February Medium/Long Range Thread

[Ralph Wiggum]

11 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Very interested to see how its performance will be. How long has it been indicating frozen?

GFS op has actually been most consistent with the feb 5 mix thump thing tbh

[Chris78]

I want whatever the GFS is smoking 

[mitchnick]

18 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Very interested to see how its performance will be. How long has it been indicating frozen?

At least 3 days, maybe 4 or 5.

[Ralph Wiggum]

50 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I'm still going with no snow for 15+ days

@stormtracker, you got this?

[87storms]

Dry af 

Prime climo, too. Oh well…wall to wall winters are rare for a reason.

[Ralph Wiggum]

53 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

I want whatever the GFS is smoking 

I want whatever half this forum is smoking. Bone dry? No snow next 15 days?

GFS alone has 4 waves between Feb 5 and Feb 14 and each has frozen for at least parts of this sub.

[aldie 22]

7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I want whatever half this forum is smoking. Bone dry? No snow next 15 days?

GFS alone has 4 waves between Feb 5 and Feb 14 and each has frozen for at least parts of this sub.

People with zero comedic sense trying to be funny as trolls. It's boring actually 

[North Balti Zen]

1 minute ago, aldie 22 said:

People with zero comedic sense trying to be funny as trolls. It's boring actually 

It’s so bad. People saying shut the blinds and where’s the cold and then next post is a half foot of snow next week on modeling. It’s just so tired. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, aldie 22 said:

People with zero comedic sense trying to be funny as trolls. It's boring actually 

None of these appear to be clean flush hits. Heck, none of these may even have frozen when it happens. But if this is our 'mild' period and we are potentially tracking, that isnt a bad thing. I recall a few folks saying be careful in this pattern with all these waves and cold air lurking nearby as something could pop in the short range?

[CAPE]

This is the period where things can really get interesting and set us up for the latter half of Feb into March. The NE PAC ridge amplifies and undergoes an anticyclonic wave break, forcing a significant piece of energy associated with the TPV rotating southward to push eastward towards Atlantic Canada, which in turn begins to build h5 heights into Greenland..

From there the progression continues, with additional energy dropping southward overtop the EPO ridge, flattening the SE ridge and initiating further amplification in the NA, with a potential atmospheric block developing around mid month.

[aldie 22]

3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

None of these appear to be clean flush hits. Heck, none of these may even have frozen when it happens. But if this is our 'mild' period and we are potentially tracking, that isnt a bad thing. I recall a few folks saying be careful in this pattern with all these waves and cold air lurking nearby as something could pop in the short range?

And then you have that certain someone lurking waiting for that one op run of the gfs showing warm and then he posts 15 times between 3-5am

[CAPE]

The 18z GEFS has that look. First time we are seeing an indication of an actual 50-50 low on the mean.

[Ralph Wiggum]

28 minutes ago, CAPE said:

This is the period where things can really get interesting and set us up for the latter half of Feb into March. The NE PAC ridge amplifies and undergoes an anticyclonic wave break, forcing a significant piece of energy associated with the TPV rotating southward to push eastward towards Atlantic Canada, which in turn begins to build h5 heights into Greenland..

From there the progression continues, with additional energy dropping southward overtop the EPO ridge, flattening the SE ridge and initiating further amplification in the NA, with a potential atmospheric block developing around mid month.

Agreed, mid-month onward likely best chances setting up for an actual secs/mecs tracking window. Great explanation of the progression as usual.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

37 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The 18z GEFS has that look. First time we are seeing an indication of an actual 50-50 low on the mean.

That's not a 50/50 low. It's north.. It's a +NAO

[mitchnick]

AI 18z has a little frozen on the 5/6 next week. No big deal.

Now. Take your children out of the room. Once you take out, you can continue to read this.

Click on this link and move forward in time. From DC northward, the storm is mostly snow. This is 2/11

BUT...continue to move forward in time to Thursday  2/13. That storm is all snow from even southern VA. It's more an I95 storm, but it's an absolute MONSTER!

Have a nice rest of your evening. Disregard the 3rd one at the end of the run even though that would at least start as snow too. Lol

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202501311800&interval=12&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202502111200

[87storms]

GFS op has actually been most consistent with the feb 5 mix thump thing tbh

The current forecast is for temps rising into the 60s next Thursday. Gonna need to get through next week and then see if the pattern flips back. Agree with the general consensus that winter isn’t over (saying it is, is dumb), but it isn’t looking good in the midrange, that’s for sure.

[Allsnow]

10 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

AI 18z has a little frozen on the 5/6 next week. No big deal.

Now. Take your children out of the room. Once you take out, you can continue to read this.

Click on this link and move forward in time. From DC northward, the storm is mostly snow. This is 2/11

BUT...continue to move forward in time to Thursday  2/13. That storm is all snow from even southern VA. It's more an I95 storm, but it's an absolute MONSTER!

Have a nice rest of your evening. Disregard the 3rd one at the end of the run even though that would at least start as snow too. Lol

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202501311800&interval=12&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202502111200

Thank you!!!! You just saved winter 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Thank you!!!! You just saved winter 

Actually, the last storm might be better than the other two if that's possible. It starts real cold. Here's the 850 temp/500mb

[bncho]

28 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

AI 18z has a little frozen on the 5/6 next week. No big deal.

Now. Take your children out of the room. Once you take out, you can continue to read this.

Click on this link and move forward in time. From DC northward, the storm is mostly snow. This is 2/11

BUT...continue to move forward in time to Thursday  2/13. That storm is all snow from even southern VA. It's more an I95 storm, but it's an absolute MONSTER!

Have a nice rest of your evening. Disregard the 3rd one at the end of the run even though that would at least start as snow too. Lol

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202501311800&interval=12&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202502111200

holy shit

[mitchnick]

Pivotal has the precip shield further for the 2nd one a little further offshore than as it appeared to me on the Euro site.

But storm 3 is definitely better on Pivotal than it looked on the Euro site.

[mitchnick]

5 minutes ago, bncho said:

holy shit

Total storm qpf from Pivotal. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Hopefully you guys will learn the importance of upper latitude 500mb patterns. 

[bncho]

5 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Hopefully you guys will learn the importance of upper latitude 500mb patterns. 

We're weenies, man. Let us enjoy our 30 minutes of happiness.

[mitchnick]

500mb map looks decent for all 3 AI events. Here's a link to the 500mb anomalies  starting from just befor storm 1. Move forward to see the rest of the 5H anomalies. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ec-aifs&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2025013118&fh=258

[87storms]

500mb map looks decent for all 3 AI events. Here's a link to the 500mb anomalies  starting from just befor storm 1. Move forward to see the rest of the 5H anomalies. 
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ec-aifs&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2025013118&fh=258

Winter will return. We just got used to 2 months straight of it.

[Ralph Wiggum]

38 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Hopefully you guys will learn the importance of upper latitude 500mb patterns. 

 

12 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

500mb map looks decent for all 3 AI events. Here's a link to the 500mb anomalies  starting from just befor storm 1. Move forward to see the rest of the 5H anomalies. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ec-aifs&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2025013118&fh=258

Thank you @mitchnick

Looks like a transient -PNA during the reload with signs of ridging in the PNA region rolling forward. SER gets predictably squashed. Seasonal trends rule?

[Yeoman]

59 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Pivotal has the precip shield further for the 2nd one a little further offshore than as it appeared to me on the Euro site.

But storm 3 is definitely better on Pivotal than it looked on the Euro site.

The big ones usually lock in 14 days out

[Ralph Wiggum]

3 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

The big ones usually lock in 14 days out

Yep, right next to 'go with the snowiest model'...page 1 of the weenie handbook.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

15 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Thank you @mitchnick

Looks like a transient -PNA during the reload with signs of ridging in the PNA region rolling forward. SER gets predictably squashed. Seasonal trends rule?

AI isn't a very good model. GEFS has a strong, sustained, stable -PNA Hrs240-384.. +300dm in the long range is about as extreme as it gets on the ensemble mean. 

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSHGTAVGNH_18z/ensloopmref.html

[aldie 22]

I guess he found his run