Discussion-OBS Jan 31-Feb 2 rain, potential minor interior impact mixed wintry events, mainly Fri Jan 31, Sun afternoon-eve Feb 2. Failed 7 day lead time LI winter impact.

[wdrag]

While most events are shaky on snowfall for LI due to thermal profiles, there should be a pool of subfreezing air covering the interior northeast during this event, available for making a messy winter storm, even down into NYC (NOT a KU).  The remnants of this mornings CA 5H closed low will weaken as it heads eastward into the confluence zone over the mid and North Atlantic states this coming weekend. The cold boundary layer airmass that arrives Thursday the 30th after passage of an Alberta clipper off the Maine coast, should be available to interact with the Gulf moisture and lift generated moisture caused by the thickness overrunning ahead of the weakening upper low. Modeling is implying a secondary CFP Friday evening that will allow that BL cold in NYS-New England to be nearby. Precipitation type will be problematic due to the thermal profiles but the attached ensemble guidance suggests that this system is of trackable interest for our NYC subforum -both for travel into the interior where impact will be greater, and maybe witnessing some snow accumulation in NYC-though melting is anticipated on LI at times.  Can our NYC 24-25 winter snowfall increase an inch or 2" next weekend (corrected my prior CP snowfall error).  Ensembles should be self explanatory. I did add the EPS probability of >0.10 freezing rain

Headline change below at 730AM Wed 1/29 for failed 7 day lead time on wintry accums NYC-LI.

Discussion-OBS Jan 31-Feb 2 rain, potential minor interior impact mixed wintry events, mainly Fri Jan 31, Sun afternoon-eve Feb 2. Failed 7 day lead time LI winter impact. Events accelerated 18 hours and warmer-further north than modeling posted below in this thread indicated. Wrap up hat happened will post Monday Feb 3.  P5 shows the NAEFS speed change.  

 

[Stormlover74]

5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Should be a great storm north of 84

[NEG NAO]

14 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Should be a great storm north of 84

this comes down to the positioning and strength of the cold HP to the north - impossible to predict this far out

[Allsnow]

Pattern favors a north trend 

[MJO812]

Just now, Allsnow said:

Pattern favors a north trend 

Not with the tpv over eastern Canada. Ukie has also shifted south. 

[MJO812]

21 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Should be a great storm north of 84

We don't even know what areas will be getting what just yet. 

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Not with the tpv over eastern Canada. Ukie has also shifted south. 

Maps or it didn’t happen 

[Stormlover74]

20 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Maps or it didn’t happen 

Ukie's rain Friday and outta here by Saturday 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Ukie's rain Friday and outta here by Saturday 

It's a disorganized mess

[cleetussnow]

3 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Pattern favors a north trend 

Euro doesn’t. At all.  

[MJO812]

45 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Euro doesn’t. At all.  

Every model went south 

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Every model went south 

when does this thing start?

[Stormlover74]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

when does this thing start?

Rain Friday morning

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Rain Friday morning

then that record dry month won't be set because of the last day.....

what happened to that arctic blast that was supposed to be here for two days and keep any rain out of the area until Saturday?

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

then that record dry month won't be set because of the last day.....

what happened to that arctic blast that was supposed to be here for two days and keep any rain out of the area until Saturday?

It's after that 

[Allsnow]

Euro Ai is a good hit for the mass pike

 

 

[Stormlover74]

17 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

then that record dry month won't be set because of the last day.....

what happened to that arctic blast that was supposed to be here for two days and keep any rain out of the area until Saturday?

Gone..just looks average. And yeah we may get enough to not have the driest January on record

[LibertyBell]

14 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Gone..just looks average. And yeah we may get enough to not have the driest January on record

haha well that sucks, but at least we had the driest month of all time last October, can't get less than 0 rainfall lol.

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Euro Ai is a good hit for the mass pike

 

 

There's a chance that the TPV press causes a southward adjustment 

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

There's a chance that the TPV press causes a southward adjustment 

Southeast ridge won’t be denied this time 

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Euro Ai is a good hit for the mass pike

 

 

How awesome for them. 

[wdrag]

Looks messy... long duration periodic winter event that seems to begin late Friday and ends in our area Monday morning. Aapparently most of the snow acc for Li the second half of the storm. Ice continues showing up inland..albeit minor (under 0.15 FRAM).  

So on the se ridge asserting and sending his north, you'll know for sure if the EC and AI don't trend south by Tuesdays' cycles.  VERY early but I'm looking for an initial WAA burst Friday night-Saturday morning, maybe a break and then resurgence  Sat night -Sunday with the modeled too rapidly dissipated 5H low transiting PA/NJ.  Long ways to go and I be wrong in my interpretation, but for now a mess and LI probably less than 3" on the back side.   I kind of like the tamers 18z GFS/GEFS vs the heavier 00z-12z cycles. (more reasonable qpf). 

[WestBabylonWeather]

So cold air comes in second half? 

[Allsnow]

18z euro way north. All rain for SNE and nyc 

[Allsnow]

18z euro Ai way north 

 

congrats NH/Vt 

[MJO812]

3 hours ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

So cold air comes in second half? 

Right now yes. Euro is an outlier but can't discount it. Let's see what the 0z runs show.

[Stormlover74]

Cmc and gfs way south

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Cmc and gfs way south

Models: GFS — Pivotal Weather 

Because HP moving faster to the southeast blocking storm

[Stormlover74]

So far south in fact that the cmc is suppressed

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Cmc and gfs way south

Yep . Strong high up north.