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Discussion-OBS Jan 31-Feb 2 rain, potential minor interior impact mixed wintry events, mainly Fri Jan 31, Sun afternoon-eve Feb 2. Failed 7 day lead time LI winter impact.


wdrag
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22 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

central park picked up a inch of snow no weather person predicted that..

Early yesterday ensembles had a half inch CP and I thought it was discussed here. When you're on the margins, you have to be a little more careful about predicting. 

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Summary assessment last night and the 3 day snowfall... maps of overnight qpf,  the snowfall last night and the 3 day total.  If interested click for clarity. You can see the max snowfall axis was displaced quite a bit further north than exampled on 1/26 start. I rate this as a C- ensemble performance not an F. Check the 1/26 guidance.  Not what I like to see but what it is/was and we didnt overpromise NYC as stated on 1/26.  Words matter as do pix.   The sudden acceleration of the whole complex event scenario  a day after initiating the thread was my largest surprise. 

Screen Shot 2025-02-03 at 9.31.12 AM.png

Screen Shot 2025-02-03 at 9.33.02 AM.png

Screen Shot 2025-02-03 at 9.35.06 AM.png

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Wild gradient on LI by me. Full snow cover and plows right off Jericho.
 

 1.5 miles to my south much less snow. The temps spiked to 35 after the snow ended for a time so a lot more melted. Only got to 33 by me. Never seen such a gradient before in NW Suffolk. 

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16 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Wild gradient on LI by me. Full snow cover and plows right off Jericho.
 

 1.5 miles to my south much less snow. The temps spiked to 35 after the snow ended for a time so a lot more melted. Only got to 33 by me. Never seen such a gradient before in NW Suffolk. 

You wouldn't have liked this one after the move.  Stuff happens.

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5 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

You wouldn't have liked this one after the move.  Stuff happens.

It still snowed and stuck at the new house. A good deal of it melted overnight when temps spiked down there so by the time I drove by around 10:30 it was patchy coverage. It was crazy to see where the warm air stopped. Could look up the road and see full snow cover and look the other way and see bare ground. 

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1 hour ago, psv88 said:

It still snowed and stuck at the new house. A good deal of it melted overnight when temps spiked down there so by the time I drove by around 10:30 it was patchy coverage. It was crazy to see where the warm air stopped. Could look up the road and see full snow cover and look the other way and see bare ground. 

That is pretty crazy. 

We got barely above freezing here (max 32.4) between 1:15 and 2:45 am, then it fell back below freezing and bottomed at 27 between 7 and 7:30am.  Uncharacteristically, the town didn't plow or salt here and some roads were treacherous/black ice for a while this morning.

There hasn't been much melting here yet, although the temperature is up to 43.  Just for a wee bit of exercise, I went and shoveled the driveway about 45 minutes ago.  Could have easily waited for it to melt this afternoon.

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1 hour ago, NorthShoreWx said:

That is pretty crazy. 

We got barely above freezing here (max 32.4) between 1:15 and 2:45 am, then it fell back below freezing and bottomed at 27 between 7 and 7:30am.  Uncharacteristically, the town didn't plow or salt here and some roads were treacherous/black ice for a while this morning.

There hasn't been much melting here yet, although the temperature is up to 43.  Just for a wee bit of exercise, I went and shoveled the driveway about 45 minutes ago.  Could have easily waited for it to melt this afternoon.

Temperature spike to 45.5 just before 1pm and has dropped back to 39 in the 45 minutes since.  Lots of melting since my previous post.

Not sure what is the reason for the temperature swings.

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1 minute ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Temperature spike to 45.5 just before 1pm and has dropped back to 39 in the 45 minutes since.  Lots of melting since my previous post.

Not sure what is the reason for the temperature swings.

49 here. It’s all gone 

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1 minute ago, psv88 said:

49 here. It’s all gone 

Back up to 41 here.  Ground about 50% bare and the other half is pretty skimpy.  A half dozen or so wunderground stations within a mile or two of here are all between 39 and 42, but I am seeing the high 40's just beyond.  Maybe the temps shoot up when most of the snow is done melting?

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1 hour ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Back up to 41 here.  Ground about 50% bare and the other half is pretty skimpy.  A half dozen or so wunderground stations within a mile or two of here are all between 39 and 42, but I am seeing the high 40's just beyond.  Maybe the temps shoot up when most of the snow is done melting?

Some snow left here in the shade, otherwise gone. 

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