NorthArlington101 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 thump to rain for the 12th 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: thump to rain for the 12th ya thats not going to work boss 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: lol Lol? Translate for those of us that don't read 500mb as well (I'd imagine we down here would like that boundary a tick south?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Lol? Translate for those of us that don't read 500mb as well (I'd imagine we down here would like that boundary a tick south?) That longitudinally extended trop PV beneath a -NAO/-AO is a feature of our big dogs. 6 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Lol? Translate for those of us that don't read 500mb as well (I'd imagine we down here would like that boundary a tick south?) Appears we are closer to the reaches of the SER versus true arctic air. Like I was saying earlier, I like it much, much colder. Hopefully, the pattern progression, ( MJO, AO, NAO ) will push the boundaries South, the blues. That could open the door to a MECS pattern. I was mislead last year by the models, and the years before, I am not getting my hopes up just yet. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: That longitudinally extended trop PV beneath a -NAO/-AO is a feature of our big dogs. Triple phase potential. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 7 minutes ago, frd said: Appears we are closer to the reaches of the SER versus true arctic air. Like I was saying earlier, I like it much, much colder. Hopefully, the pattern progression, ( MJO, AO, NAO ) will push the boundaries South, the blues. That could open the door to a MECS pattern. I was mislead last year by the models, and the years before, I am not getting my hopes up just yet. I don't think any of us are banking on a single thing just yet outside of the next 4 or 5 days....at least they shouldn't be. This is still all just potential and windows of opportunity. Maybe a discrete opportunity around the 11th-12th starting to gain traction. But most of us know epic patterns don't always produce. The fact we are seeing the epic pattern evolve at least gives hope and chances. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 CMCE has an amazing snow mean - and it's only 264 hours out. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 19 minutes ago, Ji said: ya thats not going to work boss Was that you accusing me of big dog hunting about 2 hours ago? 2 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 WB 12Z EPS: busy at work what is wrong with this?! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jon_snow Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 I've seen these maps show dates from 2/12 to 12/19. Are there multiple storms we're talking about here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 WB 12Z EPS....lot of big hits and several still to the south.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 4 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z EPS: busy at work what is wrong with this?! Not a thing IF it happens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Was that you accusing me of big dog hunting about 2 hours ago? Since when do op runs show less than the ensemble mean lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 16 minutes ago, frd said: Appears we are closer to the reaches of the SER versus true arctic air. Like I was saying earlier, I like it much, much colder. Hopefully, the pattern progression, ( MJO, AO, NAO ) will push the boundaries South, the blues. That could open the door to a MECS pattern. I was mislead last year by the models, and the years before, I am not getting my hopes up just yet. I’m good with some SER with that blocking. Yea some waves could rain but I’m tired of dry and fringed and coastal scrapers and congrats Florida. I’ll take my chances on a wet pattern with blocking and the boundary near us. 10 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 I’d wager the NBM for next week is a widespread warning level event. That’s quite impressive for D9ish. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 4 minutes ago, Ji said: Since when do op runs show less than the ensemble mean lol Often? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigCountry Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 11 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z EPS: busy at work what is wrong with this?! It is 12 days out....that is what is wrong with it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Anybody remember seeing this kind of 24 hour ensemble snowfall mean on the Eps on a 8-9 day threat? 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 This is a 24 hour mean - that's a "woof woof" big dog signal right there. Timeframe has been locked in for 2-days and keeps looking better. 24hr median is equally nutso 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Anybody remember seeing this kind of 24 hour ensemble snowfall mean on the Eps on a 8-9 day threat? In all seriousness, in the ten days prior to Jan 2016 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: This is a 24 hour mean - that's a "woof woof" big dog signal right there. Timeframe has been locked in for 2-days and keeps looking better. 24hr median is equally nutso Waiting for someone to ask what the big deal is it is showing a 3-6" storm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said: In all seriousness, in the ten days prior to Jan 2016 That's what I was thinking and that's why I asked. I didn't want to be the one to say it! Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Waiting for someone to ask what the big deal is it is showing a 3-6" storm Only 3-5" 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Only 3-5" Pass then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: That's what I was thinking and that's why I asked. I didn't want to be the one to say it! Lol Not to get too far ahead of ourselves, but next week isn’t looking like that level to me. Potential for that type of thing comes later in February I’d wag. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 7 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Anybody remember seeing this kind of 24 hour ensemble snowfall mean on the Eps on a 8-9 day threat? Last time was 2016 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Not to get too far ahead of ourselves, but next week isn’t looking like that level to me. Potential for that type of thing comes later in February I’d wag. I agree the result won't be the same, but it is likely the last time we saw a 24hr snowfall mean like that. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Not to get too far ahead of ourselves, but next week isn’t looking like that level to me. Potential for that type of thing comes later in February I’d wag. Agreed. I think the mean looks like that now due to a high probability of a SECS to maybe MECS level event. 2016 the mean looked that way because a decent number of members were already showing 20” outcomes. Similar look from different scenarios. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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