Discussion-OBS Jan 31-Feb 2 rain, potential minor interior impact mixed wintry events, mainly Fri Jan 31, Sun afternoon-eve Feb 2. Failed 7 day lead time LI winter impact.

[NEG NAO]

30 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

It's very unsteady and not reliable.  I think most people here would prefer having a floor of around 20 inches (that is no season with less than 20 inches of snow.)

that was my point -  you are never going to get consistent average seasonal snowfall around here year to year -   there are wide variations in year to year totals - always has been that way

[STORMANLI]

3 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

It's coming. Mid February 

Quoting Yogi Berra " It Ain't Over 'Til It's Over" but I have heard that he never actually said that and the closest he came to it was when coaching the 1973 Mets- “Yeah, it’s running out, but you’re still not out of it until it’s automatic.”

Lenny Kravitz wrote and performed a song titled “It Ain’t Over 'til It’s Over” for his 1991 album “Mama Said.”

“It Ain’t Over… Till It’s Over: Reinventing Your Life - and Realizing Your Dreams - Anytime, at Any Age” is a book by Marlo Thomas

Sorry for banter; I don't get out much... but maybe with the milder temps who nows

[Dan76]

4 hours ago, STORMANLI said:

Quoting Yogi Berra " It Ain't Over 'Til It's Over" but I have heard that he never actually said that and the closest he came to it was when coaching the 1973 Mets- “Yeah, it’s running out, but you’re still not out of it until it’s automatic.”

Lenny Kravitz wrote and performed a song titled “It Ain’t Over 'til It’s Over” for his 1991 album “Mama Said.”

“It Ain’t Over… Till It’s Over: Reinventing Your Life - and Realizing Your Dreams - Anytime, at Any Age” is a book by Marlo Thomas

Sorry for banter; I don't get out much... but maybe with the milder temps who nows

And also "It gets late early around here'' with snow chances.

[wdrag]

No headline change yet.  Upper low now being modeled to lose its structure slower as it crosses PA Fri night.

Next short wave seems to have neg tilt for Sunday evening.  

I guess I'm not convinced of the sfc low  tracking north of us Fri-Fri night and 18z/28 EC op trying for some snow Sun night-Mon down to I80.   I just want to make sure before I give it up in the headline, that its really no chance. 

Will rereview at 730A Wednesday. 

[rgwp96]

2 hours ago, wdrag said:

No headline change yet.  Upper low now being modeled to lose its structure slower as it crosses PA Fri night.

Next short wave seems to have neg tilt for Sunday evening.  

I guess I'm not convinced of the sfc low  tracking north of us Fri-Fri night and 18z/28 EC op trying for some snow Sun night-Mon down to I80.   I just want to make sure before I give it up in the headline, that its really no chance. 

Will rereview at 730A Wednesday. 

Out of my 16 inches of snow this year only 6 of those inches were shown past 24hs out . I wouldn’t write  off anything yet past Friday that’s for sure 

[NEG NAO]

5 hours ago, wdrag said:

No headline change yet.  Upper low now being modeled to lose its structure slower as it crosses PA Fri night.

Next short wave seems to have neg tilt for Sunday evening.  

I guess I'm not convinced of the sfc low  tracking north of us Fri-Fri night and 18z/28 EC op trying for some snow Sun night-Mon down to I80.   I just want to make sure before I give it up in the headline, that its really no chance. 

Will rereview at 730A Wednesday. 

this event is not exactly a drought buster as it will barely deliver enough precip in the metro to get rid of the remaining salt on the road ( don't be surprised if some towns put down more ice melter spray prior to the light storm if temps are forecasted to be close to freezing) but after friday there will be only a few piles of hard frozen snow/ice left

[wdrag]

I will adjust the headline round 730-830A.  Regarding the much faster approach of the originating CA short wave... I added two maps.  The NAEFS ensemble used in the originating Sunday 26th post,  where the short wave would be at 7PM Friday and the current prediction of where the short wave (opening 5H low) in this mornings modeling for 7P Fri.  You probably see the speed change from the Central Plains to upper Ohio-Tn Valley---HUGE. 

[wdrag]

 

Headline change at 730AM Wed 1/29 for failed 7 day lead time on wintry accums NYC-LI.

Discussion-OBS Jan 31-Feb 2 rain, potential minor interior impact mixed wintry events, mainly Fri Jan 31, Sun afternoon-eve Feb 2. Failed 7 day lead time LI winter impact. Events accelerated 18 hours and warmer-further north than modeling posted in this initial 1/26 thread indicated. Wrap up hat happened will post Monday Feb 3.  P5 shows the NAEFS speed change.  

Ensembles were generally a little far south except possibly the CMCE. The EPS freezing rain probably had this pretty good, just maybe a little too close to NYC. 

I dong like failing but in advance, thought it best to call it like it looks to occur. Still room for further south-colder solution but unlikely much wintry impact on NYC-LI. For those who wish, continue to monitor and post here on whatever occurs.  

I think the NYC CLI (and surrounding cli sites) rain and January place in qpf history can eventually post here if you wish, or in the Jan thread. 

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

this event is not exactly a drought buster as it will barely deliver enough precip in the metro to get rid of the remaining salt on the road ( don't be surprised if some towns put down more ice melter spray prior to the light storm if temps are forecasted to be close to freezing) but after friday there will be only a few piles of hard frozen snow/ice left

this storm is an annoying pest because it ruins our historically dry January.  It's like getting ready to eat a delicious cake and just as you're about to bite into it, a fly comes and sits on it...

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, wdrag said:

I will adjust the headline round 730-830A.  Regarding the much faster approach of the originating CA short wave... I added two maps.  The NAEFS ensemble used in the originating Sunday 26th post,  where the short wave would be at 7PM Friday and the current prediction of where the short wave (opening 5H low) in this mornings modeling for 7P Fri.  You probably see the speed change from the Central Plains to upper Ohio-Tn Valley---HUGE. 

I still haven't seen a good explanation from anyone about what caused this huge speed change =\

[wdrag]

Anyone heading into nw NJ-I84 corridor of NYs-CT-MA Fri-Fri night should be alert for icing on untreated surfaces. NWS probs for .01 zr in that area >60-70% and now a 20% chc of .1 glaze in some high terrain locations. Additionally, modeling seems to be gradually shifting south since 00z/29...sfc low not going across NYS but instead near I80  and EPS snowfall axis slipping a bit s now into MA.  Still far away from us but still worth monitoring.Attached glaze potential near sunrise Friday. 

[rclab]

6 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

this storm is an annoying pest because it ruins our historically dry January.  It's like getting ready to eat a delicious cake and just as you're about to bite into it, a fly comes and sits on it...

Well Liberty based on the QPF graphic our snow hole transforms into a rain hole. …. And when you’re starving the only problem with a fly landing on the cake is that it may easily, unnoticed, become part of the meal. Stay well, as always ….

 

[wdrag]

18z/29 RGEM/EC now starting as snow se NYS Fri morning and as it see it, some model trends are continuing south. I dont buy the ICON far north, nor the NAM.  Thinking GFS/EC/CMC blend... and will watch how this steadies or sinks a little more on Thursdays cycles.

I know snow is the winter prime interest here, but ice is in the mix as the 21z/29 ensembles suggest, mirroring the previously posted 12z/29 SPC HREF ice graphic. 

[wdrag]

FYI;

[Dark Star]

On 1/28/2025 at 5:00 PM, Dan76 said:

And also "It gets late early around here'' with snow chances.

That's always a good one.  I am more optimistic this winter, since we have seen something resembling cold air...

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

That's always a good one.  I am more optimistic this winter, since we have seen something resembling cold air...

Saw this WSI graphic that indicates that NYC has had an *average* winter... they factor in cold, snowfall and days of snowcover into this index.

 

[STORMANLI]

47 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Saw this WSI graphic that indicates that NYC has had an *average* winter... they factor in cold, snowfall and days of snowcover into this index.

 

Has anyone seen the data on this? What time-frame database? 1991-2020? 

My perspective:

Cold- below average 

Snowfall and Snowcover days are a tossup.