AI would be the nightmare lol scenario for those in the same snow hole that’s been the last 8 years. 3 waves go north and one south leaving a comical snow hole over guess where!  I think it should at least be a cautionary tale that nothing is in the bag yet. 

[MDScienceTeacher]

Just now, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

We're on the high end here...the "we're due" index is pretty high!!!

I know it doesnt work this way, but t way I look at is every year we dont get a HECS.. the higher the chances the next year.   It is Weenie statistics.

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Still the 12z AI would be the nightmare lol scenario for those in the same snow hole that’s been the last 8 years. 3 waves go north and one south leaving a comical snow hole over guess where!  I think it should at least be a cautionary tale that nothing is in the bag yet. 

Gets shoved south because of the TPV sweep. It’s something to watch as it’s still 7-8 days out but it’s not like we haven’t had that issue in the last 8 years 

[aldie 22]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Still the 12z AI would be the nightmare lol scenario for those in the same snow hole that’s been the last 8 years. 3 waves go north and one south leaving a comical snow hole over guess where!  I think it should at least be a cautionary tale that nothing is in the bag yet. 

where?

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Still the 12z AI would be the nightmare lol scenario for those in the same snow hole that’s been the last 8 years. 3 waves go north and one south leaving a comical snow hole over guess where!  I think it should at least be a cautionary tale that nothing is in the bag yet. 

I really don't think anyone thinks this is in the bag just yet (at least not anyone with some level of common sense!).  But one has to like the remarkable ensemble signals as well as what's now showing up on the deterministic runs.  Don't get me wrong, I appreciate the caution here...I'm always overly cautious myself until we actually have a "go" time, but this is not looking like some far-fetched potential here.  I'd like to think we're in a good position.

[Terpeast]

Looking ahead on the overall pattern including the EPO, the GEFS has actually been doing better in the last 2 weeks and should be the favored model until verification scores flip.

[T. August]

18z gefs looking healthy. Not quite done running.

[clskinsfan]

GFS with another chance on the 19th. Temps are a problem. But too early to worry about that. 

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

where?

Ohhh you sadist