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Discussion-OBS Jan 31-Feb 2 rain, potential minor interior impact mixed wintry events, mainly Fri Jan 31, Sun afternoon-eve Feb 2. Failed 7 day lead time LI winter impact.

wdrag

By wdrag,
in New York City Metro

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donsutherland1
donsutherland1

Photo from this morning.

wdrag
wdrag

While most events are shaky on snowfall for LI due to thermal profiles, there should be a pool of subfreezing air covering the interior northeast during this event, available for making a messy winter

wdrag
wdrag

Suggest no one settle on any one solution or even ensembles.  There may be another two days of wobblings before we settle in.   The Friday rain is about 12-18 sooner than I anticipated at th

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wdrag

wdrag

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Am aware of this thread looking to be a disaster... nothing for LI.  I will adjust the headline late today after review of the daytime  ensembles. The precip event has sped up by almost 24 hours from the initial estimate in the thread... and tracks too far north throughout the 3 day period.  Still some uncertainty. Back a 6PM ish for a headline update. 

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
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  On 1/28/2025 at 12:04 PM, wdrag said:

Am aware of this thread looking to be a disaster... nothing for LI.  I will adjust the headline late today after review of the daytime  ensembles. The precip event has sped up by almost 24 hours from the initial estimate in the thread... and tracks too far north throughout the 3 day period.  Still some uncertainty. Back a 6PM ish for a headline update. 

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Walt, it's not just nothing for Long Island, it's nothing for the city either.

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

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  On 1/28/2025 at 1:33 PM, MJO812 said:

The pattern was very favorable for us. No one thought suppression was going to be an issue. Remember the famous north trends.  That didn't happen.

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I remember in late December people were worried about suppression in January.

In retrospect the December pattern was a hell of a lot better than the January pattern for us.

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jm1220

jm1220

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  On 1/28/2025 at 1:33 PM, MJO812 said:

The pattern was very favorable for us. No one thought suppression was going to be an issue. Remember the famous north trends.  That didn't happen.

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Forky and others said the Jan pattern might just be cold and dry. Big blocking NAO patterns often aren’t good for us, our opportunity is when the blocking breaks down. If there’s a huge block or confluence north of us, any storm will just run into a wall. The fast pattern also causes too much interference with shortwaves and prevents amplification. 

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Allsnow

Allsnow

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  On 1/28/2025 at 2:58 PM, jm1220 said:

Forky and others said the Jan pattern might just be cold and dry. Big blocking NAO patterns often aren’t good for us, our opportunity is when the blocking breaks down. If there’s a huge block or confluence north of us, any storm will just run into a wall. The fast pattern also causes too much interference with shortwaves and prevents amplification. 

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Didn’t they say we would get hit when the block breaks down? I feel like that rule of thumb doesn’t apply anymore 

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

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  On 1/28/2025 at 2:24 PM, LibertyBell said:

You want to see real snow, go to the Poconos.  Coastal areas aren't good for snow anymore.  Right now there are major white out conditions happening in the Poconos with a big snow squall warning.

 

If you want snow, you need to get away from sea level.

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until you get a few seasons in a row of above normal snowfall - go look at the record books - we go years in a row with below normal snowfall and the same with above normal.....

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

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  On 1/28/2025 at 3:46 PM, NEG NAO said:

until you get a few seasons in a row of above normal snowfall - go look at the record books - we go years in a row with below normal snowfall and the same with above normal.....

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It's very unsteady and not reliable.  I think most people here would prefer having a floor of around 20 inches (that is no season with less than 20 inches of snow.)

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

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  On 1/28/2025 at 3:12 PM, Allsnow said:

Didn’t they say we would get hit when the block breaks down? I feel like that rule of thumb doesn’t apply anymore 

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No and it didn't apply in 2009-10 either.  New England thought they'd have  a great March once the block broke down at the end of February.  But instead all they (and we) got was a powerful rainy noreaster.  These kinds of patterns go from one extreme to the other.

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Brian5671

Brian5671

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  On 1/28/2025 at 4:28 PM, LibertyBell said:

No and it didn't apply in 2009-10 either.  New England thought they'd have  a great March once the block broke down at the end of February.  But instead all they (and we) got was a powerful rainy noreaster.  These kinds of patterns go from one extreme to the other.

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The cold wasn't all that great that winter-just cold enough for the big blitz-but once past the 2/25 storm it was just puke polar stale cold

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STORMANLI

STORMANLI

Posted
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  On 1/28/2025 at 2:24 PM, LibertyBell said:

You want to see real snow, go to the Poconos.  Coastal areas aren't good for snow anymore.  Right now there are major white out conditions happening in the Poconos with a big snow squall warning.

 

If you want snow, you need to get away from sea level.

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Or in this unusual Winter, head for the Gulf Coast. Who would have thought?

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