February Medium/Long Range Thread

[stormtracker]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

I wouldn't have done it if I wasn't sure. I've learned 

Also i edited my kuchera image - there was more snow after that

Yeah, I usually see the FOLKS coming a mile away.  Good job.

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

I haven’t seen stuff like this since we were once friends in Evergreen meadows

Man it sure would be nice to get another one of these. Maybe we can be friends again. 

[Ji]

There is another 1042 high coming down lol

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah, I usually see the FOLKS coming a mile away.  Good job.

This might be JAWS worthy...

[dailylurker]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

I haven’t seen stuff like this since we were once friends in Evergreen meadows

This reminds me of that gfs run about a week before the 2016 monster. Wow! What a fun run. LFG

[winter_warlock]

 Ok ok. The big guns euro and the gfs Crushes us but.... What does the CRAS say? 

[Scraff]

1 minute ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

The SFBI (Scraff Fridge Beer Index) is extremely high during that period!  Like +25 standard deviations!  No room for any brie cheese or yogurts, the shelves will be bulging with high-quality beers!

Actually I just checked. I’m good. Just praying the shelves hold. 

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, T. August said:

North of Bmore fringed. Sound the @North Balti Zen alarm.

You want it exactly where it is right now. BTW similar to PD2 there will be a warm layer above 850 that intrudes into that firehose to our south. Being a little NW of that is not a bad place to be. Not that ending up with 20” of snow and sleet would be bad either. But some of those places showing 25” will probably in reality mix more from a mid level warm layer the gfs won’t see. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Just now, Scraff said:

Actually I just checked. I’m good. Just praying the shelves hold. 

You should have enough room for a tub of Helluvagood dip!

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

similar to PD2

all I'm reading is you are already calling for a PD2 redux?

[psuhoffman]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

all I'm reading is you are already calling for a PD2 redux?

The setup has some similarities. 

[Solution Man]

[HighStakes]

We could finally have an event that's not out of here in 6 hours. Let's reel this one in!

[Ji]

This reminds me of that gfs run about a week before the 2016 monster. Wow! What a fun run. LFG

That’s the last time me and aldi 22 lived in same hood

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You want it exactly where it is right now. BTW similar to PD2 there will be a warm layer above 850 that intrudes into that firehose to our south. Being a little NW of that is not a bad place to be. Not that ending up with 20” of snow and sleet would be bad either. But some of those places showing 25” will probably in reality mix more from a mid level warm layer the gfs won’t see. 

[Terpeast]

Folks, we are getting into less than 1 week out for the Feb 12 system. GFS and Euro are in good agreement for now.

[SnowGolfBro]

11 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

some of this is this Saturday. like 1-3" max - only 1" at DCA

2 feet, that will work.

[winter_warlock]

Just now, Terpeast said:

Folks, we are getting into less than 1 week out for the Feb 12 system. GFS and Euro are in good agreement for now.

   Great agreement.  Only 6 days out .  What impresses me is the amazing consistency  of the ensembles!!

[DanTheMan]

Im suppose to close on a house the 13th so this is a lock 

[mitchnick]

Just now, Terpeast said:

Folks, we are getting into less than 1 week out for the Feb 12 system. GFS and Euro are in good agreement for now.

Ukie looked a lot like them too and 12z Icon wasn't far off either.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Just now, winter_warlock said:

   Great agreement.  Only 6 days out .  What impresses me is the amazing consistency  of the ensembles!!

The ensembles have been hammering this for the past several days, though initially it was not clear exactly what time period might produce this (various waves next week giving high ensemble mean amounts in total).  It now appears to be honing in on the 11th-12th as the main event.

[LP08]

AO and NAO really tanking too on the operational under 10 days.  Let’s line up the big after this big one.

[winter_warlock]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Ukie looked a lot like them too and 12z Icon wasn't far off either.

Wish ida saw the ukie snowmap lol  but unfortunately  work intruded lol

[clskinsfan]

6 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Folks, we are getting into less than 1 week out for the Feb 12 system. GFS and Euro are in good agreement for now.

The big ones always get sniffed out early. And if we are being honest the models have been signaling this for days already. I think a historic stretch is coming for all of us. 

[stormtracker]

6 minutes ago, DanTheMan said:

Im suppose to close on a house the 13th so this is a lock 

<rubbing hands together gif>

[HighStakes]

I guess the Saturday system is getting ignored and lost in the shuffle.

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

lol you’re north of the extreme mid level firehose Im talking about on this run too. But I’d be suspect of those crazy totals down in central VA as there’s very likely a mid level warm layer associated with the strong SW h7 winds partially responsible for that crazy precip band. The gfs won’t see it at this range. Remember places in central VA expected 18” before PD2 and got 8” of sleet instead. 

[clskinsfan]

6 minutes ago, DanTheMan said:

Im suppose to close on a house the 13th so this is a lock 

Take a snow shovel with you.

[stormy]

On 2/2/2025 at 1:02 PM, stormy said:

There has been a lot of hyperventilating during the past 24 hrs. after I asked a simple question, how does this winter feel different?  Common sense answers this question, but I had a reason for asking.  I hoped to hear an onslaught of shouting about how cold it has been!!

Thank you Lord!

Some have even suggested that I must be in blind denial of how cold it has been. Wow, what a joke! I have been paying close attention to the weather and climate longer than most in here have been alive.

For the past 1 - 4 years I have been trying to say that all of this often repeated nonsense about "the elephant in the room" is just that. PSU tried to convince everyone that we have warmed so much that we would soon have to move north to ever see snow again.   He has his opinion and I have mine. Unfortunately, many believed his tirades.  Have a good afternoon PSU, we're still friends.

The 1950's were benign with snow-drought seasons. In February of 1958, the door opened to a 12 year period of cold and snow. Has that door opened again?  I doubt it but this winter has certainly been a big change from recent years.

Looking forward to the next 10 - 15 days with the GFS and lesser degree ECMWF.  I want to see the big 3 in general agreement of a significant event at 192 - 216 hrs.  A lot will depend on where the boundary sets up.   Interaction between the NS and SS looks to create an unsettled period at 10 - 20 days but we are still a few days away from any reliability regarding expectations.

I well remember a year ago this month when everyone was super hyped because of EPS expectations for late February into March.  We all know how that turned out.

 

 

 

OK, we're at 180. Sunday I said 192-216

The big 3 give me 13 inches of snow next Tuesday/Wednesday.

I would give a 60% probability of 4 - 8 inches at this point.

 

[stormtracker]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

lol you’re north of the extreme mid level firehose Im talking about on this run too. But I’d be suspect of those crazy totals down in central VA as there’s very likely a mid level warm layer associated with the strong SW h7 winds partially responsible for that crazy precip band. The gfs won’t see it at this range. Remember places in central VA expected 18” before PD2 and got 8” of sleet instead. 

I'm fucking with you.   We're gonna mix.  We have to for all of us to cash in.  It is what it is.   City Living Penalty.