CAPE Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 5 minutes ago, Ji said: you have to like the look of canada at 144 on the euro Cold High building south from Central Canada. Potential gradient pattern for the days to follow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 12z GFS has a wave for the 6th. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 7 minutes ago, CAPE said: 12z GFS has a wave for the 6th. the good moisture is too suppressed though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 the GGEM is 25 degrees warmer lol 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 2 minutes ago, bncho said: I talked to a Canadian person and they told me that they only wear long-sleeves and pants for 10 degree weather. Maybe it's adjusted to how they feel? if your going to try to be funny...at least be funny 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Some action on the GFS in 330 hour fantasy range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 26 minutes ago, Ji said: the good moisture is too suppressed though Not bad. Juice it up a tad with a bit more of a cold press. As depicted its not likely going to be a big storm with the elongated shortwave energy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Despite what some may bad about Bamwx, this is a decent explanation of February into March and his ideas on cold returning for the end of February into March match Psu's analogs. Don't judge it on the first page map you see. Lol I really recommend it because he includes some good reasoning too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 4 hours ago, mitchnick said: 6z AI now has 2/5 in play. One impulse comes thru on the 5th and a second round on the 6th/7th. DC north looks OK at 850 and surface, possibly a bit south of DC. This precip link starts on 2/5 so you can move it forward for precip amounts. Precip amounts on that top link are in 6 hour increments, but bottom is 12 hour for maybe a better idea of totals. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202501290600&interval=6&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202502050600 https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202501290600&interval=12&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202502050600 Crucial test for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Just now, WEATHER53 said: Crucial test for it its already failed. The 12z euro is a disaster 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 hour ago, CAPE said: 12z GFS has a wave for the 6th. A wave you say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 4 minutes ago, Ji said: its already failed. The 12z euro is a disaster Has a day 14 MECS at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 5 minutes ago, Ji said: its already failed. The 12z euro is a disaster AI isn't out until 2, so we'll wait and see what it shows. The operational ain't what it used to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Has a day 14 MECS at least Don't be shy. Let's see! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Just now, mitchnick said: AI isn't out until 2, so we'll wait and see what it shows. The operational ain't what it used to be. the OP to me has been way better than the AI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Don't be shy. Let's see! 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Just now, Ji said: the OP to me has been way better than the AI I think the AI has definitely been better 120hrs or less "most" of the time. Beyond 120hrs, they've both been hit or miss. AI was first to show the 2/6 threat, so we'll see how that ultimately goes. It's been getting stronger with the cold pushes around the 6th, so it'll be interesting to see which always it goes in 45 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: the rain/snow line is too far north for my liking 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29 Author Share Posted January 29 2 minutes ago, Ji said: the rain/snow line is too far north for my liking It's 340 hours. It's not going to happen. And if it does, not exactly like that. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 7 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: About time I get bullseye for an event. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: It's 340 hours. So should they wait for the next shift before issuing warnings? 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: It's 340 hours. It's not going to happen. And if it does, not exactly like that. itll be better lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: It's 340 hours. It's not going to happen. And if it does, not exactly like that. It isn't? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It's 340 hours. It's not going to happen. And if it does, not exactly like that. i know man....i was joking....but the 2nd half of Feb is suppose to rock right? That storm should be there lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 10 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Gimme that and call it a winter 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 At 360hrs, it's loading up for another overrunning event, but this is a little warmer to start, but not by much. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: At 360hrs, it's loading up for another overrunning event, but this is a little warmer to start, but not by much. the biggest mistake the european did this year was extend out to 360 hours. Now that its done...i wish they did it for 6z and 18z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 the storm the euro showed for Feb 10 may not be far fetched if the EPS is right 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 12z GEFS with a better look in the NA at the end- Scandi ridge poking into GL with lower heights developing towards 50-50. EPS similar. Still need that shift in the Pacific. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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