February Medium/Long Range Thread

[brooklynwx99]

i'm really liking the burgeoning blocking signal. it all checks out... -PNA leads to N Atl wavebreaking which allows for retrogression of the Scandi ridge. couple that with a significant stratospheric disruption at 50mb and you're cooking up a block

[Ji]

44 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

lol 

Im less sure what happens the next 15 days. Models have a history of teasing us at range in a TNH pattern only to shift NW come game time. But this year does feel different so I’m holding out hope but I’m more confident in where the pattern is heading after regardless of how these waves the next 2 weeks go. 
 

Chuck seems oddly invested in a warmer outcome for some reason. 

not sure why you brought him back into this thread

[Ralph Wiggum]

Funny how the gfs op is a weenie run during the 'mild' reload stretch then looks to relax when we are supposed to enter our best pattern. Interesting how this stuff works sometimes.

[Heisy]

I'm glad to see you posting Heisy.  When I heard them say that jet crashed in NE Philly, I  was worried about you.

I was at cottman and the boulevard like 1 hour before the crash. My wife was at her sisters which is walking distance from there. Wild.

On topic:
Pattern comes down to the -PNA, this month could be historic if things break right


.

[brooklynwx99]

EPS is really ratcheting up the block in the LR. textbook progression

[jayyy]

EPS is really ratcheting up the block in the LR. textbook progression

Feb 15th to March 15th is gonna… as the youngens say… cook

[brooklynwx99]

i mean, wow

[mitchnick]

Eps snow mean pretty good at 268hrs with 3" at BWI and 2.5" at DCA.

Better than the operational. 

[psuhoffman]

End of eps is Wow 

 

[frd]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

End of eps is Wow 

 

Seems improved pattern favoring a SECS pattern is moving up quicker in time,  versus late month or a can kick.  

[CAPE]

15 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i mean, wow

Chuck told me thats a +NAO

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just now, CAPE said:

Chuck told me thats a +NAO

Source: he said so

[psuhoffman]

14 minutes ago, frd said:

Seems improved pattern favoring a SECS pattern is moving up quicker in time,  versus late month or a can kick.  

H5 typically has to be in place before a threat. I’m sticking to  Feb 20 estimate for when the ground truth changes. But 10 days ago all I had was faith in the seasonal pattern progression.  Then a week ago some hints started to show up that things were heading to this. Now the pattern is fully showing up on the eps right when it should. 

[psuhoffman]

13 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Chuck told me thats a +NAO

lol 

when I asked if he was ok because I was genuinely concerned I didn’t intend it to be interpreted as some batsignal that we needed a bunch of pna posts in the thread. My bad. 

[Terpeast]

Great sign that major ensembles are beating the se ridge down while linking the scandi and AK ridges for -AO at the end

My guess is that we flirt with the boundary for light mix/rain over the next 10 days, then we get colder

[Amped]

2 hours ago, Heisy said:

Wow…




.

Attacked from both sides.

[mitchnick]

AI has threats again but the cold actually has 2 of the threats pushed a little east of ideal.

Probably good at this range.

[mitchnick]

Wow. Weeklies just cooled BIG time.

[CAPE]

13 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Wow. Weeklies just cooled BIG time.

Euro? Looks pretty similar to the last run to me. Last couple runs have really picked up on the improved look in the NA, which makes sense given recent ens runs.

[stormy]

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

lol 

Im less sure what happens the next 15 days. Models have a history of teasing us at range in a TNH pattern only to shift NW come game time. But this year does feel different so I’m holding out hope but I’m more confident in where the pattern is heading after regardless of how these waves the next 2 weeks go. 
 

Chuck seems oddly invested in a warmer outcome for some reason. 

How does this year feel different???

[mitchnick]

32 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Euro? Looks pretty similar to the last run to me. Last couple runs have really picked up on the improved look in the NA, which makes sense given recent ens runs.

Euro site.  I'll  post yesterday's on top and today's on the bottom for weeks 2, 3, 4 and 6. Week 5 was similar. 

 

 

[mitchnick]

One other thing about the weeklies, every week but week 5 is Above Normal for precip, with week 5 normal.

[CAPE]

12 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Euro site. I'll put yesterday's on top and today's below. I'll  post yesterday's on top and today's on the bottom for weeks 2, 3, 4 and 6. Week 5 was similar. 

 

 

Yeah I see some difference at the surface on WB. I generally only look at h5 on the extended product, and I don't trust it for more than 10 days beyond the end of the ens run it initializes from. Too prone to going to boilerplate ENSO climo. Don't we know it after last winter.

[CAPE]

12 minutes ago, stormy said:

How does this year feel different???

We just experienced a longwave pattern that produced the coldest Jan in many years. Atmospheric memory.

[stormy]

We just experienced a relax of the January cold pattern. I am on record for weeks of a likely cold late February and March.

I am not gloriously enthused about this feeling according to the latest GEFS Extended and ECMWF Weeklies.   

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

3 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i mean, wow

 

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

End of eps is Wow 

 

One could almost say it's like Altoids...curiously strong MINT! 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

18 minutes ago, CAPE said:

We just experienced a longwave pattern that produced the coldest Jan in many years. Atmospheric memory.

Exactly.  We haven't seen that level of cold since (I think) February 2015.  And in my yard, we had snow cover for 3 weeks after that Jan. 6 event, before it finally totally got washed out this week (outside some huge piles still in parking lots).

[bncho]

5 minutes ago, stormy said:

We just experienced a relax of the January cold pattern. I am on record for weeks of a likely cold late February and March.

I am not gloriously enthused about this feeling according to the latest GEFS Extended and ECMWF Weeklies.   

Is this person not aware that this January was as cold as 2014?

[mitchnick]

Just when you think it's safe to come out, the Gfs is sniffing out a SSW around 2/14. It's been on it for days too along with the Geps.

 

[CAPE]

17 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Just when you think it's safe to come out, the Gfs is sniffing out a SSW around 2/14. It's been on it for days too along with the Geps.

 

 I don't think this is very good trend if you are a Polar Vortex.