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February Medium/Long Range Thread


stormtracker
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Don’t have much to add to the commentary about the ensemble snow means between feb 10 and 17. Big signal. But don’t have a well defined threat yet. It’s like blurry double vision from afar, and then as it gets closer, it’ll congeal into a single big threat and then maybe a smaller follow up that can’t be seen this far out. And that doesn’t even include what happens past the 17th, for which the euro weeklies have gotten colder. 

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  On 2/2/2025 at 11:32 PM, CAPE said:

A -PDO definitely tends to mitigate the impacts of an el Nino. Probably more so in our current regime.

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-PDO Strong El Nino is 65/66, 72/73, 23/24.. 65/66 was -NAO and a little weaker ENSO. But if you used the 72/73 analog last Winter you would have done good... subsurface water temps might be the better gauge. This Winter has shown that the PDO can be mutable to other factors/atmospheric drivers. 

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  On 2/2/2025 at 11:43 PM, TSSN+ said:

Depends what model is right. Gfs would be ice storm warning levels for northern tier. 

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I’m gonna lean compromise but even that EURO is fairly impactful up there - 0.2” of ice accreting slowly. Rough pre-storm airmass will lessen the blow but trees/power lines won’t care much. 

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  On 2/2/2025 at 11:48 PM, NorthArlington101 said:

I’m gonna lean compromise but even that EURO is fairly impactful up there - 0.2” of ice accreting slowly. Rough pre-storm airmass will lessen the blow but trees/power lines won’t care much. 

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Elevated surfaces most definitely can freeze assuming the model is correct, so that could be an issue.  Streets are gonna be a nothing burger...not with the airmass leading in.  Tomorrow and Tuesday might actually feel like very early spring.

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  On 2/2/2025 at 11:15 PM, CAPE said:

Here ya go. SER wasn't an issue.

Composite Plot

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I could have sworn SER made some appearances last year in between Pac Puke episodes.  I guess to clarify when I speak of the "SER" I am including the -PDO propensity for heights to spike to the North Pole in front of every short wave.  Maybe that is a different animal from a stable bermuda ridge.    

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  On 2/2/2025 at 11:32 PM, CAPE said:

A -PDO definitely tends to mitigate the impacts of an el Nino. Probably more so in our current regime.

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But the way in which a -PDO screws with a nino is by favoring + height anomalies in east, counteracting the nino propensity to drive a trough their, right?

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  On 2/3/2025 at 12:24 AM, 87storms said:

Elevated surfaces most definitely can freeze assuming the model is correct, so that could be an issue.  Streets are gonna be a nothing burger...not with the airmass leading in.  Tomorrow and Tuesday might actually feel like very early spring.

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Up north might even be on roads and sidewalks especially if it snows and sleets for a while first. 

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  On 2/3/2025 at 12:33 AM, TSSN+ said:

Up north might even be on roads and sidewalks especially if it snows and sleets for a while first. 

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True, a layer of sleet would certainly allow for accretion on pavement, just hard to believe that being an issue with the milder temps leading in...though CAD can be sneaky here, so we'll see.  Next battle will be how quickly precip moves in.

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18z GEFS went all out Polar Blocking at the end of the run.. caved to the EPS. 

Scandinavia and NW Russia are going to have a 5700dm block.. +600dm! at Days 4-5, so that's actually a really good loading pattern for -NAO. It rolls forward to about a +120dm -NAO in ~+10 days. I wonder if the models have bias at all with this historical tendency. 

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  On 2/3/2025 at 1:19 AM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

18z GEFS went all out Polar Blocking at the end of the run.. caved to the EPS. 

Scandinavia and NW Russia are going to have a 5700dm block.. +600dm! at Days 4-5, so that's actually a really good loading pattern for -NAO. It rolls forward to about a +120dm -NAO in ~+10 days. I wonder if the models have bias at all with this historical tendency. 

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This year has seen big time blocking already, so a return is credible imho unlike previous years.

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  On 2/3/2025 at 1:19 AM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

18z GEFS went all out Polar Blocking at the end of the run.. caved to the EPS. 

Scandinavia and NW Russia are going to have a 5700dm block.. +600dm! at Days 4-5, so that's actually a really good loading pattern for -NAO. It rolls forward to about a +120dm -NAO in ~+10 days. I wonder if the models have bias at all with this historical tendency. 

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Welcome to the party, come inside, let me take your coat. 

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  On 2/3/2025 at 1:19 AM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

18z GEFS went all out Polar Blocking at the end of the run.. caved to the EPS. 

Scandinavia and NW Russia are going to have a 5700dm block.. +600dm! at Days 4-5, so that's actually a really good loading pattern for -NAO. It rolls forward to about a +120dm -NAO in ~+10 days. I wonder if the models have bias at all with this historical tendency. 

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Sounds like you also caved to the weenies lol

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  On 2/3/2025 at 1:16 AM, mitchnick said:

Crummy AI run. Nothing much to see in MA or NE. Lot of threats off the coast again. Fugetaboutit.

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Opposite of what he thought.

 I have read several mets think the flow is too progressive and systems slid by too quickly or offshore.  

https://x.com/MikeTFox5/status/1886219484463055260

Biggest issue to me with that 11-14th time window is that your long wave trough is positive and wayyyy back to the west. You got room for systems to slide west. I think you need to wait for it to shift east. So I’m more of the 15-18th time period vs 11-14th which I think is a little fast. Just my opinion here.

 

 

 

 

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  On 2/3/2025 at 1:28 AM, bncho said:

Sounds like you also caved to the weenies lol

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The PNA is such a huge area.. that trending from +300dm to +50dm or so, means that we can probably get snow mid Winter. -NAO I am still a little skeptical about, they might be overdoing the "no longer strong +AO" pattern of Stratosphere cooling turning into PV split.. it's still a neutral anomaly at 10mb, and historically warmings are 3:1 correlated to +time-to-the surface vs 0-time. Plus last Winter they showed so much of this pattern at days 10-15+, I think the fundamentals of -PDO and Weak Nina, although obviously weak this Winter so far, might still creep up there at the end. They may say the surface of PDO is neutral, but it's still strong -PDO in the subsurface/thermocline.  Hopefully the 500mb pattern projected by models holds going forward, I actually hate -PNA in the Winter. 

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