Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 On 1/31/2025 at 1:39 AM, mitchnick said: I don't dispute the indexes, but when you look at mean 850 temps, they are cold thru days 10-15. It's not until day 16 when they are warm. The link below starts day 10. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=epsens_opendata&p=850tw-mean&rh=2025013012&fh=240&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 Expand Part of it could be that the Pacific ridge extends into Alaska.. that is colder at the surface in the US. The other part may actually be model error, as they are maybe coming off a really cold period and running that forward? Save those maps, I bet in verification it will either be warmer, or the H5 will adjust differently to match the colder surface. It's a pretty strong -PNA/+NAO happening in the long range.. that usually trends warmer to the day of. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 On 1/31/2025 at 1:42 AM, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Part of it could be that the Pacific ridge extends into Alaska.. that is colder at the surface in the US. The other part may actually be model error, as they are maybe coming off a really cold period and running that forward? Save those maps, I bet in verification it will either be warmer, or the H5 will adjust differently to match the colder surface. Expand I definitely don't buy the model error idea, but I did consider it before posting. I just can't see how the ensembles are that flawed. An operational at range? Sure, but not an ensemble mean. I think it coukd be the cold is undercutting the higher heights in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 On 1/31/2025 at 1:01 AM, CAPE said: -NAO not always required for snow. Expand I'm a firm believer Pac side > Atl for snowfall potential. However, If you are big dog hunting a NAO ridge certainly helps. But yeah, we can score in a -NAO. Just keep the cold air source (-EPO?) in tact and the SER non-raging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 On 1/31/2025 at 1:47 AM, mitchnick said: I definitely don't buy the model error idea, but I did consider it before posting. I just can't see how the ensembles are that flawed. An operational at range? Sure, but not an ensemble mean. I think it coukd be the cold is undercutting the higher heights in the east. Expand I just can't see 500mb High between Aleutian islands and Hawaii at +300dm, and southern Greenland having negative 500mb and it not being above average.. maybe the 500mb pattern will change in future runs, it has been going back and forth a little the last few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Improvement in the NA on the 18z GEFS- a little closer to a useful NAO block, thermal boundary pressed further south with below avg temps pushing into the MA for mid month. Still waiting on the Pacific to shift a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 ^See, these are the two biggest regions for downstream East Coast troughs/ridges (-PNA/+NAO) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 On 1/31/2025 at 1:01 AM, CAPE said: -NAO not always required for snow. Expand Agree. Not always. But heading into February and March. Yeah. We are gonna need it. Or it will be cutter city. Hope I am wrong. Edit: I will add. Any precip is good for my garden so bring it. But no -NAO means the SE ridge will dominate. Is what it is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 On 1/30/2025 at 10:05 PM, Scarlet Pimpernel said: You win the interwebs today, sir!! LOL!!! And that plot...just seems like a @ravensrule bat signal right there! Expand I didn’t even notice that on first look. I’m so disappointed in myself. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 On 1/31/2025 at 1:47 AM, Ralph Wiggum said: But yeah, we can score in a -NAO Expand In late winter. Not really. Just saying. No -Nao means cutter city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 On 1/31/2025 at 1:50 AM, CAPE said: Improvement in the NA on the 18z GEFS- a little closer to a useful NAO block, thermal boundary pressed further south with below avg temps pushing into the MA for mid month. Still waiting on the Pacific to shift a bit. Expand Chuck, I posted that days 10-15 on the Gefs had cold 850's but got warm on day 16. 378hrs that CAPE posted is day 16 and that is warm. But day 16 forecasts, including ensembles, will undoubtedly change one way or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 On 1/31/2025 at 2:07 AM, mitchnick said: Chuck, I posted that days 10-15 on the Gefs had cold 850's but got warm on day 16. 378hrs that CAPE posted is day 16 and that is warm. But day 16 forecasts, including ensembles, will undoubtedly change one way or the other. Expand Ok.. I'm saying the Pacific, if it looks like this with the highest anomaly ridge this far south, is a warm pattern.. Maybe in future runs it will show the H further north or over Alaska.. that will get you colder at the surface. I've seen that kind of change happen in the last few days. But beyond Day 10 on 18z GEFS, the Pacific -PNA ridge is pretty far south, and would verify as an above normal temp pattern most likely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 On 1/31/2025 at 2:04 AM, clskinsfan said: In late winter. Not really. Just saying. No -Nao means cutter city. Expand Some of our largest late season storms were + nao phases. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 That we're seeing another strong February RNA is just insane, here's the last 7 consecutive years! The trend has often carried into March, although not as strong as Feb 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 On 1/31/2025 at 2:33 AM, Ralph Wiggum said: Some of our largest late season storms were + nao phases. Expand In Feb and March? Examples? As the longwave pattern starts to change in spring we need a -NAO for bombs. I cannot think of a single example of a big snowstorm on the coastal plain without it. Now out here and up there? Yeah. we can score. Because we hold CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 On 1/31/2025 at 2:13 AM, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Ok.. I'm saying the Pacific, if it looks like this with the highest anomaly ridge this far south, is a warm pattern.. Maybe in future runs it will show the H further north or over Alaska.. that will get you colder at the surface. I've seen that kind of change happen in the last few days. But beyond Day 10 on 18z GEFS, the Pacific -PNA ridge is pretty far south, and would verify as an above normal temp pattern most likely. We need to find a way to pinch off another pv lobe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 On 1/31/2025 at 2:45 AM, clskinsfan said: In Feb and March? Examples? As the longwave pattern starts to change in spring we need a -NAO for bombs. I cannot think of a single example of a big snowstorm on the coastal plain without it. Now out here and up there? Yeah. we can score. Because we hold CAD. Expand March 13, 1993 March 1958 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 On 1/31/2025 at 2:45 AM, clskinsfan said: In Feb and March? Examples? As the longwave pattern starts to change in spring we need a -NAO for bombs. I cannot think of a single example of a big snowstorm on the coastal plain without it. Now out here and up there? Yeah. we can score. Because we hold CAD. Expand Coastal plain. Yeah. But you didn't mention that in your op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 On 1/31/2025 at 3:04 AM, Ralph Wiggum said: March 13, 1993 Expand You have to bring up the "Storm of the Century" to dispute my point. Damn Ralph. Thats rough for me to counter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 On 1/31/2025 at 2:07 AM, mitchnick said: Chuck, I posted that days 10-15 on the Gefs had cold 850's but got warm on day 16. 378hrs that CAPE posted is day 16 and that is warm. But day 16 forecasts, including ensembles, will undoubtedly change one way or the other. Expand Yeah Day 15+ is can kick territory, imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 On 1/31/2025 at 3:08 AM, Maestrobjwa said: Yeah Day 15+ is can kick territory, imo Expand We are definitely in a lull/reload when we are debating teleconnections 15+ days out. Watch something sneak up now mid range and the warmup get muted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Looks like cold air is trying to I made the usa again in next 8 to 14 days.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 GFS trend.. It will be interesting too see if the long range does this, or if the H5 shifts away from a pretty far south -PNA in the Pacific https://ibb.co/BVGSHXvY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 0z EPS has more -EPO in the long range... that's definitely the colder scenario. GEFS holds the -PNA. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 0z Euro shows this for the 11th. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 On 1/31/2025 at 11:11 AM, Blizzard of 93 said: 0z Euro shows this for the 11th. Expand SOLD 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Here is the 0z EPS look for week 2. Temps are near to slightly below normal during this time. The EPS snow map for just week 2 is ramping up amounts for this period. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 On 1/31/2025 at 12:20 PM, WxUSAF said: Expand 6Z GFS is all about it. Certainly are indications on the ensemble runs lately, with the Scandi ridge building into the NAO domain. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 https://x.com/burgwx/status/1885138563982917803 From Tomer Regardless of whether a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event occurs or not, the stubbornly strong stratospheric polar vortex is likely to weaken — both GFS & ECMWF show anomalously strong 100-hPa poleward heat flux: The TPV tends to remain in SE Canada per Bamm https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/1884994744310178230 We have a continued source region of cold air moving into the middle of Feb and beyond. - NAO looks to develop as mentioned, along with a gradual - NAM state. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 AO set to go negative by mid Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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