February Medium/Long Range Thread

[Ji]

We don’t deserve the Canadian…never mind

[Solution Man]

Round 5 with a 1050H to the north

[NorthArlington101]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

0-4. Hopefully #5

This is more than the GEFS snow mean for this period for the last gazillion runs so even though it looked boring with how it played out I think we’d have to be okay with it 

[Maestrobjwa]

Kinda feel like all of these could have some degree of mixy-messy in them. With the blocking still being a couple weeks away it would seem logical that we'd be dancing with the r/s line until then.

[WVclimo]

18 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Look at all the QPF we hypothetically lose to ice this next week

That BAMwx video Mitch shared mentioned Feb 1994 as an analog.

[NorthArlington101]

2 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Round 5 with a 1050H to the north

 (Ice)

[Terpeast]

Ice ice baby

[Ji]

0-5

We just lost 40 inches of snow in one run

[Solution Man]

I’m going to bed…crappy runs tonight 

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, Ji said:

0-5

We just lost 40 inches of snow in one run

Even after all this time ya can't handle fantasy land changes like that?

[psuhoffman]

33 minutes ago, Ji said:

I hope this ain’t becoming Feb 2007 when the models had 20 plus inches for days before a last minute shift changed it to a ice storm

But isn’t that expected to some degree.  The best analogs to this pattern are more icy than snowy for our area. That’s why I said I’m less sure of this period. Models often adjust to the analogs of what more typically happens once inside day 7. 
 

This is not to say we won’t get snow or can’t even get the crazy amounts some runs show, but are we really expecting that when history suggests more ice and less snow is the more common outcome?   

[jayyy]

0-5

We just lost 40 inches of snow in one run

Who cares. These threats are 1-2 weeks away Are we actually living and dying by each run THIS far out?

[WhiteoutMD]

I think Saturday's upside is a snowier Wednesday/Thursday event... no shot we don't mix seemingly.


^ most of this is "ice"

Wow


.

[psuhoffman]

Through day 10, which is honestly as far out as it even matters…0z gefs is snowier 

0z on top, 18z below 

 

[psuhoffman]

Think of it this way…once past 120 hours each permutation is about equally likely. There are plenty of big members. This run the op happened to be one of the lesser ones which is equally likely looking at the full spread of options. 
 

Also this snow is from several waves so a mean of 7” looks exciting but maybe less so when you see the details and it all came 2” at a time from snow to ice to rain events which is what we’re probably looking at. 
 

But I thought it was just a win we were tracking frozen events during what was supposed to be our torch week!  

[psuhoffman]

Euro looks promising 

[Ji]

Euro looks promising 

It’s already beautiful

[psuhoffman]

Euro reminds me of a less juiced up cold enso version of PD2. 

[Ji]

Euro looks promising 

[Ji]

Euro reminds me of a less juiced up cold enso version of PD2. 

It’s the best run yet. It will be Feb 2007 in a few days lol

[psuhoffman]

Just now, Ji said:

With a decent amount of sleet and freezing rain on top of the snow also. Which is good if we want it to survive the rain when we inevitably end up on the wrong side of the boundary for some of the waves to come!  

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

It’s the best run yet. It will be Feb 2007 in a few days lol

What did you get from that storm?  It was like 8” of snow/sleet/freezing rain that ended up a solid glacier that lasted almost until April here. I’d take that again!  

[Ji]

With a decent amount of sleet and freezing rain on top of the snow also. Which is good if we want it to survive the rain when we inevitably end up on the wrong side of the boundary for some of the waves to come!  

We might have 8 9 large precip events before March 15 lol…if we can just win 3 of them

[Ji]

What did you get from that storm?  It was like 8” of snow/sleet/freezing rain that ended up a solid glacier that lasted almost until April here. I’d take that again!  

I think i got 5.5 inches of sleet and no snow. It was crippling because it was impossible to shovel

[psuhoffman]

That period must not have been as good down there. You keep talking about 2007 like a fail. But from mid Feb to mid March I had an 8” ice storm followed by a 4” snow to ice event then a 6” snow in March. The winter as a whole was a fail because I had no snow at all before that period. But mid Feb to mid March was plenty good imo. 

[midatlanticweather]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

What did you get from that storm?  It was like 8” of snow/sleet/freezing rain that ended up a solid glacier that lasted almost until April here. I’d take that again!  

I remember the ice not being able to be plowed and breaking equipment. Was definitely glaciers

[Ji]

What did you get from that storm?  It was like 8” of snow/sleet/freezing rain that ended up a solid glacier that lasted almost until April here. I’d take that again!  

I’ll never forget that while the models were still showing it as snow …Wes compared it to Feb 1983

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

I’ll never forget that while the models were still showing it as snow …Wes compared it to Feb 1983

What was the enso state in 2007?

[Ji]

That period must not have been as good down there. You keep talking about 2007 like a fail. But from mid Feb to mid March I had an 8” ice storm followed by a 4” snow to ice event then a 6” snow in March. The winter as a whole was a fail because I had no snow at all before that period. But mid Feb to mid March was plenty good imo. 

I mean it was a fail if you like snow. The sleet storm was heavy precip and mid 20s.

[Ji]

What was the enso state in 2007?

I think Nino but not positive