February Medium/Long Range Thread

[psuhoffman]

Oh hello...

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

This is also all wintry precip of some kind for most of us on the AI Euro for the 5th/6th - looks like mostly sleet or ice, but some snow at the start if the shoddy temp maps we’ve got are right. Eventually flips to rain. 
 

What is the model smoking? Google has it listed in the mid 60s that day.

[Terpeast]

22 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Oh hello...

There it is, come to papa

That little vortex hugging the AK coast gonna ride over the ridge down into the middle US and dig… that’ll be our threat if this pans out verbatim

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

There it is, come to papa

That little vortex hugging the AK coast gonna ride over the ridge down into the middle US and dig… that’ll be our threat if this pans out verbatim

EPS

Enjoy that SER while it lasts with that EPO to NAO ridge bridge setting up! 

It's already starting to get beat down at the end.  

[Ji]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

EPS

Enjoy that SER while it lasts with that EPO to NAO ridge bridge setting up! 

It's already starting to get beat down at the end.  

just in time for Presidents day weekend? I think PD is only a nino thing anyway

[mitchnick]

Geps fwiw

[brooklynwx99]

the -PNA, Scandinavian ridging, and N Atl trough all point to -NAO development. also take into account the 50mb vortex getting blown up and the MJO moving through the MC and a retrograding block is a legit possibility 

[NorthArlington101]

barring getting lucky with some sleet/ice on the 5th/6th seems clear we’ll still be snoozing for a while… but do love seeing the EPS keep lighting up at range. 
 

[Dabuckeyes]

8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

barring getting lucky with some sleet/ice on the 5th/6th seems clear we’ll still be snoozing for a while… but do love seeing the EPS keep lighting up at range. 
 

Dry af 

[Allsnow]

40 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Geps fwiw

Euro AI took away our hopes and dreams for next week….

 

Hopefully the system after the Super Bowl works for our areas 

[StormyClearweather]

4 minutes ago, Dabuckeyes said:

Dry af 

wut 

[IronTy]

2 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

What is the model smoking? Google has it listed in the mid 60s that day.

You can't drink all day if you don't start first thing in the morning...

WeatherBug shows me at 65F and rain on 2/6.  So will it be an ice storm or will I need to be vigilant for mosquitoes when I walk the dog?   Time will tell but I'm pretty sure I know which it'll be.  Will be a goodnight for a spotted salamander hunt.  

[stormy]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

EPS

Enjoy that SER while it lasts with that EPO to NAO ridge bridge setting up! 

It's already starting to get beat down at the end.  

I am not impressed.

[mitchnick]

25 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Euro AI took away our hopes and dreams for next week….

 

Hopefully the system after the Super Bowl works for our areas 

The SER is a beast. It seems operationals and ensembles want to push the boundary south to around VA/NC border after the 10th and then throw precip north. If the SER fights back hard, it'll be a brief snow to mix to rain for most up the coast, more snow the further north, of course. But if it doesn't fight so hard, we'll get a decent snow as advertised by the Euro and Gfs intermittently over the past 2 days. Eps is still looking good after day 10 suggesting some decent members, but it's too far out to get too excited. 

The AI seems to do best inside 5 days. Wednesday is now 5 days away so we should start to see it hone in and then stay pretty steady come Sunday, one way or the other. Until then, it's another ensemble member. 

But I  could easily be wrong. 

[Solution Man]

GFS likes frozen next week

[87storms]

GFS likes frozen next week

Flat flow and retreating high. Pretty wild how quickly winter flipped to early spring.

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, 87storms said:

Flat flow and retreating high. Pretty wild how quickly winter flipped to early spring.

I think we are headed down a slippery slope 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

4 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

I think we are headed down a slippery slope 

Def punting next week, gotta wait for cold to come back.  EPS has warmth. 

[bncho]

I mean, at this point, sold?
 

[Solution Man]

6 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Def punting next week, gotta wait for cold to come back.  EPS has warmth. 

Yep

[Solution Man]

4 minutes ago, bncho said:

I mean, at this point, sold?
 

That’s a stay home day

[Solution Man]

Next Friday/Saturday very interesting 

[Solution Man]

Next Friday/Saturday very interesting 

 

 

[bncho]

Not quite sold, but I'd take that deal. Another 0.25 inches of zr before rain.

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

I think we are headed down a slippery slope 

There might be a shot next week for something minor, then again in the 10-12th window, but its low probability for our region imo. Indices/teleconnections favor mild here. We are now pattern chasing for the latter half of the month at this point, and there are some good signs, but no slam dunks. All been discussed ad nauseum already. Just a waiting game and monitor how the pattern evolves over the next 15 days to see what actually materializes.

[Solution Man]

Just now, CAPE said:

There might be a shot next week for something minor, then again in the 10-12th window, but its low probability for our region imo. Indices/teleconnections favor mild here. We are now pattern chasing for the latter half of the month at this point, and there are some good signs, but no slam dunks. All been discussed ad nauseum already. Just a waiting game and monitor how the pattern evolves over the next 15 days to see what actually materializes.

I appreciate your input, definitely a voice of reason

[Heisy]

Progression of the blocking on the 12z euro Ai






.

[mitchnick]

37 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

GFS likes frozen next week

That's what the AI has been showing.

[Solution Man]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

That's what the AI has been showing.

Very interested to see how its performance will be. How long has it been indicating frozen?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

4 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

EPS

Enjoy that SER while it lasts with that EPO to NAO ridge bridge setting up! 

It's already starting to get beat down at the end.  

GEFS continues to look different.. that low pressure SE of Greenland with N. Pacific High pressure is -AAM, which is a global negative angular momentum state that usually takes some time to change

I'm still going with no snow for 15+ days