Ji Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 On 2/1/2025 at 5:13 PM, psuhoffman said: lol Im less sure what happens the next 15 days. Models have a history of teasing us at range in a TNH pattern only to shift NW come game time. But this year does feel different so I’m holding out hope but I’m more confident in where the pattern is heading after regardless of how these waves the next 2 weeks go. Chuck seems oddly invested in a warmer outcome for some reason. Expand not sure why you brought him back into this thread 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 Funny how the gfs op is a weenie run during the 'mild' reload stretch then looks to relax when we are supposed to enter our best pattern. Interesting how this stuff works sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 On 2/1/2025 at 5:35 PM, mitchnick said: I'm glad to see you posting Heisy. When I heard them say that jet crashed in NE Philly, I was worried about you.I was at cottman and the boulevard like 1 hour before the crash. My wife was at her sisters which is walking distance from there. Wild.On topic: Pattern comes down to the -PNA, this month could be historic if things break right . 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 EPS is really ratcheting up the block in the LR. textbook progression 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 On 2/1/2025 at 6:22 PM, brooklynwx99 said: EPS is really ratcheting up the block in the LR. textbook progressionFeb 15th to March 15th is gonna… as the youngens say… cook 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 i mean, wow 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 Eps snow mean pretty good at 268hrs with 3" at BWI and 2.5" at DCA. Better than the operational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 End of eps is Wow 16 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 On 2/1/2025 at 6:47 PM, psuhoffman said: End of eps is Wow Expand Seems improved pattern favoring a SECS pattern is moving up quicker in time, versus late month or a can kick. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 On 2/1/2025 at 6:35 PM, brooklynwx99 said: i mean, wow Expand Chuck told me thats a +NAO 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 On 2/1/2025 at 6:52 PM, CAPE said: Chuck told me thats a +NAO Expand Source: he said so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 On 2/1/2025 at 6:50 PM, frd said: Seems improved pattern favoring a SECS pattern is moving up quicker in time, versus late month or a can kick. Expand H5 typically has to be in place before a threat. I’m sticking to Feb 20 estimate for when the ground truth changes. But 10 days ago all I had was faith in the seasonal pattern progression. Then a week ago some hints started to show up that things were heading to this. Now the pattern is fully showing up on the eps right when it should. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 On 2/1/2025 at 6:52 PM, CAPE said: Chuck told me thats a +NAO Expand lol when I asked if he was ok because I was genuinely concerned I didn’t intend it to be interpreted as some batsignal that we needed a bunch of pna posts in the thread. My bad. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 Great sign that major ensembles are beating the se ridge down while linking the scandi and AK ridges for -AO at the end My guess is that we flirt with the boundary for light mix/rain over the next 10 days, then we get colder 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 On 2/1/2025 at 5:25 PM, Heisy said: Wow… . Expand Attacked from both sides. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 AI has threats again but the cold actually has 2 of the threats pushed a little east of ideal. Probably good at this range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 Wow. Weeklies just cooled BIG time. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 On 2/1/2025 at 8:21 PM, mitchnick said: Wow. Weeklies just cooled BIG time. Expand Euro? Looks pretty similar to the last run to me. Last couple runs have really picked up on the improved look in the NA, which makes sense given recent ens runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 On 2/1/2025 at 5:13 PM, psuhoffman said: lol Im less sure what happens the next 15 days. Models have a history of teasing us at range in a TNH pattern only to shift NW come game time. But this year does feel different so I’m holding out hope but I’m more confident in where the pattern is heading after regardless of how these waves the next 2 weeks go. Chuck seems oddly invested in a warmer outcome for some reason. Expand How does this year feel different??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 On 2/1/2025 at 8:38 PM, CAPE said: Euro? Looks pretty similar to the last run to me. Last couple runs have really picked up on the improved look in the NA, which makes sense given recent ens runs. Expand Euro site. I'll post yesterday's on top and today's on the bottom for weeks 2, 3, 4 and 6. Week 5 was similar. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 One other thing about the weeklies, every week but week 5 is Above Normal for precip, with week 5 normal. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 On 2/1/2025 at 9:10 PM, mitchnick said: Euro site. I'll put yesterday's on top and today's below. I'll post yesterday's on top and today's on the bottom for weeks 2, 3, 4 and 6. Week 5 was similar. Expand Yeah I see some difference at the surface on WB. I generally only look at h5 on the extended product, and I don't trust it for more than 10 days beyond the end of the ens run it initializes from. Too prone to going to boilerplate ENSO climo. Don't we know it after last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 On 2/1/2025 at 9:03 PM, stormy said: How does this year feel different??? Expand We just experienced a longwave pattern that produced the coldest Jan in many years. Atmospheric memory. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 We just experienced a relax of the January cold pattern. I am on record for weeks of a likely cold late February and March. I am not gloriously enthused about this feeling according to the latest GEFS Extended and ECMWF Weeklies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 On 2/1/2025 at 6:35 PM, brooklynwx99 said: i mean, wow Expand On 2/1/2025 at 6:47 PM, psuhoffman said: End of eps is Wow Expand One could almost say it's like Altoids...curiously strong MINT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 On 2/1/2025 at 9:19 PM, CAPE said: We just experienced a longwave pattern that produced the coldest Jan in many years. Atmospheric memory. Expand Exactly. We haven't seen that level of cold since (I think) February 2015. And in my yard, we had snow cover for 3 weeks after that Jan. 6 event, before it finally totally got washed out this week (outside some huge piles still in parking lots). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 On 2/1/2025 at 9:34 PM, stormy said: We just experienced a relax of the January cold pattern. I am on record for weeks of a likely cold late February and March. I am not gloriously enthused about this feeling according to the latest GEFS Extended and ECMWF Weeklies. Expand Is this person not aware that this January was as cold as 2014? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 Just when you think it's safe to come out, the Gfs is sniffing out a SSW around 2/14. It's been on it for days too along with the Geps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 On 2/1/2025 at 9:52 PM, mitchnick said: Just when you think it's safe to come out, the Gfs is sniffing out a SSW around 2/14. It's been on it for days too along with the Geps. Expand I don't think this is very good trend if you are a Polar Vortex. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 This ridge from Californina to Russia is a good example of what a cold 10mb (Stratosphere) looks like near the surface, as the effect of a stronger Polar Vortex at the Pole speeds up, and makes it down like the funnel of a tornado at 0-time. On its edges, in the midlatitudes a ridge is flexed. Below you see the down atmospheric effects of a cold/fast 10mb level, which is centered over western Greenland and the Davis Strait currently. Cold Stratosphere correlates to 500mb at 0-time. Warm Stratosphere corrleates to 500 at +15-45 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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