Discussion-OBS Jan 31-Feb 2 rain, potential minor interior impact mixed wintry events, mainly Fri Jan 31, Sun afternoon-eve Feb 2. Failed 7 day lead time LI winter impact.

[ag3]

Just now, Kaner587 said:

I don’t think the freezing line budges much until the precip ends. The cold air seems to be hanging tough north of the LIE in particular 

Agree Kaner. Pleasant surprise.

[Allsnow]

Just now, Kaner587 said:

I don’t think the freezing line budges much until the precip ends. The cold air seems to be hanging tough north of the LIE in particular 

Hope all is well @Kaner587 and @ag3

 

great to see you both posting here 

[NorthShoreWx]

Up to 28.8/24 and snowing a little better plus radar is building nicely over the North shore.  Could be one of those North shore specials, but on the other hand the short range models have been aceing it here this winter, even when they seem strange immediately prior to the event.  In short, hope springs eternal.

Side note, it's a nice change of pace (after a more seasonable January than recent years) that every flake of snow that has fallen today is still lying unmelted in the street.

[Kaner587]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Hope all is well @Kaner587 and @ag3

 

great to see you both posting here 

It’s been a while.
 

finally look be getting a positive bust

[Allsnow]

Just now, NorthShoreWx said:

Up to 28.8/24 and snowing a little better plus radar is building nicely over the North shore.  Could be one of those North shore specials, but on the other hand the short range models have been aceing it here this winter, even when they seem strange immediately prior to the event.  In short, hope springs eternal.

Side note, it's a nice change of pace (after a more seasonable January than recent years) that every flake of snow that has fallen today is still lying unmelted in the street.

Just got cold at the correct time 

[jm1220]

Some decent flakes appearing now with the dippin dots. 

[Kaner587]

1 minute ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Up to 28.8/24 and snowing a little better plus radar is building nicely over the North shore.  Could be one of those North shore specials, but on the other hand the short range models have been aceing it here this winter, even when they seem strange immediately prior to the event.  In short, hope springs eternal.

Side note, it's a nice change of pace (after a more seasonable January than recent years) that every flake of snow that has fallen today is still lying unmelted in the street.

I took a trip to Starbucks at about 930-10am and it was still 19 degrees in Woodbury. Had a feeling at that time cold was undermodeled. I noticed around 1-2pm it warmed up a bit to low 30’s south of the LIE but by time I was back north of 25a it was 25-26. Further reinforced by suspicion from earlier. Each hour temp was lower by as many as several degrees, than forecast 

[ag3]

4 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Up to 28.8/24 and snowing a little better plus radar is building nicely over the North shore.  Could be one of those North shore specials, but on the other hand the short range models have been aceing it here this winter, even when they seem strange immediately prior to the event.  In short, hope springs eternal.

Side note, it's a nice change of pace (after a more seasonable January than recent years) that every flake of snow that has fallen today is still lying unmelted in the street.

Nice band currently over the boroughs. Perhaps 1”-2” is possible.

[Rjay]

36 with light snow 

[NorthShoreWx]

4 minutes ago, Kaner587 said:

I took a trip to Starbucks at about 930-10am and it was still 19 degrees in Woodbury. Had a feeling at that time cold was undermodeled. I noticed around 1-2pm it warmed up a bit to low 30’s south of the LIE but by time I was back north of 25a it was 25-26. Further reinforced by suspicion from earlier. Each hour temp was lower by as many as several degrees, than forecast 

Fingers crossed that we stay on the cold side of the the coastal front.  All of the short range models have it making its way into the sound, but not to the CT coast.  They wouldn't need to be off by more than a few miles to change our forecast significantly.

[winterwx21]

27 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This mini event has more precip than what the models had especially on the southern extent. 

Except the RGEM. That model has consistently showing an inch or so of snow for this area. Looks like RGEM for the win on this one. Nice to see it snowing out there with everything coated. 

[etudiant]

A dusting to maybe an half inch of very fine snow on the UES in Manhattan. Snow is continuing at a slow rate at 9.00PM..

[ag3]

HRRR has adjusted and keeps NYC and north shore of LI as snow for the remainder of this event.

[ag3]

Just now, etudiant said:

A dusting to maybe an half inch of very fine snow on the UES in Manhattan. Snow is continuing at a slow rate at 9.00PM..

Is it on pavement and roads?

[Kaner587]

3km nam now up to 1-2 for northern nyc and north shore 

[lee59]

Mixed precip here as temperature inches above freezing

[Allsnow]

7 minutes ago, ag3 said:

HRRR has adjusted and keeps NYC and north shore of LI as snow for the remainder of this event.

HRRR hasn’t been good this winter…

 

it’s been late to the party on the few events we have had 

[psv88]

Ripping for real now. LIE and northern state are snow covered. Still 29. Love to see it 

[Nibor]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

HRRR hasn’t been good this winter…

 

it’s been late to the party on the few events we have had 

I've never really liked the HRRR. It makes some pretty drastic changes in its hour to hour runs.

[psv88]

HRRR very nice for northern half of Suffolk. 1-2”

[MJO812]

Light snow here

[lee59]

Temperature up to 34 here

[the_other_guy]

26F in Westchester. All roads and of course grass covered.

 

Winter and Snow declared over on 1/29 by a fellow poster!

[WestBabylonWeather]

Congrats north shore. Rain here a few miles to the south with maybe a few flakes mixed in 

[psv88]

That band in eastern Nassau looks meaty. Heavy snow in there?

[jm1220]

5 minutes ago, psv88 said:

That band in eastern Nassau looks meaty. Heavy snow in there?

Snow picking up here. Coastal warm front not moving N much, looks to be around Hempstead Tpke still. 

[Yaz]

1” 25f Rockaway NJ

[psv88]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Snow picking up here. 

Looking at the highway cams looks like it’s heavy snow moving in

[lee59]

light rain here with a rising temperature,now 34.6

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Looking at the highway cams looks like it’s heavy snow moving in

Yep, definitely moderate now.