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February Medium/Long Range Thread


stormtracker
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11 minutes ago, CAPE said:

EPS hasn't looked that way. One might be more correct than the other. Wonder which one?

EPS has probably been better in that range this Winter.  It's the first run where the GFS ensembles have such a strong signal, so I'd like to see it sustain for a few more runs, but verbatim that's at least 60s, maybe 70s, because it's happening with a +NAO. 

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Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

EPS has probably been better in that range this Winter.  It's the first run where the GFS ensembles have such a strong signal, so I'd like to see it sustain for a few more runs, but verbatim that's at least 60s, maybe 70s, because it's happening with a +NAO/AO. 

 

15 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

12z GEFS really went wild with the -PNA/SE ridge pattern in the medium-long range. 5700dm heights for Feb 10th on the mean, so if the Euro is showing snow it's an outlier. 

 

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Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Well it would take a massive shift in the GEFS H5 for snow to occur, 1/50 type stuff. Maybe it's somewhere between the 2 models. 

At 12 days out, there is a pretty decent chance the outcome on the 12z Euro isn't correct. I just don't think that has much to do with the 12z GEFS going apeshit with the -PNA or SER.

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4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

At 12 days out, there is a pretty decent chance the outcome on the 12z Euro isn't correct. I just don't think that has much to do with the 12z GEFS going apeshit with the -PNA or SER.

I just think it's a really strong signal on the mean for being so far out. I think the mean is approaching +300dm south of the Aleutian islands. It's been going back and forth a lot this Winter, I've seen -PNA patterns dissolve and move into -EPO domain in future time this Winter.  If the EPS isn't aligned that's a little cause for less confidence. 

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