NorthArlington101 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 On 2/3/2025 at 6:49 PM, psuhoffman said: Agreed. I think the mean looks like that now due to a high probability of a SECS to maybe MECS level event. 2016 the mean looked that way because a decent number of members were already showing 20” outcomes. Similar look from different scenarios. Expand agree with all points - just to demonstrate a little, this is the 90th percentile snowstorm as shown on the EPS. MECS to maybe borderline HECS is the current "top level" outcome 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 On 2/3/2025 at 6:40 PM, North Balti Zen said: In all seriousness, in the ten days prior to Jan 2016 Expand I don't know how the models picked out 2016 so early. I swear the CFS seasonals were showing it by late fall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 We’re still missing the Nina STJ so even if we do get a more canonical coastal later in the month it might have MECS v hecs top end potential here. But that is just playing the historical odds game. A string of secs MECS level events might be a more likely max outcome from this type pattern coming up. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 All I want is a hold and better look every day. Nif it starts to deteriorate at all it usually means it will deteriorate to nothing.. I think the pattern says this a is a good shot.. I just know... We all know... It is still model land goodness 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Gefs snowfall mean 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 On 2/3/2025 at 6:52 PM, IronTy said: I don't know how the models picked out 2016 so early. I swear the CFS seasonals were showing it by late fall. Expand Bastardi probably predicted it before labor day! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 On 2/3/2025 at 6:52 PM, psuhoffman said: We’re still missing the Nina STJ so even if we do get a more canonical coastal later in the month it might have MECS v hecs top end potential here. But that is just playing the historical odds game. A string of secs MECS level events might be a more likely max outcome from this type pattern coming up. Expand snow on top of snow on top of snow!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 On 2/3/2025 at 6:54 PM, psuhoffman said: Bastardi probably predicted it before labor day! Expand ...of 2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 I’m definitely excited for the waves day 7-15 but if we’re going to have a shot at a classic coastal 12”+ snowstorm a couple days after this would be the first (but not the last) opportunity! Wave X is moving into 50/50 and wave Y is about to dig into the TN valley. Which would be around Feb 20 lol. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 AI is back with a hit. Still a little east which hopefully changes because plenty of cold. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202502031200&interval=6&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202502121200 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 There's a near 6" snowfall mean for 2 DAYS, and 4-5" for 24 HOURS. Holy shit. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grhqofb5 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 On 2/3/2025 at 7:09 PM, bncho said: There's a near 6" snowfall mean for 2 DAYS, and 4-5" for 24 HOURS. Holy shit. Expand Sorry, I’m a lurker/reader so dumb question. What 2 day time period does this relate to? It goes out 246 hours (10 days). Or is that the total mean amount for the next 10 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 On 2/3/2025 at 7:45 PM, grhqofb5 said: Sorry, I’m a lurker/reader so dumb question. What 2 day time period does this relate to? It goes out 246 hours (10 days). Or is that the total mean amount for the next 10 days? Expand This two day time period relates to the Feb 11-13 timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grhqofb5 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 On 2/3/2025 at 7:46 PM, bncho said: This two day time period relates to the Feb 11-13 timeframe. Expand Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 On 2/3/2025 at 7:05 PM, mitchnick said: AI is back with a hit. Still a little east which hopefully changes because plenty of cold. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202502031200&interval=6&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202502121200 Expand still a little east for who? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Another day, another colder solution on the weeklies. Forget about week 1, it's the rest of the weeks thru 3/10. Scroll thru at this link. If you want to compare prior days, touch the 3 lines to the right of "Select Dimensions." https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202502030000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202502100000 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 On 2/3/2025 at 8:20 PM, Ji said: still a little east for who? Expand Those who want to be under the heaviest snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Going all the way back to 1957/1958, every single season when DCA has had two or more 6"+ snowstorms, the seasonal total has reached at least 24". That would make sense given that it's not easy to reach 6" in one storm at DCA, so that happening at least twice in one season means generally the winter was a snowy one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 buy! 7 2 6 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 On 2/3/2025 at 8:26 PM, NorthArlington101 said: buy! Expand reversed fringed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 On 2/3/2025 at 8:26 PM, NorthArlington101 said: buy! Expand Buried. Yes please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 another perspective just showing how clear this threat window is... if it wasn't already clear to the group 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 On 2/3/2025 at 8:28 PM, NorthArlington101 said: another perspective just showing how clear this threat window is... if it wasn't already clear to the group Expand Hmm, bit of a lag until the next threat. J/K would be hard to see that far out, but the 12 th and 13 th are clear as day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 I’ve never seen this. Ever. 18 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 18” at BWI over that period is about 175% of climo. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Andrew Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 On 2/3/2025 at 8:38 PM, psuhoffman said: I’ve never seen this. Ever. Expand Were the Euro ensembles doing long term runs back in 2010? Would be interested if that mammoth month was forecasted. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 On 2/3/2025 at 8:28 PM, NorthArlington101 said: another perspective just showing how clear this threat window is... if it wasn't already clear to the group Expand Literally 3/50 members with nothing in that window. Bananas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 On 2/3/2025 at 8:38 PM, psuhoffman said: I’ve never seen this. Ever. Expand If that verifies I think this winter will be the snowiest and coldest winter since 2014 for DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 On 2/3/2025 at 8:42 PM, Paleocene said: Literally 3/50 members with nothing in that window. Bananas! Expand Usually we see 3/50 members WITH a hit, and that's when we get interested in tracking. But 47/50? Geez 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 On 2/3/2025 at 8:38 PM, psuhoffman said: I’ve never seen this. Ever. Expand If it doesn't happen then at least we'll have found a new way to fail. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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