Discussion-OBS Jan 31-Feb 2 rain, potential minor interior impact mixed wintry events, mainly Fri Jan 31, Sun afternoon-eve Feb 2. Failed 7 day lead time LI winter impact.

[LibertyBell]

18 hours ago, psv88 said:

It still snowed and stuck at the new house. A good deal of it melted overnight when temps spiked down there so by the time I drove by around 10:30 it was patchy coverage. It was crazy to see where the warm air stopped. Could look up the road and see full snow cover and look the other way and see bare ground. 

I wonder how much of it has to do with elevation?

[LibertyBell]

20 hours ago, wdrag said:

Summary assessment last night and the 3 day snowfall... maps of overnight qpf,  the snowfall last night and the 3 day total.  If interested click for clarity. You can see the max snowfall axis was displaced quite a bit further north than exampled on 1/26 start. I rate this as a C- ensemble performance not an F. Check the 1/26 guidance.  Not what I like to see but what it is/was and we didnt overpromise NYC as stated on 1/26.  Words matter as do pix.   The sudden acceleration of the whole complex event scenario  a day after initiating the thread was my largest surprise. 

That acceleration was a disappointing surprise, but at least that first system did not produce much rainfall so most of our low rainfall records were set.  It was still a surprise to see the speed up on such a short lead time.

 

[psv88]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I wonder how much of it has to do with elevation?

The new house has a higher elevation by 60 feet…it is only 1.5 miles southeast of my current place. This was a tight gradient

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, psv88 said:

The new house has a higher elevation by 60 feet…it is only 1.5 miles southeast of my current place. This was a tight gradient

that's absolutely amazing, I wonder how close it comes to my dream scenario, where you can see it snowing from your 2nd floor bedroom window but it changes to rain when you're on the ground floor.  If you have some tall trees there you could see snow cover at the tree top level but nothing outside of water dripping from the lower branches!