February Medium/Long Range Thread

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I'm thinking models are too bullish.. We never have below average 500mb. 

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSHGTAVGNH_0z/ensloopmref.html

Hope I'm wrong. 

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GFS. There is also significant icing verbatim. 11-12 storm

[Heisy]

Trend on the EPS to shift the EPO ridge N which is pumping up the SE ridge beyond the 10-12th period, at least temporarily. So while the Feb 10-12 event is on the table, there might be a brief delay after that before true Barney could arrive





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[Weather Will]

EPO actually goes positive, hopefully not a trend...

[Ralph Wiggum]

48 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Trend on the EPS to shift the EPO ridge N which is pumping up the SE ridge beyond the 10-12th period, at least temporarily. So while the Feb 10-12 event is on the table, there might be a brief delay after that before true Barney could arrive





.

Is the mint pattern still on target to arrive after the 20th or did the epo change mitigate that?

[nj2va]

1 hour ago, Heisy said:

Trend on the EPS to shift the EPO ridge N which is pumping up the SE ridge beyond the 10-12th period, at least temporarily. So while the Feb 10-12 event is on the table, there might be a brief delay after that before true Barney could arrive





.

Is that a trend or one run?

[frd]

40 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Is the mint pattern still on target to arrive after the 20th or did the epo change mitigate that?

Will not name names but some posters in other forums close to ours question the longevity of the pattern after the 20th. 

Jeez, we didn't even get a real pattern change yet IMHO.  

 

[MDScienceTeacher]

6 hours ago, Ji said:

Psu I did a calculation and it was shocking. Since 14-15....dulles has had 21 inches of snow in February. That's beyond comprehension

Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk
 

We have had stretches like this before.  This is BWI: 86-95 

[MDScienceTeacher]

4 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said:

We have had stretches like this before.  This is BWI: 86-95 

And 68-77:

[MDScienceTeacher]

2 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said:

And 68-77:

26-32 was particularly bad: 

[brooklynwx99]

1 hour ago, Heisy said:

Trend on the EPS to shift the EPO ridge N which is pumping up the SE ridge beyond the 10-12th period, at least temporarily. So while the Feb 10-12 event is on the table, there might be a brief delay after that before true Barney could arrive





.

it looks temporary. not really worried about that

[Terpeast]

6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

it looks temporary. not really worried about that

Looks like a temporary blip. The feb 11-12 storm is there on the means, and milder air comes right after as the cold high moves offshore, then another cold air push in the 14-15 day range

[nj2va]

26 minutes ago, frd said:

Will not name names but some posters in other forums close to ours question the longevity of the pattern after the 20th. 

Jeez, we didn't even get a real pattern change yet IMHO.  

 

why are we talking about a change in the pattern before the pattern changed? 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, nj2va said:

why are we talking about a change in the pattern before the pattern changed? 

You're new here.

[frd]

5 minutes ago, nj2va said:

why are we talking about a change in the pattern before the pattern changed? 

Not me, other forum, I think that's silly.   

[aldie 22]

4 minutes ago, frd said:

Not me, other forum, I think that's silly.   

I'll name names lol 

 

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Anyone else feel this advertised great pattern after Feb 20 is going to turn out to be meh and the real show is actually over the next week and a half to two weeks?

 

[EastonSN+]

30 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

it looks temporary. not really worried about that

Yeah, this looks to be the positive/neutral EPO period in the depiction below. 

[Allsnow]

43 minutes ago, frd said:

Will not name names but some posters in other forums close to ours question the longevity of the pattern after the 20th. 

Jeez, we didn't even get a real pattern change yet IMHO.  

 

We have some real winners in our forum 

[WVclimo]

2 hours ago, Weather Will said:

EPO actually goes positive, hopefully not a trend...

AO and NAO remain solidly negative. Looks great!

[Weather Will]

Take one week at a time. I am focusing on the pending ice event and the potential for 6-12 inches the middle of next week.  Worry about the rest of February after that.  

[poolz1]

Im ok with the EPO being neutral to slightly neg on average.  Don't get me wrong, the Jan pattern was fun but cold and dry was the main feature and was due to the massive +PNA/-EPO ridge.  Even a few days ago the ops were hinting at another return of the avocado due to the impressive -EPO.   I do get the lowlands wanting that massive push of cold to set the stage but we are later in the season and a -AO/NAO combo should be all we need.  Maybe higher risks of rain/ice but def higher reward potential imo.

[Ji]

its very hard to have all 3(EPO/AO and NAO) negative at the same time.....id rather take my chances with AO/NAO. They scream snow much more than a -EPO

[osfan24]

Just now, Ji said:

its very hard to have all 3(EPO/AO and NAO) negative at the same time.....id rather take my chances with AO/NAO. They scream snow much more than a -EPO

Same. Give me the negative AO/NAO combo and I'll roll the dice. We are going to get crushed eventually.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

6z Euro has a little snow for DC on Saturday

[frd]

11 minutes ago, Ji said:

its very hard to have all 3(EPO/AO and NAO) negative at the same time.....id rather take my chances with AO/NAO. They scream snow much more than a -EPO

So true, its like the Holy Grail for setting up MECS.  

[brooklynwx99]

why even bother talking about a potential pattern hiccup when this is on the horizon? lmao

[deer]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

why even bother talking about a potential pattern hiccup when this is on the horizon? lmao

[stormtracker]

17 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

why even bother talking about a potential pattern hiccup when this is on the horizon? lmao

You new here? 

[aldie 22]

5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

You knew here? 

It is early

[winter_warlock]

Sterling mentions the amazing consistency  in the ensembles for next weeks coastal storm.....

While just outside the realm of this forecast, global
ensembles are remarkably consistent on a possible coastal storm by
the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe next week. Given it is still over a
week away, details will certainly change in the coming days.