February Medium/Long Range Thread

[aldie 22]

If February turns out to be prolific I wish it had 31 days in it

[87storms]

Winter is coming back!
PUNXSUTAWNEY, Pa. (KDKA) — Punxsutawney Phil is predicting six more weeks of winter after seeing his shadow at Gobbler's Knob Sunday morning. 

2nd half of peak climo might hit different.

[bncho]

20 hours ago, mitchnick said:

2/10-2/20 could be one of the snowiest periods in 15 years IF we're on the right side of the boundary. 

[87storms]

If February turns out to be prolific I wish it had 31 days in it

Meh…I like snow, but I also like being 3 days closer to spring lol.

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, 87storms said:

Meh…I like snow, but I also like being 3 days closer to spring lol.

If I was ever going to report a post, this would be the one. 

[mitchnick]

15 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Just when you think it's safe to come out, the Gfs is sniffing out a SSW around 2/14. It's been on it for days too along with the Geps.

 

In addition to maintaining the SSW on the 6z run, now at 300hrs, Gfs has a 2nd hit to what's left of the vortex at the end of its run. Follow-up hits like this are classic to consequential SSW events. Difficult not to get excited for the next 6, maybe even 8, weeks.

[Ralph Wiggum]

20 minutes ago, 87storms said:

Meh…I like snow, but I also like being 3 days closer to spring lol.

Isnt there another thread for tracking mud season?

[bncho]

EPS snow probabilities at DC:
90% chance for 1+" of snow
65% chance for 3+" of snow
52% chance for 6+" of snow
8% chance of 12+" of snow
It should be noted that all of this comes from Feb 10 onwards, only half of the ensemble run.

Fun times are ahead for sure.
 

[87storms]

If I was ever going to report a post, this would be the one. 

Nah, it doesn’t snow here enough to justify longer than 3 months of cold lol. I need my seasons.

[LeesburgWx]

4 minutes ago, bncho said:

EPS snow probabilities at DC:
90% chance for 1+" of snow
65% chance for 3+" of snow
50% chance for 6+" of snow
8% chance of 12+" of snow
It should be noted that all of this comes from Feb 10 onwards, only half of the ensemble run.

Fun times are ahead for sure.
 

50% for 6"+ and 8% for 12"+ for Feb 10th onward is crazy

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

Winter is coming back!

PUNXSUTAWNEY, Pa. (KDKA) — Punxsutawney Phil is predicting six more weeks of winter after seeing his shadow at Gobbler's Knob Sunday morning. 

Good call, ya little rat!  Keep the winter weather weenies happy!

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

"Gobbler's Knob" always makes me blush

Watch out there, sending up another @ravensrule signal!

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 hour ago, aldie 22 said:

If February turns out to be prolific I wish it had 31 days in it

Actually it does.  We just happen to call them March 1st, 2nd, and 3rd.

[Miss Pixee]

Ha haa, close this thread.

We won't dig out until May.

 

[Weather Will]

MJO on GEFS yesterday compared to today...

[Terpeast]

6 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

MJO on GEFS yesterday compared to today...

Hard to tell with the main line because its so noisy. But the group of yellow lines show more forward progress in the new run

[mitchnick]

AI just cr@pped the bed and pushed both 2/12 and 2/14 off the coast thanks to the cold. Wouldn't worry about that until ensembles start doing it since that's really all it is at this range. But cold probably won't be our problem after next week.

[aldie 22]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

AI just cr@pped the bed and pushed both 2/12 and 2/14 off the coast thanks to the cold. Wouldn't worry about that until ensembles start doing it since that's really all it is at this range. But cold probably won't be our problem after next week.

I think that's a good sign this far out. The more we can be on the cold side of the boundary now the more wiggle room as things adjust as we get closer unless I'm not understanding the boundary discussion if thats the case then darn lol

[Terpeast]

7 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

AI just cr@pped the bed and pushed both 2/12 and 2/14 off the coast thanks to the cold. Wouldn't worry about that until ensembles start doing it since that's really all it is at this range. But cold probably won't be our problem after next week.

Again, I’d rather be on the north side of a storm at range than riding the fall line. Like Aldie says

[mitchnick]

6 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

I think that's a good sign this far out. The more we can be on the cold side of the boundary now the more wiggle room as things adjust as we get closer unless I'm not understanding the boundary discussion if thats the case then darn lol

 

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Again, I’d rather be on the north side of a storm at range than riding the fall line. Like Aldie says

I don't take it as a bad sign at this range at all for the reasons you stated and in light of operationals and ensembles. 

[ravensrule]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

"Gobbler's Knob" always makes me blush

Says the second biggest sicko on the board. 

[stormtracker]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

If I was ever going to report a post, this would be the one. 

If I were gonna ban someone over one, it’d be that one. 

[stormtracker]

4 hours ago, Ji said:

Gfs trending warner with zr event. Big shock
. Still has it but not as potent with temps around 29-30

So you’re saying the GFS on its own is not rock solid? 

[frd]

30 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

AI just cr@pped the bed and pushed both 2/12 and 2/14 off the coast thanks to the cold. Wouldn't worry about that until ensembles start doing it since that's really all it is at this range. But cold probably won't be our problem after next week.

 

Wonder if surpression depression returns and eliminates our chances of meaningful snow,  because of either too much blocking or a too far displaced TPV in SE Canada or even further East. 

I have heard the cases for more NW track this go around in Feb, and early March, more latent heat, shorter wavelenghts, etc. 

 

 

 

[frd]

Every new day, a more negative AO forecast, also a dropping NAO,

and surprise the PNA has improved as well. 

 

 

[SnowenOutThere]

10 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

So you’re saying the GFS on its own is not rock solid? 

Hey let’s not forget the super long range NAM

[Ralph Wiggum]

31 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

I think that's a good sign this far out. The more we can be on the cold side of the boundary now the more wiggle room as things adjust as we get closer unless I'm not understanding the boundary discussion if thats the case then darn lol

Plus with Chuck's raging +NAO there isn't anything to suppress so that will come N and W

[Ralph Wiggum]

5 minutes ago, frd said:

 

Wonder if surpression depression returns and eliminates our chances of meaningful snow,  because of either too much blocking or a too far displaced TPV in SE Canada or even further East. 

I have heard the cases for more NW track this go around in Feb, and early March, more latent heat, shorter wavelenghts, etc. 

 

 

 

So helps us all if the deep south gets clobbered again while we smoke cirrus. This board would self-destruct.

[frd]

4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

So helps us all if the deep south gets clobbered again while we smoke cirrus. This board would self-destruct.

Hopefully not. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

9 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

So helps us all if the deep south gets clobbered again while we smoke cirrus. This board would self-destruct.

"Save your Confederate shovels, for the South will snow again?" 

But seriously and more on topic:  I really don't think we'll end up having to worry about being blasted with cold and dry so much (or at least hope not!).  That doesn't normally seem to be a thing in February and early March around here.

[WxUSAF]