February Medium/Long Range Thread

[stormtracker]

Doom or Delight?

Rest of January hot garbage.   First week of Feb ain't looking too great either.   But there's hope!  Mid Feb until ?  Rockin? 

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z GEPS....see you in the second week of February....

[bncho]

Y'know, this upcoming pattern may suck, and hoping for March snow is almost always a let down, but hey, maybe we can get a mid-February surprise.

[mitchnick]

8 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z GEPS....see you in the second week of February....

Maybe sooner at some locations according to the 18z Icon.

[J.Mike]

Is there a 'meh' icon?

[Solution Man]

2 minutes ago, J.Mike said:

Is there a 'meh' icon?

 

 

[Maestrobjwa]

Not that sure if either one would reach down here, but do I spy a couple of clippers on tonight's runs? 

[CAPE]

Well, we can use the rain. Other than the snow that fell Jan has been another dry month. 

[CAPE]

EPS has the best h5 look heading into mid Feb. Trough in the central US with more of a WAR and less SER.

[Terpeast]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

EPS has the best h5 look heading into mid Feb. Trough in the central US with more of a WAR and less SER.

Massive EPO ridge even linking with the west coast ridge. Probably smoothing out some pac blocking

[mitchnick]

Ai threatening for 2/6 bigtime.

Dropped my phone and need a new one so can't post more. 0z was snow to mix but 6z looks like a lot of snow. More north.

 

  

[Porsche]

18 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Ai threatening for 2/6 bigtime.

Dropped my phone and need a new one so can't post more. 0z was snow to mix but 6z looks like a lot of snow. More north.

 

  

Another @HeisyHECS?

[Terpeast]

20 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Ai threatening for 2/6 bigtime.

Dropped my phone and need a new one so can't post more. 0z was snow to mix but 6z looks like a lot of snow. More north.

 

  

it's close, but 850 low too far north. A good central PA hit. But still plenty of time. That week is supposed to be a warm week with MC convection firing, so I don't think there is much support for a wintry event that period. It'll come down to timing of cold air (if any)

[dailylurker]

The CMC says enjoy the wide spread 70's late next week. 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

it's close, but 850 low too far north. A good central PA hit. But still plenty of time. That week is supposed to be a warm week with MC convection firing, so I don't think there is much support for a wintry event that period. It'll come down to timing of cold air (if any)

Yeah at that point it would be a thread the needle deal to get frozen into most of our region. 6z GFS has something in that timeframe as well but frozen is to our north. The following wave around the 10th looks interesting, but way the hell out there.

[frd]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

Massive EPO ridge even linking with the west coast ridge. Probably smoothing out some pac blocking

Going to take a while for maritime forcing to become more favorable for the East. Meanwhile,  still awaiting for continued signs regarding a drop in the AO. 

If and when the cold air takes over in the East,  it may coincide with a very active weather pattern. Some late Feb and early March analogs are very active precip-wise.    

[Terpeast]

6 minutes ago, frd said:

Going to take a while for maritime forcing to become more favorable for the East. Meanwhile,  still awaiting for continued signs regarding a drop in the AO. 

If and when the cold air takes over in the East,  it may coincide with a very active weather pattern. Some late Feb and early March analogs are very active precip-wide    

Yeah I'm looking at Feb 12-15 when we get into 7, which is a transitory phase that kicks off favorable storm tracks and -EPO should supply cold air to our side. How quickly we get there is the million dollar question. GEFS says slower, EPS says faster.

[mitchnick]

23 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

it's close, but 850 low too far north. A good central PA hit. But still plenty of time. That week is supposed to be a warm week with MC convection firing, so I don't think there is much support for a wintry event that period. It'll come down to timing of cold air (if any)

850s start and stay nice thru most of storm. Lot of precip.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-z500-t850?base_time=202501280600&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202502060600

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

850s start and stay nice thru most of storm. Lot of precip.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-z500-t850?base_time=202501280600&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202502060600

Looks like a Miller B

[mitchnick]

Just now, CAPE said:

Looks like a Miller B

Yes and lots of precip from crummy maps.

[CAPE]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Yes and lots of precip from crummy maps.

Yeah it looks juicy.

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Yeah it looks juicy.

Looks like some snow to mix to ice to rain type deal for areas west of I-95. Would happily take it 

[CAPE]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

Looks like some snow to mix to ice to rain type deal for areas west of I-95. Would happily take it 

Something like that. Verbatim probably mostly/all snow for N MD.

[CAPE]

Meanwhile the Euro/EPS have a mild juicy rainstorm cranking in the middle of the country on the 7th with a low tracking towards the GLs.

[Dabuckeyes]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

850s start and stay nice thru most of storm. Lot of precip.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-z500-t850?base_time=202501280600&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202502060600

GFS 12z with a similar system. Slightly warmer. 

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Ai threatening for 2/6 bigtime.

Dropped my phone and need a new one so can't post more. 0z was snow to mix but 6z looks like a lot of snow. More north.

 

  

That sucks...the phone. 

[mitchnick]

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That sucks...the phone. 

Just got back from getting the new phone. Another Samsung because I've always had one and refuse to try to learn an IPhone. That said, I abhore the learning curve for a new phone and getting rid of all the garbage on them. UGHHHHHHHH 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Just got back from getting the new phone. Another Samsung because I've always had one and refuse to try to learn an IPhone. That said, I abhore the learning curve for a new phone and getting rid of all the garbage on them. UGHHHHHHHH 

Oh yeah, none of my bookmarks or saved passwords transferred. 

[aldie 22]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Oh yeah, none of my bookmarks or saved passwords transferred. 

Don't you have a grandson who can help you lol

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, aldie 22 said:

Don't you have a grandson who can help you lol

No, he's only 2. But you could get along with him fine I bet.