Discussion-OBS Jan 31-Feb 2 rain, potential minor interior impact mixed wintry events, mainly Fri Jan 31, Sun afternoon-eve Feb 2. Failed 7 day lead time LI winter impact.

[Stormlover74]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Yep . Strong high up north. 

Too strong. We get nothing lol

[MJO812]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Too strong. We get nothing lol

At least the gfs gives us light snow 

[NEG NAO]

Canadian suppresses storm - actually this is a good signal this far out IMO 

Models: GDPS — Pivotal Weather

[winterwx21]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Too strong. We get nothing lol

The fact that the situation is trending colder obviously is good news though if we're rooting for snow. CMC has light snow missing us to the south. Not a big storm but maybe we have a shot at seeing a little accumulating snow. 

[Stormlover74]

Just now, winterwx21 said:

The fact that the situation is trending colder obviously is good news though if we're rooting for snow. CMC has light snow missing us to the south. Not a big storm but maybe we have a shot at seeing a little accumulating snow. 

I'd actually rather a big storm even if it's rain than another light snow event

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

The fact that the situation is trending colder obviously is good news though if we're rooting for snow. CMC has light snow missing us to the south. Not a big storm but maybe we have a shot at seeing a little accumulating snow. 

The Euro's and the ensembles should be interesting - but we are still over 5 days away

 

[winterwx21]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

I'd actually rather a big storm even if it's rain than another light snow event

I'm still rooting for snow since we're in the heart of winter, but it won't be too long before I start rooting for rainstorms again. 

[NEG NAO]

0Z Icon is way north - the reason being is the HP in Canada is way west still the HP is the controlling factor here

Models: ICON — Pivotal Weather

[MJO812]

Gefs is weak and further south than 18z.

[NEG NAO]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gefs is weak and further south than 18z.

Because the HP in southeast Canada is moving faster to the southeast then previous runs but still steady precip makes it into LI and Central NJ

Models: GEFS — Pivotal Weather

[NEG NAO]

Euro is north still as HP in Canada not moving southeast fast enough to block storm

Models: ECMWF — Pivotal Weather

But then the HP pushes southeast and the storm moves offshore and this event is over by early Saturday

Models: ECMWF — Pivotal Weather

Also Feb looks to start with normal temps and then the middle of the first week we are back to lows in single digits and teens

Models: ECMWF — Pivotal Weather

[wdrag]

Good morning all,

This what I'm using for planning. The 06z GFS rescued what I think is messy snow-ice event coming... I add these graphics and leave it all to you for debate.  Model variability continues. Nothing locked. 

 

Feb 1-2: UNCERTAINTY and no cancellation action yet, but you may want to develop a plan B. Suggest planning for delays PANJ northward Friday night-Saturday morning as at least some snow and ice is expected. Timing and amounts uncertain. This may end up being a Friday night-Saturday morning event, followed by another late Sunday. No strong consensus yet but think it best to plan. First higher probability risk is near sunrise Saturday. Maps of small amounts of ice potential attached for Saturday as well as example of new snow fall that covers most of our membership from NYS-MA I90 south to the MD border. 

I added sidebar notes to the attached graphics. 

 

 

 

 

[snowman19]

@Allsnow The EURO/EPS wants nothing to do with a snow event this weekend, even north and west of NYC

[North and West]

I'd actually rather a big storm even if it's rain than another light snow event

Agreed. Of course we want snow, but a good rain to both wash away some salt and refill reservoirs and aquifers would be very welcome.


.

[NEG NAO]

Agree with Walt - plus the GFS is showing some consistency and looks reasonable but the controlling factor is how the HP is positioned - timing of it moving into a favorable position and the strength - track and timing of LP  - this is a thread the needle deal IMO

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2025012706&fh=126

 

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

@Allsnow The EURO/EPS wants nothing to do with a snow event this weekend, even north and west of NYC

Same with the AI

 

we rain 

[wdrag]

This may end up being a Friday night-Saturday morning event, followed by another late Sunday. No strong consensus yet.  

There will are model corrections but I think it unlikely this is north trending.  First one probably starts as rain coast, mix inland high terrain... how it tapers Sat?  The colder one later Sunday seems destined to be our LI snow producer.  

Plenty of time to adjust. 

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Same with the AI

 

we rain 

Not yet until the other models jump on board. Pesky high up north. 

[NEG NAO]

6 minutes ago, wdrag said:

This may end up being a Friday night-Saturday morning event, followed by another late Sunday. No strong consensus yet.  

There will are model corrections but I think it unlikely this is north trending.  First one probably starts as rain coast, mix inland high terrain... how it tapers Sat?  The colder one later Sunday seems destined to be our LI snow producer.  

Plenty of time to adjust. 

any idea when the Euro's will correct south ?

[MJO812]

AI GFS at 0z is a rain event for much of the Northeast.

[Allsnow]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

AI GFS at 0z is a rain event for much of the Northeast.

06z Euro AI as well 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

06z Euro AI as well 

Icon also. Well north .

 

Gfs will most likely fold

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Icon also. Well north .

 

Gfs will most likely fold

Suppression is over 

[wdrag]

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

any idea when the Euro's will correct south ?

uh oh...   I laugh cause I dont know.

 

IF the GFS 06z hadn't gotten back to what I think is on track, I'd have been more benign this morning but I just dont think north is a correct call. If you go to tropical tidbits ensembles at 5H and check the confluence zone on the latest cycles which is 06z EPS and GEFS and 00z CMCE, the confluence zone in my view is near the PA/NYS border or south of that.  That indicates to me the ridge of high Pres is just north of that and the pcpn is south of the confluence.

Also of interest is the next short wave crossing the upper midwest 06z/2...  which induces WAA here later Sunday. 

Complicated and maybe the EF will be right and drive so much high pressure in here late first that nothing can happen.  I'll leave it at that for all who say rain only.  

I do note 3 consecutive 24 hour periods of qpf on ALL ensembles here... ending 12z/1,2,3.  Somewhere in there has to be an injection of colder air. My guess is by 12z Saturday with rain maybe Fri afternoon becoming mixed wintry during the night and ending as snow mid morning Sat, then refiring as snow/frzing drizzle Sunday. 

Complicated but I dont see this as one and done. 

Everyone knows my impression could be very wrong. At this point I wouldn't be briefing EM's etc that this is a rain only event south of I80 and LI. 

BOM continues snow acc LI by 00z/3 and that some of the OP modeling is trying for second qpf pulse here on the 2nd.  

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, wdrag said:

uh oh...   I laugh cause I dont know.

 

IF the GFS 06z hadn't gotten back to what I think is on track, I'd have been more benign this morning but I just dont think north is a correct call. If you go to tropical tidbits ensembles at 5H and check the confluence zone on the latest cycles which is 06z EPS and GEFS and 00z CMCE, the confluence zone in my view is near the PA/NYS border or south of that.  That indicates to me the ridge of high Pres is just north of that and the pcpn is south of the confluence.

Also of interest is the next short wave crossing the upper midwest 06z/2...  which induces WAA here later Sunday. 

Complicated and maybe the EF will be right and drive so much high pressure in here late first that nothing can happen.  I'll leave it at that for all who say rain only.  

I do note 3 consecutive 24 hour periods of qpf on ALL ensembles here... ending 12z/1,2,3.  Somewhere in there has to be an injection of colder air. My guess is by 12z Saturday with rain maybe Fri afternoon becoming mixed wintry during the night and ending as snow mid morning Sat, then refiring as snow/frzing drizzle Sunday. 

Complicated but I dont see this as one and done. 

Everyone knows my impression could be very wrong. At this point I wouldn't be briefing EM's etc that this is a rain only event south of I80 and LI. 

BOM continues snow acc LI by 00z/3 and that some of the OP modeling is trying for second qpf pulse here on the 2nd.  

Walt, latest trends seem to be for a dry Friday?

 

[Stormlover74]

Gfs is north. Has light rain/freezing rain Friday morning

[Allsnow]

12z gfs further north. 
 

Record dry January in trouble 

[NEG NAO]

6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Gfs is north. Has light rain/freezing rain Friday morning

But then the LP hits the block and is forced south with little dynamic support or moisture and then moves offshore on the GFS with little frozen here

Models: GFS — Pivotal Weather

[MJO812]

Nice rain event on Friday.  Wash the salt away.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Nice rain event on Friday.  Wash the salt away.

Meh make it wait an extra day, I hate rain on the last day of a historic month