Ji Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: 12z GEFS with a better look in the NA at the end- Scandi ridge poking into GL with lower heights developing towards 50-50. EPS similar. Still need that shift in the Pacific. EPS showing cold enough towards the end of the run 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 AI still threatening for the 5th and 6th, though it keeps changing here and there. All I'll say is that it looks like most in the forum gets snow at different times. Probably light to moderate at best. Too hard to parse through 3 separate maps to figure it out. Wait for TT or WxBell. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 AI has the 2/12 event. Definitely starts as snow probably DC north but likely ends as something else south of PA line, maybe further north from thateven. Again, wait for TT/WxBell. End of the run has a trough in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 AI still threatening for the 5th and 6th, though it keeps changing here and there. All I'll say is that it looks like most in the forum gets snow at different times. Probably light to moderate at best. Too hard to parse through 3 separate maps to figure it out. Wait for TT or WxBell. Boundary event like this will be shaky on modeling this far out. Impossible. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 One notable thing I'm seeing on modeling now is -EPO has trended stronger in the medium-long range, even compared to 0z/6z this morning. Something to watch for when the cold gets back far enough east instead of staying to the west. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: At 360hrs, it's loading up for another overrunning event, but this is a little warmer to start, but not by much. Getting the feeling that we should enjoy the next week or so. Backloaded winter with substantial tracking inoming? 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Today's Eps weekly MJO mean forecast. Would be nice if the MJO did just this and let our luck rest on something else. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/mofc_multi_mjo_family_index?base_time=202501290000 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Eps with the best snowfall mean of the 12z runs. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Poor Chuck, his one or two runs of the GFS led him astray on his warm call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 6 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: Poor Chuck, his one or two runs of the GFS led him astray on his warm call Thanks for the jinx. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 5 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Thanks for the jinx. You truly live and die by each and every model run don't you? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 lol how predictable 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 12 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: lol how predictable In fairness it trended warmer for the first 10 days of Feb from 1-2 weeks ago. But now fits a more logical progression 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 hour ago, aldie 22 said: Poor Chuck, his one or two runs of the GFS led him astray on his warm call I said yesterday the EPS was probably closer. It's probably not going to snow for the next 15+ days though.. 64 in DC today.. -PNA patterns overperform for warmth here.. that's my point 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Feb 6 wave is a little warmer on 18z GFS. Baltimore and north is where the rain-mix line is @ 177 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 58 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: You truly live and die by each and every model run don't you? Lol Ahh...No! Aldie and I have been posting on these boards for 20+ years and bust each other's chops now and then. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 18z Gfs has the 2/12 storm but a day or so earlier. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: 18z Gfs has the 2/12 storm but a day or so earlier. 8 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 47 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Ahh...No! Aldie and I have been posting on these boards for 20+ years and bust each other's chops now and then. I have known you since you were in diapers.... adult diapers that is. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said: You truly live and die by each and every model run don't you? Lol I think we all do. It affects my mood. I’m sure no one on here is like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 26 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 18z Gfs has the 2/12 storm but a day or so earlier. So 2/11? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 SOLD 3 1 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 27 minutes ago, ravensrule said: I have known you since you were in diapers.... adult diapers that is. Get off my lawn, you damned trick-or-treaters!!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29 Author Share Posted January 29 27 minutes ago, bncho said: SOLD only 57 more runs to go 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 35 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: So 2/11? If I said 2/11, JI would have expected a second storm on 2/12. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 18z Gefs likes the period from day 10-14. Top map is total snowfall thru 240hrs and bottom map is 336hrs. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 6 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 18z Gefs likes the period from day 10-14. Top map is total snowfall thru 240hrs and bottom map is 336hrs. That's a huge ass signal. Winter isn't over yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: If it looks like that 48 hours out I’ll feel confident….. That I’ll get another big snow and 95 might get a slushy inch. JK….kinda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 If only that sweet MECS wasn’t 300 hrs away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Without blocking storms tend to trend NW. With blocking not so much. We saw both phenomena this season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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