IronTy Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 I don't know if I got it in me to shovel another foot+ snowstorm. I ain't as young as I used to be. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 4 Author Share Posted February 4 On 2/4/2025 at 8:09 PM, IronTy said: I don't know if I got it in me to shovel another foot+ snowstorm. I ain't as young as I used to be. Expand I hope there is 2 feet of snow in your driveway and you absolutely need to shovel it, but there are continuous 8 foot drifts. I not only hope your back cracks and creaks each time you bend down to shovel the snow, I hope you have to shovel so much that your back is sore for at least 3 days. 3 13 1 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 On 2/4/2025 at 8:16 PM, stormtracker said: I hope there is 2 feet of snow in your driveway and you absolutely need to shovel it, but there are continuous 8 foot drifts. I not only hope your back cracks and creaks each time you bend down to shovel the snow, I hope you have to shovel so much that your back is sore for at least 3 days. Expand Oh man I hoping for that!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 On 2/4/2025 at 8:16 PM, stormtracker said: I hope there is 2 feet of snow in your driveway and you absolutely need to shovel it, but there are continuous 8 foot drifts. I not only hope your back cracks and creaks each time you bend down to shovel the snow, I hope you have to shovel so much that your back is sore for at least 3 days. Expand 2ft of snow would be over yo head. 8ft drifts would be 4 stormtrackers high 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 4 Author Share Posted February 4 On 2/4/2025 at 8:26 PM, H2O said: 2ft of snow would be over yo head. 8ft drifts would be 4 stormtrackers high Expand I have no witty comeback at this time. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 On 2/4/2025 at 8:28 PM, stormtracker said: I have no witty comeback at this time. Expand Its ok, sparky. If we get that much snow my back will give out in 10 min. Why? Because I'm old. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 On 2/4/2025 at 8:28 PM, stormtracker said: I have no witty comeback at this time. Expand Weather Forum Boxing Match on the Mall. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 a little disappointing but EPS says 24% chance for a 12 or more inches? Is that good for this far out? 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 On 2/4/2025 at 8:16 PM, stormtracker said: I hope there is 2 feet of snow in your driveway and you absolutely need to shovel it, but there are continuous 8 foot drifts. I not only hope your back cracks and creaks each time you bend down to shovel the snow, I hope you have to shovel so much that your back is sore for at least 3 days. Expand I think I'd just go Donner party or Shining at that point. They could dig out what was left of me in spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 On 2/4/2025 at 9:00 PM, Ji said: a little disappointing but EPS says 24% chance for a 12 or more inches? Is that good for this far out? Expand You're joking, right? That's a HECS signal 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 I’m assuming everyone is GooFus watching. I’d love to see it fall in line with King Euro. I need some happy hour F bombs! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 On 2/4/2025 at 9:53 PM, Terpeast said: You're joking, right? That's a HECS signal Expand Well the full-run mean is about 9 or 10" so depending on the spread of members, 25% for 12" sounds about right. And the mean includes potentially multiple waves. The definition of HECS could be argued forever, but to me there is clearly a "signal" for a significant/major snowstorm next week. Nothing about it screams historic to me as this kind of output would be expected at this range maybe once or twice per winter on average. Since ensembles are run every 6 hours, only a fraction of the major storm "signals" are ultimately verified as major snow events... even fewer as historic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 On 2/4/2025 at 8:55 PM, Kmlwx said: Weather Forum Boxing Match on the Mall. Expand Celebrity deathmatch...@stormtracker vs. @H2O!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 GFS isn't nothing for next Saturday - 1-3" areawide then more ice. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 sorry im now back in the office 5 days a week so my midday posting is down... this is a 24hr median on the EPS. Wowza 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 On 2/4/2025 at 10:03 PM, eduggs said: Nothing about it screams historic to me as this kind of output would be expected at this range maybe once or twice per winter on average. Expand Maybe in Vermont 1 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 On 2/4/2025 at 10:09 PM, NorthArlington101 said: sorry im now back in the office 5 days a week so my midday posting is down... this is a 24hr median on the EPS. Wowza Expand Wow that is quite the signal for a week out. Pretty hard to not like this threat a lot with looks like that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 GFS will be farther N this run I believe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 On 2/4/2025 at 10:12 PM, psuhoffman said: Maybe in Vermont lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 On 2/4/2025 at 10:14 PM, Heisy said: GFS will be farther N this run I believe . Expand It does look that way soo far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 On 2/4/2025 at 10:14 PM, Heisy said: GFS will be farther N this run I believe.So much earlier than the euro. The euro hasn’t developed the storm yet at 138 and it’s snowing in dc in gfs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 On 2/4/2025 at 10:14 PM, Heisy said: GFS will be farther N this run I believe . Expand Central VA getting smoked at 144 - might be a run where it crawls north again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 On 2/4/2025 at 10:16 PM, NorthArlington101 said: Central VA getting smoked at 144 - might be a run where it crawls north again Expand or slides out to sea at 153 - we'll see if the next wave can kick it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 On 2/4/2025 at 10:14 PM, Heisy said: GFS will be farther N this run I believe . Expand Might have jumped the gun here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Its a Breeze Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 On 2/4/2025 at 10:03 PM, eduggs said: Nothing about it screams historic to me as this kind of output would be expected at this range maybe once or twice per winter on average. Since ensembles are run every 6 hours, only a fraction of the major storm "signals" are ultimately verified as major snow events... even fewer as historic. Expand In the last 10 years, how many times have we had this type of run to run consistency, on multiple models, showing these amounts, this far out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 round 2 getting organized at 159 - snowing decently DCA at 162 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 FOLKS 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Are we looking at the same thing?? Gfs looks fine 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Looks pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 GFS keying on a different shortwave? ETA: Nevermind, just looked a bit more closely and I realized people were looking at the wave on Monday perhaps? Not the one for around Feb. 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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