psuhoffman Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Oh hello... 8 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said: This is also all wintry precip of some kind for most of us on the AI Euro for the 5th/6th - looks like mostly sleet or ice, but some snow at the start if the shoddy temp maps we’ve got are right. Eventually flips to rain. What is the model smoking? Google has it listed in the mid 60s that day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 22 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Oh hello... There it is, come to papa That little vortex hugging the AK coast gonna ride over the ridge down into the middle US and dig… that’ll be our threat if this pans out verbatim 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 5 minutes ago, Terpeast said: There it is, come to papa That little vortex hugging the AK coast gonna ride over the ridge down into the middle US and dig… that’ll be our threat if this pans out verbatim EPS Enjoy that SER while it lasts with that EPO to NAO ridge bridge setting up! It's already starting to get beat down at the end. 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: EPS Enjoy that SER while it lasts with that EPO to NAO ridge bridge setting up! It's already starting to get beat down at the end. just in time for Presidents day weekend? I think PD is only a nino thing anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Geps fwiw 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 the -PNA, Scandinavian ridging, and N Atl trough all point to -NAO development. also take into account the 50mb vortex getting blown up and the MJO moving through the MC and a retrograding block is a legit possibility 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 barring getting lucky with some sleet/ice on the 5th/6th seems clear we’ll still be snoozing for a while… but do love seeing the EPS keep lighting up at range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: barring getting lucky with some sleet/ice on the 5th/6th seems clear we’ll still be snoozing for a while… but do love seeing the EPS keep lighting up at range. Dry af 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 40 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Geps fwiw Euro AI took away our hopes and dreams for next week…. Hopefully the system after the Super Bowl works for our areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 4 minutes ago, Dabuckeyes said: Dry af wut 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 2 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said: What is the model smoking? Google has it listed in the mid 60s that day. You can't drink all day if you don't start first thing in the morning... WeatherBug shows me at 65F and rain on 2/6. So will it be an ice storm or will I need to be vigilant for mosquitoes when I walk the dog? Time will tell but I'm pretty sure I know which it'll be. Will be a goodnight for a spotted salamander hunt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: EPS Enjoy that SER while it lasts with that EPO to NAO ridge bridge setting up! It's already starting to get beat down at the end. I am not impressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 25 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Euro AI took away our hopes and dreams for next week…. Hopefully the system after the Super Bowl works for our areas The SER is a beast. It seems operationals and ensembles want to push the boundary south to around VA/NC border after the 10th and then throw precip north. If the SER fights back hard, it'll be a brief snow to mix to rain for most up the coast, more snow the further north, of course. But if it doesn't fight so hard, we'll get a decent snow as advertised by the Euro and Gfs intermittently over the past 2 days. Eps is still looking good after day 10 suggesting some decent members, but it's too far out to get too excited. The AI seems to do best inside 5 days. Wednesday is now 5 days away so we should start to see it hone in and then stay pretty steady come Sunday, one way or the other. Until then, it's another ensemble member. But I could easily be wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 GFS likes frozen next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 GFS likes frozen next weekFlat flow and retreating high. Pretty wild how quickly winter flipped to early spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 1 minute ago, 87storms said: Flat flow and retreating high. Pretty wild how quickly winter flipped to early spring. I think we are headed down a slippery slope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 4 minutes ago, Solution Man said: I think we are headed down a slippery slope Def punting next week, gotta wait for cold to come back. EPS has warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 I mean, at this point, sold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 6 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Def punting next week, gotta wait for cold to come back. EPS has warmth. Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 4 minutes ago, bncho said: I mean, at this point, sold? That’s a stay home day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Next Friday/Saturday very interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Next Friday/Saturday very interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Not quite sold, but I'd take that deal. Another 0.25 inches of zr before rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 3 minutes ago, Solution Man said: I think we are headed down a slippery slope There might be a shot next week for something minor, then again in the 10-12th window, but its low probability for our region imo. Indices/teleconnections favor mild here. We are now pattern chasing for the latter half of the month at this point, and there are some good signs, but no slam dunks. All been discussed ad nauseum already. Just a waiting game and monitor how the pattern evolves over the next 15 days to see what actually materializes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Just now, CAPE said: There might be a shot next week for something minor, then again in the 10-12th window, but its low probability for our region imo. Indices/teleconnections favor mild here. We are now pattern chasing for the latter half of the month at this point, and there are some good signs, but no slam dunks. All been discussed ad nauseum already. Just a waiting game and monitor how the pattern evolves over the next 15 days to see what actually materializes. I appreciate your input, definitely a voice of reason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Progression of the blocking on the 12z euro Ai. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 37 minutes ago, Solution Man said: GFS likes frozen next week That's what the AI has been showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: That's what the AI has been showing. Very interested to see how its performance will be. How long has it been indicating frozen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 4 hours ago, psuhoffman said: EPS Enjoy that SER while it lasts with that EPO to NAO ridge bridge setting up! It's already starting to get beat down at the end. GEFS continues to look different.. that low pressure SE of Greenland with N. Pacific High pressure is -AAM, which is a global negative angular momentum state that usually takes some time to change I'm still going with no snow for 15+ days 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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