February Medium/Long Range Thread

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, aldie 22 said:

It is early

Shit. 

[frd]

 

Improved trends on the AO, some members tank it to extreme negative values, - 4 to -6 SD.  This ups the potential of 6 inch or greater snowfall in our area.

The drop in the AO from +4 SD back in October to negative is even more pronouced ( quicker ) this go around. ( even though we started

at +3 SD versus + 4 SD )

Depending on SPV and future heat fluxes, the real bottom to the AO may not even occur until March, in a repeating cycle downward. 

Also, improvements in the NAO and the PNA are noted as well.  

 

 

 

 

 

[SnowenOutThere]

8 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

Sterling mentions the amazing consistency  in the ensembles for next weeks coastal storm.....

While just outside the realm of this forecast, global
ensembles are remarkably consistent on a possible coastal storm by
the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe next week. Given it is still over a
week away, details will certainly change in the coming days.

Seems like its not often at all when Sterling goes outside its forecast range, really speaks to how impressive the signal is. 

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Seems like its not often at all when Sterling goes outside its forecast range, really speaks to how impressive the signal is. 

Sounds ominous...we like ominous

[adelphi_sky]

19 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Sounds ominous...we like ominous

Cue Spaceballs intro scene. 

[stormtracker]

Well, getting ready for the GFS show.   Models seem insistent on something happening next week.   Feeling pretty good about it tbh.    But we gotta face the real possibility of yes, a thump, but some ice sealing it in.   

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Well, getting ready for the GFS show.   Models seem insistent on something happening next week.   Feeling pretty good about it tbh.    But we gotta face the real possibility of yes, a thump, but some ice sealing it in.   

Let the church say "Well"

[Ji]

6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Well, getting ready for the GFS show.   Models seem insistent on something happening next week.   Feeling pretty good about it tbh.    But we gotta face the real possibility of yes, a thump, but some ice sealing it in.   

icon looks like its ready to destroy us

[Chris78]

7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Well, getting ready for the GFS show.   Models seem insistent on something happening next week.   Feeling pretty good about it tbh.    But we gotta face the real possibility of yes, a thump, but some ice sealing it in.   

Hoping to see the F word at some point here

[Solution Man]

2 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Hoping to see the F word at some point here

We will here that F word

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

icon looks like its ready to destroy us

Juicy

[DDweatherman]

Just now, Solution Man said:

We will here that F word

Reminder for randy F word is 10+ so he can use it today. Cue'ing Phil collins...

[Solution Man]

Just now, DDweatherman said:

Reminder for randy F word is 10+ so he can use it today. Cue'ing Phil collins...

yes

[T. August]

7 minutes ago, Ji said:

icon looks like its ready to destroy us

I like how cold it is too. CAD looks good.

[stormtracker]

6 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Reminder for randy F word is 10+ so he can use it today. Cue'ing Phil collins...

12 is minimum for me.

[stormtracker]

10 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Hoping to see the F word at some point here

Well, there are two options that I use.  Both are 4 letters.  

[stormtracker]

12 minutes ago, Ji said:

icon looks like its ready to destroy us

You weren't kidding.  Hopefully it'll keep gaining latitude.

[snowmagnet]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Well, there are two options that I use.  Both are 4 letters.  

Folks has 5 letters.  

[stormtracker]

Just now, snowmagnet said:

Folks has 5 letters.  

I'm so off this morning.  I said knew instead of new and now I can't count.  Today's pbp might be 6 letters.  Fucked.

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

I'm so off this morning.  I said knew instead of new and now I can't count.  Today's pbp might be 6 letters.  Fucked.

or you'll say FUCKS

[stormtracker]

To be fair, i was at my neighborhood bar last night and got tore up. I asked for a shot and this was the bartender’s version of a shot.  I had “several”. On a work night.  Complete dumb ass. 

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

You weren't kidding.  Hopefully it'll keep gaining latitude.

If you put it in motion, it looks like it makes it.

[Solution Man]

Cold air sagging south quicker this run at 78

[snowmagnet]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

I'm so off this morning.  I said knew instead of new and now I can't count.  Today's pbp might be 6 letters.  Fucked.

Ha ha. We love Folks...  around here.  Only from you.  Looking forward to more pop's the new few weeks. Hope you don't need to sleep

[mitchnick]

Gfs looking colder to start on Saturday  fwiw.

[stormtracker]

Feb 8 is still there...same scenario...some light icing looks like

[stormtracker]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Gfs looking colder to start on Saturday  fwiw.

Looks a bit warmer as it progresses. 

[stormtracker]

Just now, aldie 22 said:

Saturday or next week?

Saturday.  Won't close in on next week's panels for another 5-10 mins or so

[Solution Man]

Round 2 begins....snow to ice event. 1-2 incher then ice

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Round 2 begins

It's a dud