February Medium/Long Range Thread

[mitchnick]

Geps 0z snowfall mean closer to Eps.

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Geps 0z snowfall mean closer to Eps.

I have to drive to NW New Jersey on the 11th for a meeting on the 12th. Hopefully they still know how to clear the Jersey turnpike. All 3 ensembles look pretty dang good to my old eyes

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

I have to drive to NW New Jersey on the 11th for a meeting on the 12th. Hopefully they still know how to clear the Jersey turnpike. All 3 ensembles look pretty dang good to my old eyes

Nice knowin' ya'!

J/k...you'll be fine. 

[bncho]

According to the ensembles, DC is about a 50/50 to double their snowfall, and we're talking about something 240 hours out.

[Ji]

psu has been saying that before the 20th may be too soon (not that we would not take anything we get lucky with).. so that lines up better.. regardless, looking good
 

PSU is hunting for hecs. The smaller stuff does not impress him so this is why he is looking past the 20th

[Terpeast]

This is the best ensemble signal I have seen in a long time, if ever, for gulf/coastal low development at 9-10+ days out.

[87storms]

This is the best ensemble signal I have seen in a long time, if ever, for gulf/coastal low development at 9-10+ days out.

That’s not even a banana high, that’s Canada moving in.

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

This is the best ensemble signal I have seen in a long time, if ever, for gulf/coastal low development at 9-10+ days out.

Do you think this is too soon as far as having enough cold air for something like a coastal? (Thinking about what a few others have said about the blocking not happening until the next week).

[Ralph Wiggum]

Do the ens snowfall means include sleet? Always wondered this, figured now would be a good time to ask.

[mitchnick]

27 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Do the ens snowfall means include sleet? Always wondered this, figured now would be a good time to ask.

They all say 10:1, so I would say yes. But they are low when ratios are higher, so it likely comes close to balancing out.

[DarkSharkWX]

6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Do the ens snowfall means include sleet? Always wondered this, figured now would be a good time to ask.

can't speak for other websites but ik on WB at least EPS does not

[stormtracker]

59 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

I have to drive to NW New Jersey on the 11th for a meeting on the 12th. Hopefully they still know how to clear the Jersey turnpike. All 3 ensembles look pretty dang good to my old eyes

I hope your trip is cancelled while there is a 92 car backup on the turnpike with a 150 mile traffic jam of cars inching along at 2 mph because of blinding SN+ with thunder and lightening and -2 mile visibility and drifts of 8feet on the beltway. 

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I hope your trip is cancelled while there is a 92 car backup on the turnpike with a 150 mile traffic jam of cars inching along at 2 mph because of blinding SN+ with thunder and lightening and -2 mile visibility and drifts of 8feet on the beltway. 

Geez...you make my post sound like the prayers of a guardian angel.

[yoda]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Geez...you make my post sound like the prayers of a guardian angel.

It's a play off of what LC said long ago 

[yoda]

Big CAD signal on the 06z AI at 234 (the 12th into the 13th time period) - it's a hit south of the M/D line

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

Big CAD signal on the 06z AI at 234

Pics or it didn't happen

[yoda]

 

 

[mitchnick]

18 minutes ago, yoda said:

 

 

I didn't bother to post it because it was basically a miss. AI is a little unstable outside of 5 days the more I look at it as 0z it was a hit.

[stormtracker]

16 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I didn't bother to post it because it was basically a miss. AI is a little unstable outside of 5 days the more I look at it as 0z it was a hit.

Yeah, that's not as great as I thought it would be based on what Yoder was saying. 

[snowmagnet]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

PSU is hunting for hecs. The smaller stuff does not impress him so this is why he is looking past the 20th

Wait... Who is hunting the HECS? 

[IronTy]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

PSU is hunting for hecs. The smaller stuff does not impress him so this is why he is looking past the 20th

I've seen this statement over the years on here, what does "only hunting big game" mean?  I mean, we're all just sitting on our phones looking at the exact same model outputs every few hours.  We all see the same data.  

 

I'm picturing a "big game hunter" pulling up h5 maps with Fred Bear playing in the background or something.  Is that a big game hunter?

[Ji]

4 minutes ago, IronTy said:

I've seen this statement over the years on here, what does "only hunting big game" mean?  I mean, we're all just sitting on our phones looking at the exact same model outputs every few hours.  We all see the same data.  

 

I'm picturing a "big game hunter" pulling up h5 maps with Fred Bear playing in the background or something.  Is that a big game hunter?

he was willing to punt the january 5th storm that took away from potentially a historic hit a few days later. After seeing that event...i see why lol. N and W of DC didnt do well on January 5

[IronTy]

14 minutes ago, Ji said:

he was willing to punt the january 5th storm that took away from potentially a historic hit a few days later. After seeing that event...i see why lol. N and W of DC didnt do well on January 5

But that implies there is some sort of horse trading that can be done with weather.  We all just get what we get and we don't have any control over it so I still don't get the concept.  

[EastCoast NPZ]

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

I hope your trip is cancelled while there is a 92 car backup on the turnpike with a 150 mile traffic jam of cars inching along at 2 mph because of blinding SN+ with thunder and lightening and -2 mile visibility and drifts of 8feet on the beltway. 

Jeb is proudly smiling.  Next time, though, try to work in some type of bodily injury.

[stormtracker]

4 minutes ago, IronTy said:

But that implies there is some sort of horse trading that can be done with weather.  We all just get what we get and we don't have any control over it so I still don't get the concept.  

Come on.   The term is for people who are unbothered or unimpressed with a decent snow event and are chasing big foot storms (see what I did there).  They aren't vested unless it's more than x inches of snow.  That's all it means.  

[stormtracker]

5 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Jeb is proudly smiling.  Next time, though, try to work in some type of bodily injury.

Oh, you know I will.  

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this retrograding and decaying Scandi block along with the elongated TPV is often a precursor to some of our larger storms, historically. there are risks before this occurs, mainly around the 8th and 12th, but there's certainly a window for a more prototypical coastal storm between the 18-23rd

This has some of the highest potential we’ve had in a long time because it’s already cold across the continent before the pattern starts. We’ve had some pretty good patterns over the last 8 years but that all started with some scorched antecedent airmass that took weeks to get fixed. We look to jump right into threats even before the best long wave configuration sets up this time. We could have a very extended window for snow threats.

2 hours ago, midatlanticweather said:

psu has been saying that before the 20th may be too soon (not that we would not take anything we get lucky with).. so that lines up better.. regardless, looking good

 

I’m starting to become more optimistic for the reasons above that we can score before the blocking fully matures. The TPV is displaced enough and we have enough cold around that this could be the exception where we don’t have to wait for the pattern to fully mature to start getting snow!  

2 hours ago, Ji said:

PSU is hunting for hecs. The smaller stuff does not impress him so this is why he is looking past the 20th

I told you twice I wasn’t dismissing before Feb 20 just thought our BEST chances would come then. I was less sure based on the history of TNH patterns. But I’ll admit the pattern is progressing way ahead of schedule and the boundary looks to be setting up further south and I think we do have a better chance to score one of these waves than I initially thought. 

[IronTy]

9 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Come on.   The term is for people who are unbothered or unimpressed with a decent snow event and are chasing big foot storms (see what I did there).  They aren't vested unless it's more than x inches of snow.  That's all it means.  

So basically if it's less than X" snow potential then you don't look at it when perusing the latest model run?   I guess I can get that. 

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, IronTy said:

So basically if it's less than X" snow potential then you don't look at it when perusing the latest model run?   I guess I can get that. 

Not me personally.  I'll be tracking a flurry.   I meant those who think like that.  They'll be looking at every run like we are, but they will "punt" a small snowstorm.  No, it's not physically possible to do that, but mentally, they'll be disappointed and whining through the small storm.  

[87storms]

We typically need some appetizer frozen events before a mecs.  I'm getting hyped again.