Discussion-OBS Jan 31-Feb 2 rain, potential minor interior impact mixed wintry events, mainly Fri Jan 31, Sun afternoon-eve Feb 2. Failed 7 day lead time LI winter impact.

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

That storm was an anomaly.  It moved west directly over nyc

But it's the time of year that matters.  The waters are at their coldest starting now.

[jm1220]

38 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

as a matter of fact I remember you were the one who was amazed in that snowicane storm in February 2010 and said wow we're getting blizzard conditions on a southerly wind, now I've seen it all lol.

 

We didn’t change over to snow until the flow became northerly that day and the CCB fully developed and pivoted the snow around to the west. Initially we were stuck with crap maritime airmass and it had to be pushed out. Models have it in the mid to upper 30s tomorrow night and winds are onshore. It’s also a much weaker storm than the Feb 2010 snowicane lol. We’ll see what happens. 

[wdrag]

So... you're probably noticing N Shore LI and CP now modeled for measurable snow-sleet tomorrow eve.  We'll see if happens.

No matter, I plan to post later Monday the Jan 31-Feb 2 snow sleet totals and compare agains the originating 00z/26 guidance  You already know about the ice in nw NJ/e PA/se NYS which was a Friday morning delay producer for many schools (not snow but a significant non visible winter element hazard both underfoot and for aviation considerations-deicing). Snow-ice OBS tomorrow should go into this thread, if you have any. Thank you.

[MJO812]

Nam

[wishcast_hater]

So this is a coating to an inch for me. Is that about right? I’m above 84


.

[MJO812]

[psv88]

I believe Canada is charging us an additional 25% for the RGEM now? 

[Allsnow]

 

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, jm1220 said:

We didn’t change over to snow until the flow became northerly that day and the CCB fully developed and pivoted the snow around to the west. Initially we were stuck with crap maritime airmass and it had to be pushed out. Models have it in the mid to upper 30s tomorrow night and winds are onshore. It’s also a much weaker storm than the Feb 2010 snowicane lol. We’ll see what happens. 

I think that night when we were snowing heavily the winds were howling out of the south though?  Maybe we can go back and check, but that was one WILD night!

[wdrag]

Looks like first snow grains, freezing drizzle or patches of light snow showers could start sometime between 11A-2P on parts of e Li. Radar starting to show weak echos off LI.  

[jm1220]

HRRR looks a little better for the north shore with maybe 1", but it's the only model that really has any accumulation. It'll be close here but the heavier QPF NE of us and onshore flow are working against us. The south shore looks cooked. Congrats CT and Hudson Valley.

[LibertyBell]

28 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Looks like first snow grains, freezing drizzle or patches of light snow showers could start sometime between 11A-2P on parts of e Li. Radar starting to show weak echos off LI.  

storm coming in backwards, east to west, Walt?

[BxEngine]

26 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

storm coming in backwards, east to west, Walt?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

[EastonSN+]

Looks like a nice coating to 3 inches for the northern half of the sub forum. Favored are the Northern areas of Westchester and coastal Connecticut.

[Allsnow]

Congrats @Brian5671

 

 

[snowman19]

10 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Congrats @Brian5671

 

 

The HRRR has been very consistent run after run today that Connecticut is the sweet spot for tonight. It’s actually been cutting down amounts west and south of where the advisory is. I think it’s probably less than an inch south and west of the advisory area. The HRDPS is showing the exact same thing as the HRRR and has also been very consistent for many runs now

HRRR: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2025020217&fh=18&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

HRDPS:  https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrdps&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2025020217&fh=18&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

[Allsnow]

 

[jm1220]

Models seem to be shifting QPF to the north and east at the last minute. Might end up being congrats eastern half of CT to Boston. Latest HRRR has under 0.1" liquid for most of Fairfield County CT and LI west of the twin forks where it's too warm for snow. 

[EastonSN+]

33 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

Nice appetizer for what may come later this month. 

Not liking that I have to stay up to measure LOL.

[EastonSN+]

32 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Models seem to be shifting QPF to the north and east at the last minute. Might end up being congrats eastern half of CT to Boston. Latest HRRR has under 0.1" liquid for most of Fairfield County CT and LI west of the twin forks where it's too warm for snow. 

So far it's really just the hrrr. Let's see what the nams and rgem show.

[EastonSN+]

12K and 3K Nam pretty much held serve. Perhaps a touchless in New Jersey.

[qg_omega]

Is it going to snow tonight?

[psv88]

It’s only 27 here. Shame we will switch to rain. Feels like snow 

[EastonSN+]

8 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Is it going to snow tonight?

Yep winter weather advisories for Connecticut and one to three potentially for Westchester county.

[psv88]

Even the barrier islands sitting at 30. Huge temp bust today. Shame we won’t take advantage 

[EastonSN+]

[Nibor]

Sprinkling graupel here. 

[jm1220]

HRRR still very dry but other models more wet, 0.2-0.25" or so. If we can catch a break maybe temps will stay cold enough and it can stay snow for many. It's a weak system and the onshore flow isn't that strong but hard to argue against just about every model having zilch south of the CT coast or Hudson Valley. The RGEM and latest NAM 3K has some chance in northern parts of the city and N Shore. 

[hudsonvalley21]

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 345 PM EST Sun Feb 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS... A warm front lifts through tonight followed by a cold front on Monday night. High pressure returns Tuesday into Wednesday. A complex frontal system then approaches late Wednesday and impact the area from Wednesday night into Thursday. High pressure will return on Friday before another frontal system next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for interior southern CT. A mid-level shortwave approaches this evening along with a warm front at the surface. Vertical forcing with mid level positive vorticity advection will result in widespread precipitation from west to east tonight. For the Lower Hudson Valley, southern CT and much of northeast NJ, this is expected to fall as all snow. For Long Island, coastal CT and the NY/NJ metro area, with warming surface and boundary layer temps from a southerly flow, precip may start as snow and then turn to a wintry mix and or all rain.

The shortwave has had a very subtle strengthening trend across much of the guidance over the past several model cycles. This may be the reason for the upward trend in QPF across the 12z guidance. QPF totals were bumped up to 0.25 to 0.30 inches over southern CT, with 0.10 to 0.20 inches elsewhere. With these totals in CT, even being conservative with SLRs (10-12:1) would result in around 3 inches of snow (Advisory criteria) across the interior. For this reason, issued an Advisory there. Higher SLRs are not out of the question as the 12z hi res guidance agreed on a 1-3 hour window with strong lift maximized in the DGZ. This would lead to a period of moderate snow and snowfall rates close to 1 inch per hour. Farther west, across the Lower Hudson Valley, lift is weaker and QPF is lower. This is likely a result of the orientation and timing of the LLJ. Totals here will be closer to 1-2 inches, with isolated 3 inch amounts.

As the precip tapers off after midnight, the mid levels dry out and this may result in a period of lingering patchy freezing drizzle across the interior into early Monday morning. Confidence in this is low and will be monitored for a potential Special Weather Statement.

[Tatamy]

Light snow here.  27/22.  Visibility 2 1/2 miles.  Light coating on paved surfaces.