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February Medium/Long Range Thread


stormtracker
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  On 2/4/2025 at 8:09 PM, IronTy said:

I don't know if I got it in me to shovel another foot+ snowstorm.   I ain't as young as I used to be.  

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I hope there is 2 feet of snow in your driveway and you absolutely need to shovel it, but there are continuous 8 foot drifts.   I not only hope your back cracks and creaks each time you bend down to shovel the snow, I hope you have to shovel so much that your back is sore for at least 3 days.  

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  On 2/4/2025 at 8:16 PM, stormtracker said:

I hope there is 2 feet of snow in your driveway and you absolutely need to shovel it, but there are continuous 8 foot drifts.   I not only hope your back cracks and creaks each time you bend down to shovel the snow, I hope you have to shovel so much that your back is sore for at least 3 days.  

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 Oh man I hoping for that!!!

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  On 2/4/2025 at 8:16 PM, stormtracker said:

I hope there is 2 feet of snow in your driveway and you absolutely need to shovel it, but there are continuous 8 foot drifts.   I not only hope your back cracks and creaks each time you bend down to shovel the snow, I hope you have to shovel so much that your back is sore for at least 3 days.  

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2ft of snow would be over yo head.  8ft drifts would be 4 stormtrackers high

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  On 2/4/2025 at 8:16 PM, stormtracker said:

I hope there is 2 feet of snow in your driveway and you absolutely need to shovel it, but there are continuous 8 foot drifts.   I not only hope your back cracks and creaks each time you bend down to shovel the snow, I hope you have to shovel so much that your back is sore for at least 3 days.  

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I think I'd just go Donner party or Shining at that point.  They could dig out what was left of me in spring.  

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  On 2/4/2025 at 9:53 PM, Terpeast said:

You're joking, right? That's a HECS signal

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Well the full-run mean is about 9 or 10" so depending on the spread of members, 25% for 12" sounds about right. And the mean includes potentially multiple waves. The definition of HECS could be argued forever, but to me there is clearly a "signal" for a significant/major snowstorm next week. Nothing about it screams historic to me as this kind of output would be expected at this range maybe once or twice per winter on average. Since ensembles are run every 6 hours, only a fraction of the major storm "signals" are ultimately verified as major snow events... even fewer as historic.

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  On 2/4/2025 at 10:03 PM, eduggs said:

Nothing about it screams historic to me as this kind of output would be expected at this range maybe once or twice per winter on average. Since ensembles are run every 6 hours, only a fraction of the major storm "signals" are ultimately verified as major snow events... even fewer as historic.

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In the last 10 years, how many times have we had this type of run to run consistency, on multiple models, showing these amounts, this far out?

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