Discussion-OBS Jan 31-Feb 2 rain, potential minor interior impact mixed wintry events, mainly Fri Jan 31, Sun afternoon-eve Feb 2. Failed 7 day lead time LI winter impact.

[NEG NAO]

The 0Z Euro shows the later weekend storm passing to our north with no precip here

[wdrag]

Am aware of this thread looking to be a disaster... nothing for LI.  I will adjust the headline late today after review of the daytime  ensembles. The precip event has sped up by almost 24 hours from the initial estimate in the thread... and tracks too far north throughout the 3 day period.  Still some uncertainty. Back a 6PM ish for a headline update. 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, wdrag said:

Am aware of this thread looking to be a disaster... nothing for LI.  I will adjust the headline late today after review of the daytime  ensembles. The precip event has sped up by almost 24 hours from the initial estimate in the thread... and tracks too far north throughout the 3 day period.  Still some uncertainty. Back a 6PM ish for a headline update. 

Walt, it's not just nothing for Long Island, it's nothing for the city either.

[MJO812]

Sunday wave is north on every model

[Allsnow]

16 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Sunday wave is north on every model

Shocking 

[snowman19]

18 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Shocking 

There’s nothing to stop the north trend. There’s no blocking, the NAO is going to be positive as hell at that point 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

There’s nothing to stop the north trend. There’s no blocking, the NAO is going to be positive as hell at that point 

To be honest, a negative NAO wasn't helping us at all either, it just made it cold and dry.  Why can't the NAO just stop at neutral?

 

[Allsnow]

7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

There’s nothing to stop the north trend. There’s no blocking, the NAO is going to be positive as hell at that point 

Buckle up 

[MJO812]

Just now, Allsnow said:

Buckle up 

We did but nothing happened for us. 

[Dan76]

Still  buckeled  in?

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Dan76 said:

Still  buckeled  in?

The pattern was very favorable for us. No one thought suppression was going to be an issue. Remember the famous north trends.  That didn't happen.

[Allsnow]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The pattern was very favorable for us. No one thought suppression was going to be an issue. Remember the famous north trends.  That didn't happen.

Where did all your buddies go that were calling for big snows? Brooklyn? Cool? 

[Stormlover74]

20 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Where did all your buddies go that were calling for big snows? Brooklyn? Cool? 

It's coming. Mid February 

[LibertyBell]

40 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The pattern was very favorable for us. No one thought suppression was going to be an issue. Remember the famous north trends.  That didn't happen.

I remember in late December people were worried about suppression in January.

In retrospect the December pattern was a hell of a lot better than the January pattern for us.

[MJO812]

38 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Where did all your buddies go that were calling for big snows? Brooklyn? Cool? 

Discord

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Discord

You want to see real snow, go to the Poconos.  Coastal areas aren't good for snow anymore.  Right now there are major white out conditions happening in the Poconos with a big snow squall warning.

 

If you want snow, you need to get away from sea level.

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

The pattern was very favorable for us. No one thought suppression was going to be an issue. Remember the famous north trends.  That didn't happen.

Forky and others said the Jan pattern might just be cold and dry. Big blocking NAO patterns often aren’t good for us, our opportunity is when the blocking breaks down. If there’s a huge block or confluence north of us, any storm will just run into a wall. The fast pattern also causes too much interference with shortwaves and prevents amplification. 

[Allsnow]

13 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Forky and others said the Jan pattern might just be cold and dry. Big blocking NAO patterns often aren’t good for us, our opportunity is when the blocking breaks down. If there’s a huge block or confluence north of us, any storm will just run into a wall. The fast pattern also causes too much interference with shortwaves and prevents amplification. 

Didn’t they say we would get hit when the block breaks down? I feel like that rule of thumb doesn’t apply anymore 

[Stormlover74]

Nam is a nice soaking for Friday. Rgem less so. More like .25" but still raining at the end

[MANDA]

13 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Nam is a nice soaking for Friday. Rgem less so. More like .25" but still raining at the end

Anything to get rid of this road salt will be welcome in my book.  Thinking .25" to .50" is a reasonable forecast for most at this point.

[NEG NAO]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

You want to see real snow, go to the Poconos.  Coastal areas aren't good for snow anymore.  Right now there are major white out conditions happening in the Poconos with a big snow squall warning.

 

If you want snow, you need to get away from sea level.

until you get a few seasons in a row of above normal snowfall - go look at the record books - we go years in a row with below normal snowfall and the same with above normal.....

[rgwp96]

At least all the salt all over the place will be washed away

[LibertyBell]

38 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

until you get a few seasons in a row of above normal snowfall - go look at the record books - we go years in a row with below normal snowfall and the same with above normal.....

It's very unsteady and not reliable.  I think most people here would prefer having a floor of around 20 inches (that is no season with less than 20 inches of snow.)

[LibertyBell]

16 minutes ago, rgwp96 said:

At least all the salt all over the place will be washed away

or blown away in this wind.

[LibertyBell]

52 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Anything to get rid of this road salt will be welcome in my book.  Thinking .25" to .50" is a reasonable forecast for most at this point.

Just would have liked it to wait one more day.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Didn’t they say we would get hit when the block breaks down? I feel like that rule of thumb doesn’t apply anymore 

No and it didn't apply in 2009-10 either.  New England thought they'd have  a great March once the block broke down at the end of February.  But instead all they (and we) got was a powerful rainy noreaster.  These kinds of patterns go from one extreme to the other.

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

No and it didn't apply in 2009-10 either.  New England thought they'd have  a great March once the block broke down at the end of February.  But instead all they (and we) got was a powerful rainy noreaster.  These kinds of patterns go from one extreme to the other.

The cold wasn't all that great that winter-just cold enough for the big blitz-but once past the 2/25 storm it was just puke polar stale cold

[STORMANLI]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

You want to see real snow, go to the Poconos.  Coastal areas aren't good for snow anymore.  Right now there are major white out conditions happening in the Poconos with a big snow squall warning.

 

If you want snow, you need to get away from sea level.

Or in this unusual Winter, head for the Gulf Coast. Who would have thought?

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, STORMANLI said:

Or in this unusual Winter, head for the Gulf Coast. Who would have thought?

Yes, you can go snowboarding one week and surfing the following week lol.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

The cold wasn't all that great that winter-just cold enough for the big blitz-but once past the 2/25 storm it was just puke polar stale cold

So much better than this winter though.