Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 EPS is bringing back the Dec/Jan pattern 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 GEFS still has this.. Maybe it's a bias because of how the last 7 years have gone in February? It's had the pattern at Day 13-15 for the last 7 days, and it doesn't seem to stick as the times get closer You can see the differences between the two models in the Pacific Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 On 2/2/2025 at 6:48 AM, Stormchaserchuck1 said: GEFS still has this.. Maybe it's a bias because of how the last 7 years have gone in February? It's had the pattern at Day 13-15 for the last 7 days, and it doesn't seem to stick as the times get closer You can see the differences between the two models in the Pacific Expand The gefs is trending towards the EPS and it’s only a few days behind getting to the same place even if it’s right. At least with respect to the day 15 pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 @CAPE this a -NAO? 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 The snow stats for February since 2015 have been shocking 21 inches at Dulles…total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 On 2/2/2025 at 7:22 AM, psuhoffman said: @CAPE this a -NAO? Expand I'll check with Chuck.. All the teleconnections of interest are negative there, including the PNA lol. Chuck should be happy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 Gfs trending warner with zr event. Big shock . Still has it but not as potent with temps around 29-30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 The strongest signal for a MA winter storm has been around the 12th across ens guidance, and that went up a notch on the 0z runs. Surface depiction on the EPS. GEFS looks similar. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 On 2/2/2025 at 10:09 AM, CAPE said: The strongest signal for a MA winter storm has been around the 12th across ens guidance, and that went up a notch on the 0z runs. Surface depiction on the EPS. GEFS looks similar. Looks to good to be true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 On 2/2/2025 at 10:18 AM, Ji said: Looks to good to be true Expand 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 On 2/2/2025 at 10:18 AM, Ji said: Looks to good to be true Expand 10 days out. Hopefully the trend is a little colder and souther, and not the other direction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 On 2/2/2025 at 10:26 AM, CAPE said: 10 days out. Hopefully the trend is a little colder and souther, and not the other direction.A lot can change in 10 days but the data is as snowy as I’ve seen on the ensembles in years especially in February Last year at this time…the great looks we had in the ensembles were starting to fade. This year the opposite so far 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 The AI seems to have 2 coastals on the 12th and 14th that appear all snow lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 The midweek ice event looks marginal at best...more wet than icy. WB 6Z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 On 2/2/2025 at 10:51 AM, Ji said: The AI seems to have 2 coastals on the 12th and 14th that appear all snow lol Expand The second one looks like a cold Miller A storm that takes a classic track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 On 2/2/2025 at 11:37 AM, CAPE said: The second one looks like a cold Miller A storm that takes a classic track. Expand The AI establishes the monster block by day 10 which is why the more suppressed solutions in the long range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 On 2/2/2025 at 11:39 AM, psuhoffman said: The AI establishes the monster block by day 10 which is why the more suppressed solutions in the long range. Expand Yeah this look is probably a little too soon. Hopefully we get there. That is a pretty nice track though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 On 2/2/2025 at 11:47 AM, CAPE said: Yeah this look is probably a little too soon. Hopefully we get there. That is a pretty nice track though. Expand Chuck will find something wrong with it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 nobody could have seen this coming! 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 On 2/2/2025 at 11:50 AM, psuhoffman said: Chuck will find something wrong with it. Expand well yeah- look at that +PNA! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 @CAPE I felt pretty strongly we would get one more bite at the -AO apple this season but now I’m almost ready to call go time. It’s supported by everything. Analogs. Mjo progression. Recent AO cycle behavior. Scandinavian ridge. Monster poleward EPO ridge. And now the SPV is getting obliterated and split in one of the more sudden strat developments i can remember. 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 On 2/2/2025 at 11:50 AM, brooklynwx99 said: nobody could have seen this coming! Expand Strongest upper divergence north of the MJO convection. Euro has the wave propagating eastward so an extended jet core makes sense. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 I’ll take my chances on a repeat of Januarys pattern but in Feb/March. Probably will be wetter. Shorter wavelengths and increased heat south of the boundary will make it easier to get storms wound up also. 7 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 On 2/2/2025 at 11:55 AM, psuhoffman said: @CAPE I felt pretty strongly we would get one more bite at the -AO apple this season but now I’m almost ready to call go time. It’s supported by everything. Analogs. Mjo progression. Recent AO cycle behavior. Scandinavian ridge. Monster poleward EPO ridge. And now the SPV is getting obliterated and split in one of the more sudden strat developments i can remember. Expand I guess the QBO phase is the one element that doesnt align, but the amount of impact it actually has always seemed a little nebulous to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 On 2/2/2025 at 12:02 PM, CAPE said: I guess the QBO phase is the one element that doesnt align, but the amount of impact it actually has always seemed a little nebulous to me. Expand The last couple times we expected it to help it didn’t seem to do squatola. We already had one period of blocking despite the “hostile” QBO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 Winter is coming back! PUNXSUTAWNEY, Pa. (KDKA) — Punxsutawney Phil is predicting six more weeks of winter after seeing his shadow at Gobbler's Knob Sunday morning. 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 On 2/2/2025 at 12:37 PM, Weather Will said: Winter is coming back! PUNXSUTAWNEY, Pa. (KDKA) — Punxsutawney Phil is predicting six more weeks of winter after seeing his shadow at Gobbler's Knob Sunday morning. Expand "Gobbler's Knob" always makes me blush 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 On 2/2/2025 at 12:37 PM, Weather Will said: Winter is coming back! PUNXSUTAWNEY, Pa. (KDKA) — Punxsutawney Phil is predicting six more weeks of winter after seeing his shadow at Gobbler's Knob Sunday morning. Expand We have all the signs LOL 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 If February turns out to be prolific I wish it had 31 days in it 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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