February Medium/Long Range Thread

[mitchnick]

7 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Go big or go home before i go to California in March 

Forever or bidness?

[ravensrule]

15 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said:

It's okay, I love your old weenie.

Thank you P Diddy. 

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Forever or bidness?

Work thankfully 

[mitchnick]

18z Gefs are crazy.

[ravensrule]

Just now, mitchnick said:

18z Gefs are crazy.

Imagine saying that to Pee Wee Herman without visual proof. 

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

18z Gefs are crazy.

Go on. . .

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

The end of the run is very disappointing.  I'll need time to reconsider my feelings. 《insert Barry Manilow cd here》

Not surprising, the gfs op looks nothing like the gefs at h5 at range. GEFS still has the tpv in a favorable spot underneath the negative nao where the op rotted the tpv and linked the nao with the ser. Crisis averted 

[frd]

10 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

18z Gefs are crazy.

You think the worse of the snow ( lots of snow ) is before the 20th or after the 20 th 

Lets put odds on it ?  

[Ralph Wiggum]

11 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

18z Gefs are crazy.

[mitchnick]

12z on top 18z on bottom. Not finished.

[frd]

https://x.com/burgwx/status/1886548148765573403

The EPS are impressively bullish on the potential for a moderate or major Mid Atlantic/Northeast snowstorm between Feb 11-14. At these lead times I wouldn’t read too much into the specifics — just that a major snowstorm potential in this region exists

 

 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Yeah, what's up with that? The good period advertised looks worse than the lead-up.  Before anyone says it, I know it's the op at farthest range and likely wont look anything like that at 384. But wouldnt it be some shit we get crushed during the reload then go into a relax after the 20th, the old bait n switch?

It was a 1-2 day warm up before that next trough digs in. 

[Weather Will]

29 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

18z Gefs are crazy.

Lots of big hits....WB

[frd]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

Lots of big hits....WB

 

This looks better than yesterday's.  I can't recall , but WOW ! 

 

 

[psuhoffman]

48 minutes ago, Ji said:

You know for your pattern we are not gonna have the same moisture flow as the next 2 weeks most likely.

Yea. The most likely fail the next 2 weeks is rain. The most likely fail weeks 3-4 is dry imo. 

[mitchnick]

Really worth watching Bam Weather update from this morning. Some decent explanations too.

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Yeah, completely different 500mb from several days ago

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSHGTAVGNH_18z/ensloopmref.html

EPS crushed it leading the way.. kind of a historic bust for the GEFS having >+300dm anomalies on the mean.. now the High pressure never centers over the N. Pacific ocean.. it's all Alaska or the Arctic circle. 

[Weather Will]

6 minutes ago, frd said:

 

This looks better than yesterday's.  I can't recall , but WOW ! 

 

 

Pretty disappointed if we don't get at least a 6 inch storm out of this. Snow on snow or 12 inches would make this a B+ year.  An HECS in late Feb or March would make it a A++.  We will see.  Fun times.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

5800dm Heights coming up for NW Russia in mid Winter!

That's the H5 loading pattern area historically for -NAO several days later

[winter_warlock]

4 hours ago, Ji said:

still a little east for who?

Looks fine to me lol

[jayyy]

Ensemble means look wild this far out. Two strong signals around the 12th and 16th. Let’s go!!!

[mitchnick]

AI mainly south and east with the 12th but has a storm for the 15th with temp issues for I95 and east.

The threats are simply out of range for the AI in all likelihood.  Maybe I'm wrong, but I'd stick with the ensembles. 

[winter_warlock]

25 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Really worth watching Bam Weather update from this morning. Some decent explanations too.

 

Great video!!

[ravensrule]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

AI mainly south and east with the 12th but has a storm for the 15th with temp issues for I95 and east.

The threats are simply out of range for the AI in all likelihood.  Maybe I'm wrong, but I'd stick with the ensembles. 

You’re never wrong, being in a wheelchair all day gives you incredible brainpower. 

[winter_warlock]

Lol sterling   calling for a low of 44 and it's already down to 39 here lol

[mitchnick]

15 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

You’re never wrong, being in a wheelchair all day gives you incredible brainpower. 

Not yet. And I still have all my original equipment...for now. 

[Terpeast]

42 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

Lol sterling   calling for a low of 44 and it's already down to 39 here lol

Forecast low of 46. I’m at 36 now. 

Temps have been underperforming for 3 days now

[Ji]

Jb said Ai cancelled the cold pattern for mid February

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

Jb said Ai cancelled the cold pattern for mid February

No Sistene Chapel teleconnection? No March 1993?

[aldie 22]

8 minutes ago, Ji said:

Jb said Ai cancelled the cold pattern for mid February

You scared?