February Medium/Long Range Thread

[Paleocene]

[Solution Man]

Just now, Paleocene said:

[cbmclean]

5 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

I like big splits and I can not lie

You other weenies can’t deny

When the strat walks in with an ittybitty waist and a round thing in your face

You get COLD!  

So does a split stratospheric PV mean anything for the lower troposphere?

 

[Its a Breeze]

Oh no. The Canadian was also showing temps in the mid 70s for the 6th...

I mean, it is showing mid 40s now. And snow a couple days later. But...it did show that at one point.

 

 

[Lowershoresadness]

6 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

I like big splits and I can not lie

You other weenies can’t deny

When the strat walks in with an ittybitty waist and a round thing in your face

You get COLD!  

I love Jay Z

[ravensrule]

6 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

I like big splits and I can not lie

You other weenies can’t deny

When the strat walks in with an ittybitty waist and a round thing in your face

You get COLD!  

I didn't know Sir Mix A Lot lived in Columbia. NICE. 

[Heisy]

Speaking of good splits
.

[Eskimo Joe]

8 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

Holy moley that is terrible. Prime climo and we're torching. JFC.

[Terpeast]

I'm favoring warmer solutions for the week of feb 3-9 because the teles strongly point toward that. Which is why I'm not invested in the feb 6 threat. Still can change, but very very long shot there.

[Chris78]

3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Holy moley that is terrible. Prime climo and we're torching. JFC.

And then a couple days later it snows per the euro

[cbmclean]

5 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Speaking of good splits
.

What, if anything, are the potential implications for an SPV split in terms of sensible weather?  I'm not really familiar with split PVs. 

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Holy moley that is terrible. Prime climo and we're torching. JFC.

It's just a few days, calm down.  We are going to have a 2-3 week milder and more hostile for snow pattern...but we are already tracking possible longshot snow threads in the middle of this "worse" pattern and already seeing the signs of the flip back cold at the end.  This is so much better than recent years when we spent the majority of winter in a no hope shutout looking pattern.  

[mitchnick]

15 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

Enjoy it while it lasts if you enjoy it because...

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, cbmclean said:

What, if anything, are the potential implications for an SPV split in terms of sensible weather?  I'm not really familiar with split PVs. 

They typically coincide with a period of -AO 

[Maestrobjwa]

6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Holy moley that is terrible. Prime climo and we're torching. JFC.

C'mon man you've been doing this for years...Feb is always tough in a nina with that ser wanting to pump. BUT...look what COULD happen right after...cold again 

[cbmclean]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

They typically coincide with a period of -AO 

Then sign me up for splitsville!

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, cbmclean said:

Then sign me up for splitsville!

As modeled this would be a better split than we've had in recent years...not all splits are created equal! It's like hitting a gel pack with a hammer...how the gel inside splits depends on where ya hit it! A couple years ago I think it split to the middle of the country. Other times it could split to the other side of the globe like 2022-23 (I think that was the year) @psuhoffman Let me know if I'm off base on any of that!

[cbmclean]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

As modeled this would be a better split than we've had in recent years...not all splits are created equal! It's like hitting a gel pack with a hammer...how the gel inside splits depends on where ya hit it! A couple years ago I think it split to the middle of the country. Other times it could split to the other side of the globe like 2022-23 (I think that was the year) @psuhoffman Let me know if I'm off base on any of that!

Yes I was aware of the mercurial nature of SPV collapses (aka SSW events), just not as familiar with splits.

[IronTy]

What the funk?  I swear yesterday I came on here and people were talking about snow potential for 2/6 and now I see I'm gonna have to turn my A/C on instead?  Somebody get these models some BPD meds.   

[Maestrobjwa]

30 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

What have you done, lol

[Lowershoresadness]

5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

What have you done, lol

How many inches of snow is that red?

[SnowenOutThere]

4 minutes ago, Lowershoresadness said:

How many inches of snow is that red?

Looks like around 70, exciting times coming up for sure! 

[stormtracker]

37 minutes ago, Lowershoresadness said:

I love Jay Z

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

48 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

@psuhoffman is fringed ...only in the mid 60s where higher amounts are to his south!  But we have some room for the inevitable northward shift of higher values!

[mitchnick]

Pretty decent snowfall mean on the Eps. Better than yesterday I believe. 

[mitchnick]

12z EuroAI is weaker with the snow on the 5th, though still there. Pure guess of 1-2" max.

2/6 is warmer than last run and looks like snow to start in the northern forum and snow/mix in the south, then all to rain for everyone. Don't see temps getting as warm as the operational around the 6th/7th, with warmest around the 9th/10th before another cold shot leads into below. 

BIG threat on the 12th-13th which is showing up on both operationals and definitely the ensembles. Eps really likes that period. 

The run ends seasonably cold and a another cold shot looking to head south out of Canada. 

[Terpeast]

24 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

12z EuroAI is weaker with the snow on the 5th, though still there. Pure guess of 1-2" max.

2/6 is warmer than last run and looks like snow to start in the northern forum and snow/mix in the south, then all to rain for everyone. Don't see temps getting as warm as the operational around the 6th/7th, with warmest around the 9th/10th before another cold shot leads into below. 

BIG threat on the 12th-13th which is showing up on both operationals and definitely the ensembles. Eps really likes that period. 

The run ends seasonably cold and a another cold shot looking to head south out of Canada. 

Agreed on feb 12-13th window, or should I say it gets colder after the 9th or 10th then we may have something to track there. At least based on today's ens runs

[TheClimateChanger]

56 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Pretty decent snowfall mean on the Eps. Better than yesterday I believe. 

3" of snow over 15 days at Pittsburgh from an ensemble mean, which is probably being affected by a few low-probability outliers. That's like 40% of normal. Not a very impressive snow signal IMHO.

[Chris78]

12 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

3" of snow over 15 days at Pittsburgh from an ensemble mean, which is probably being affected by a few low-probability outliers. That's like 40% of normal. Not a very impressive snow signal IMHO.

I'm glad I don't live in Pittsburgh. 

[WEATHER53]

1 hour ago, IronTy said:

What the funk?  I swear yesterday I came on here and people were talking about snow potential for 2/6 and now I see I'm gonna have to turn my A/C on instead?  Somebody get these models some BPD meds.   

CAB is very real