February Medium/Long Range Thread

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Agreed. I think the mean looks like that now due to a high probability of a SECS to maybe MECS level event.  2016 the mean looked that way because a decent number of members were already showing 20” outcomes. Similar look from different scenarios. 

agree with all points - just to demonstrate a little, this is the 90th percentile snowstorm as shown on the EPS. MECS to maybe borderline HECS is the current "top level" outcome

[IronTy]

10 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

In all seriousness, in the ten days prior to Jan 2016 

I don't know how the models picked out 2016 so early.  I swear the CFS seasonals were showing it by late fall.  

[psuhoffman]

We’re still missing the Nina STJ so even if we do get a more canonical coastal later in the month it might have MECS v hecs top end potential here. But that is just playing the historical odds game.  A string of secs MECS level events might be a more likely max outcome from this type pattern coming up. 

[midatlanticweather]

All I want is a hold and better look every day. Nif it starts to deteriorate at all it usually means it will deteriorate to nothing.. I think the pattern says this a is a good shot.. I just know... We all know... It is still model land goodness

[mitchnick]

Gefs snowfall mean 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, IronTy said:

I don't know how the models picked out 2016 so early.  I swear the CFS seasonals were showing it by late fall.  

Bastardi probably predicted it before labor day! 

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

We’re still missing the Nina STJ so even if we do get a more canonical coastal later in the month it might have MECS v hecs top end potential here. But that is just playing the historical odds game.  A string of secs MECS level events might be a more likely max outcome from this type pattern coming up. 

snow on top of snow on top of snow!!

[IronTy]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Bastardi probably predicted it before labor day! 

...of 2014

[psuhoffman]

I’m definitely excited for the waves day 7-15 but if we’re going to have a shot at a classic coastal 12”+ snowstorm a couple days after this would be the first (but not the last) opportunity!  

Wave X is moving into 50/50 and wave Y is about to dig into the TN valley. Which would be around Feb 20 lol. 

[mitchnick]

AI is back with a hit. Still a little east which hopefully changes because plenty of cold.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202502031200&interval=6&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202502121200

[bncho]

There's a near 6" snowfall mean for 2 DAYS, and 4-5" for 24 HOURS.
Holy shit.

[grhqofb5]

32 minutes ago, bncho said:

There's a near 6" snowfall mean for 2 DAYS, and 4-5" for 24 HOURS.
Holy shit.

Sorry, I’m a lurker/reader so dumb question.  What 2 day time period does this relate to? It goes out 246 hours (10 days).  Or is that the total mean amount for the next 10 days?

[bncho]

Just now, grhqofb5 said:

Sorry, I’m a lurker/reader so dumb question.  What 2 day time period does this relate to? It goes out 246 hours (10 days).  Or is that the total mean amount for the next 10 days?

This two day time period relates to the Feb 11-13 timeframe.

[grhqofb5]

8 minutes ago, bncho said:

This two day time period relates to the Feb 11-13 timeframe.

Thanks

[Ji]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

AI is back with a hit. Still a little east which hopefully changes because plenty of cold.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202502031200&interval=6&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202502121200

still a little east for who?

[mitchnick]

Another day, another colder solution on the weeklies. Forget about week 1, it's the rest of the weeks thru 3/10.

Scroll thru at this link. If you want to compare prior days, touch the 3 lines to the right of "Select Dimensions."

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202502030000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202502100000

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

still a little east for who?

Those who want to be under the heaviest snow.

[gymengineer]

Going all the way back to 1957/1958, every single season when DCA has had two or more 6"+ snowstorms, the seasonal total has reached at least 24".  That would make sense given that it's not easy to reach 6" in one storm at DCA, so that happening at least twice in one season means generally the winter was a snowy one.

[NorthArlington101]

buy!

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

buy!

reversed fringed

[Paleocene]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

buy!

Buried. Yes please

[NorthArlington101]

another perspective just showing how clear this threat window is... if it wasn't already clear to the group

[frd]

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

another perspective just showing how clear this threat window is... if it wasn't already clear to the group

 

Hmm, bit of a lag until the next threat. J/K would be hard to see that far out, but the 12 th and 13 th are clear as day. 

 

 

[psuhoffman]

I’ve never seen this. Ever. 

[WxUSAF]

18” at BWI over that period is about 175% of climo. 

[Jersey Andrew]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

I’ve never seen this. Ever. 

Were the Euro ensembles doing long term runs back in 2010? Would be interested if that mammoth month was forecasted.

[Paleocene]

13 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

another perspective just showing how clear this threat window is... if it wasn't already clear to the group

 

Literally 3/50 members with nothing in that window. Bananas!

[bncho]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’ve never seen this. Ever. 

If that verifies I think this winter will be the snowiest and coldest winter since 2014 for DCA.

[Terpeast]

Just now, Paleocene said:

Literally 3/50 members with nothing in that window. Bananas!

Usually we see 3/50 members WITH a hit, and that's when we get interested in tracking. But 47/50? Geez

[IronTy]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’ve never seen this. Ever. 

If it doesn't happen then at least we'll have found a new way to fail.