Discussion-OBS Jan 31-Feb 2 rain, potential minor interior impact mixed wintry events, mainly Fri Jan 31, Sun afternoon-eve Feb 2. Failed 7 day lead time LI winter impact.

[LibertyBell]

17 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

.15 

0.09 in the park so far, more to the north and west as usual.

[Dark Star]

Wow, talk about a screw zone.  Glad this is "supposed" to be rain...

[doncat]

Yeah just 0.11" here , looks like most stays to south.Dryness continues.

[doncat]

Finished the month with 0.58" precip...driest January during 45 year station record.(Old record 1.13" way back in 1985). Have had two of my three driest months all time during last 4 months. About 10" below normal since Sept.

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, Dark Star said:

Wow, talk about a screw zone.  Glad this is "supposed" to be rain...

I'm fine with it, it was 0.13 as of 11 PM

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, doncat said:

Finished the month with 0.58" precip...driest January during 45 year station record.(Old record 1.13" way back in 1985). Have had two of my three driest months all time during last 4 months. About 10" below normal since Sept.

we're finally switching back to an -AMO

 

[wdrag]

17 hours ago, Picard said:

Had ice in Sparta too.  Schools were on a 2 hour delay.  In fact, I backed out into the street and the car promptly slid sideways a foot or two. which I was not anticipating (maybe I should have).  Definitely black ice.  The metric tons of salt still left over from the last one didn't really help a lot.  I heard they re-salted after I left.  The main roads were fine.

Hopefully some more rain materializes later.  The overall dry conditions continue to persist as we are already 2/3 of the way through MET winter.  Hopefully the pattern changes, in time to bring some more snow, but I'll take the rain too.

I'm posting a map for Thursday morning delays ... should be worse. That map is the chance of >0.10 water equiv ice...use 1/3rd of that for thickness.

Good info you posted. Was like an ice skating rink on my driveway...  that was from 0.02 melted.  Thursday morning as bad or significantly more hazardous... details tbd.  No thread since not NYC-thi is a disappointment for sure and ensembles were too cold and too far south on last Sundays thread start. 

NYC and Li...might see a little spotty 0.1-0.2" snow acc Sunday afternoon-eve.  Morale win??? if it occurs??? NOT.

[MANDA]

Received .16" of rainfall for event just ended.  Disappointment but it did rid us of the road salt.

January total precipitation = 1.03".

January snowfall = 8.2"

Snowfall season to date = 23.7".

[Dark Star]

8 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I'm fine with it, it was 0.13 as of 11 PM

Amazingly, it was enough rain to clean our street, which had enough salt to kill every fish in the Rahway River from Cranford to the Arthur Kill, where it empties...

[wdrag]

Is there going to be any scow acc CP and north shore LI tomorrow afternoon eve to brighten the spirits. 

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Is there going to be any scow acc CP and north shore LI tomorrow afternoon eve to brighten the spirits. 

FWIW TWC is predicting one to three inches for the CP of Connecticut.

[EastonSN+]

HRRR has 1 to 3 CT coast. About an inch on the North fork of Long Island. A coating for the North shore of Western Long Island. About a half inch Westchester county.

[EastonSN+]

[EastonSN+]

NAM 12k that's up to a half an inch to Central Park. 1 to 3 coastal Connecticut. 

[EastonSN+]

[EastonSN+]

3K gets up to an inch to the North shore of Long Island, half an inch for Central Park and one to three for coastal Connecticut.

[Allsnow]

Great stuff @EastonSN+

 

keep up posted 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

3K gets up to an inch to the North shore of Long Island, half an inch for Central Park and one to three for coastal Connecticut.

what about the rest of long island lol

 

[EastonSN+]

9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

what about the rest of long island lol

 

Not much 

[MJO812]

Gfs 

[psv88]

North shore special tomorrow?

[SnoSki14]

Rgem looked nice

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

North shore special tomorrow?

Flow is onshore which means the south shore torches, and maybe we stay marginal enough for snow to stick. 

[Allsnow]

4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Flow is onshore which means the south shore torches, and maybe we stay marginal enough for snow to stick. 

18z euro .5 to an 1 away from the immediate shoreline 

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

18z euro .5 to an 1 away from the immediate shoreline 

If it’s more than the consolation coating still I’ll be thrilled. The meat of it looks to be north of us and temps will still be marginal. High end is maybe an inch and it’ll be gone in a few hours on Monday. It’s something though I guess. 

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Flow is onshore which means the south shore torches, and maybe we stay marginal enough for snow to stick. 

how cold are the SST? we're at the time of year when an onshore flow shouldn't matter so much..... February has been known to give us snowstorms even on a southerly wind (see the last storm in February 2010.)

 

 

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

If it’s more than the consolation coating still I’ll be thrilled. The meat of it looks to be north of us and temps will still be marginal. High end is maybe an inch and it’ll be gone in a few hours on Monday. It’s something though I guess. 

Enjoy, I guess? 

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Flow is onshore which means the south shore torches, and maybe we stay marginal enough for snow to stick. 

as a matter of fact I remember you were the one who was amazed in that snowicane storm in February 2010 and said wow we're getting blizzard conditions on a southerly wind, now I've seen it all lol.

 

[Stormlover74]

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

how cold are the SST? we're at the time of year when an onshore flow shouldn't matter so much..... February has been known to give us snowstorms even on a southerly wind (see the last storm in February 2010.)

 

 

That storm was an anomaly.  It moved west directly over nyc

[psv88]

7 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

If it’s more than the consolation coating still I’ll be thrilled. The meat of it looks to be north of us and temps will still be marginal. High end is maybe an inch and it’ll be gone in a few hours on Monday. It’s something though I guess. 

Going to be mid 30s. Can’t imagine anything sticks. High of 47 Monday so even if it did stick will be vaporized.

 

#winter25