Discussion-OBS Jan 31-Feb 2 rain, potential minor interior impact mixed wintry events, mainly Fri Jan 31, Sun afternoon-eve Feb 2. Failed 7 day lead time LI winter impact.

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

12z gfs further north. 
 

Record dry January in trouble 

depends on the amount, anything less than 0.13 and it's still a new record

[Allsnow]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

depends on the amount, anything less than 0.13 and it's still a new record

Gfs had over .5 

[MJO812]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

depends on the amount, anything less than 0.13 and it's still a new record

We should be able to break that .

[Allsnow]

Just now, MJO812 said:

We should be able to break that .

This is a great snow pattern for Maine 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Gfs had over .5 

0.5 inches of snow would be better ;-)

[Stormlover74]

Cmc is suppressed and has nothing Friday at least not until at night

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

This is a great snow pattern for Maine 

It’s a Nina year, it’s only a matter of time before things turn around to very snowy for NNE. 

[Allsnow]

Just now, jm1220 said:

It’s a Nina year, it’s only a matter of time before things turn around to very snowy for NNE. 

Plus Canada will remain cold for them 

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Cmc is suppressed and has nothing Friday at least not until at night

Models: GDPS — Pivotal Weather

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

It’s a Nina year, it’s only a matter of time before things turn around to very snowy for NNE. 

Our turn first and then them 

[NEG NAO]

this is still a system to monitor because if the colder air sets up further south and the storm is blocked as suggested by the Canadian especially  with a little more moisture there still is potential for a light to moderate event near the metro - also as Walt mentioned a clipper type system need to be monitored later in the weekend which could give us snow

[NEG NAO]

Then you have the ICON which has a stronger LP that cuts into Northern New England from the midwest

Models: ICON — Pivotal Weather

[NEG NAO]

12Z GEFS has snow starting later Saturday into Sunday

[Allsnow]

18 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

12Z GEFS has snow starting later Saturday into Sunday

What? 

[winterwx21]

27 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

What? 

Walt mentioned Sunday as a possibilty. GFS gives us some light snow. Euro has it too, but it's warmer and a little too far to the north. 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

Walt mentioned Sunday as a possibilty. GFS gives us some light snow. Euro has it too, but it's warmer and a little too far to the north. 

Euro AI also shifted south 

[MJO812]

Icon way less amped

[MJO812]

Gfs mild and rain

[Stormlover74]

13 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs mild and rain

Did you see Sunday? 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Did you see Sunday? 

Yes

[wdrag]

Suggest no one settle on any one solution or even ensembles.  There may be another two days of wobblings before we settle in.

 

The Friday rain is about 12-18 sooner than I anticipated at thread starts yesterday. I still dont think the modeling has it right and so despite what I see, in any one model... I prefer to wait on writing anything off or in. At least its interesting... tremendous variability and mutidays of my wintry interest anyway. Glad to see a southward cycle... and hoping this continues a bit more. GEFS has two good short waves crossing PA Saturday and early Monday.  LOTS of uncertainty.  My comments on page two are in play. 

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Yes

 

[Stormlover74]

Confusion abound lol

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Confusion abound lol

He always confused

[Stormlover74]

Icon and gfs have the Sunday wave 

[MJO812]

Cmc is still way south

[Rjay]

5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Icon and gfs have the Sunday wave 

Hour 90 0z gfs vs hour 90 0z cmc

 

[NEG NAO]

Also difference in timing of second later weekend wave

CMC Model – MSLP & Precip (Rain/Frozen) for CONUS | Tropical Tidbits

GFS Model – MSLP & Precip (Rain/Frozen) for CONUS | Tropical Tidbits

in fact GFS says snow here earlier later in weekend and CMC is later then GFS with liquid 

ICON has 3 events into early next week - first is liquid the next 2 frozen

Like Walt mentioned earlier individual model solutions will continue to change next few days

[winterwx21]

29 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Also difference in timing of second later weekend wave

CMC Model – MSLP & Precip (Rain/Frozen) for CONUS | Tropical Tidbits

GFS Model – MSLP & Precip (Rain/Frozen) for CONUS | Tropical Tidbits

in fact GFS says snow here earlier later in weekend and CMC is later then GFS with liquid 

ICON has 3 events into early next week - first is liquid the next 2 frozen

Like Walt mentioned earlier individual model solutions will continue to change next few days

I see UKMET is starting to pick up on Sunday's threat as well. The good thing is we have fresh cold air coming in Saturday, so it could be cold enough for a little accumulating snow on Sunday. What GFS shows certainly would be nice, but obviously we have a long way to go. 

[NEG NAO]

The OZ Euro  starts the precip during the day Friday (31st) and ends it just after midnight the (1st) -all liquid here - storm is not suppressed much obviously