Carvers Gap Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 12z suite may not have big clown maps, but that is a pretty good look. I would recommend starting a flood thread. This is likely going to be a major event. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: @jaxjagman East Asia rule? Not sure,i always use the Koreas for us,Japan is basically the east coast and East China is basically west of us.But there is also other teleconnection that wont correlate 1:1.But the maps i show is a trough into Mongolia,which could be a -PNA and heights built up into East China which could possibly be a ridge into the Southern Plains and then you look at the EPS and its very similar.I'm just using these maps as a example +8 days 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 12z ensembles are incredibly cold from the 16th onward. I think we have a good chance of someone scoring around that timeframe...and about ten days from when it thundered to boot. I am noticing the storm track push further and further south as well. Those cutters may become Apps runners or inland runners with time. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1203 PM CST Sun Feb 9 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1200 PM CST Sun Feb 9 2025 - Scattered light rain showers through 9 PM tonight. - Very active weather pattern over the next week, with several chances for rain across Middle TN, but no winter or severe weather expected at this time. - Rises on area creeks and rivers will become possible by next weekend, with 5 to 7 inches of rain forecast through the next 7 days. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Monday Night) Issued at 1200 PM CST Sun Feb 9 2025 The persistent zonal flow aloft continues today, and this currently coincides with northeasterly surface winds across the Tennessee Valley thanks to high pressure to our north. This setup is favoring isentropic ascent across the region as a frontal surface aloft resides across the I-40 corridor. As such, our clouds and northeasterly flow are keeping temperatures on the cool side, and we have light rain showers emanating from the west. I`ve increased PoPs across Middle Tennessee through ~9 PM despite what will be very little accumulation. A few sleet pellets will be possible as well, but no impacts are expected. It looks to be another cold night tonight with lows in the 30s, after moisture exits to our east. We`re forecast to warm into the upper 40s to lower 50s tomorrow, with help of a little sunshine breaking through in the afternoon. We appear to remain dry tomorrow, but an elongated disturbance aloft will begin to stretch from the Southern Plains toward the Tennessee Valley tomorrow night into Tuesday morning. This system will lead to a widespread soaking of rain as significant moisture transport occurs aloft, overrunning a surface front just to our south. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1200 PM CST Sun Feb 9 2025 Rain chances will continue for beginning of the long-term, associated with the system in the area on Tuesday, described above. Flow aloft will become more southwesterly across the region as well. Thus, after a brief reprieve from rain Wednesday morning, a subsequent disturbance is forecast to move into the region Wednesday afternoon as the parade of storm systems across the eastern CONUS continues. Rain chances are quite high once again, and another soaking of rainfall is expected into early Thursday morning. Our latest storm total rainfall from Tue/Wed is generally 2-4", which is doable considering we aren`t expecting any stronger convection which would lead to higher rainfall rates. In fact, highest rainfall amounts are south of I-40 which would benefit ongoing drought in the region. Also, we still expect to stay above freezing throughout this period, so we are not forecasting any wintry precipitation. This appears to mainly impact our friends in KY. For the most part we`ll remain situated between winter weather to our north, and stormy weather to our south. Mid- to upper-level flow will remain quasi-zonal configuration toward the latter part of the period, after a shortwave departs to our east on Friday. By this weekend, medium-range guidance continues to suggest a notable disturbance to eject across the Southern Plains, approaching our region Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. This is currently depicted to contain a 100+ kt mid-level jet streak and substantial height falls which will contribute to cyclogenesis in the Tennessee Valley. All things considered, we`ll have another widespread soaking of rain, and there`s potential for thunderstorms as well. Given the parade of storms throughout the week, this system could tip the scales into some flooding issues across Middle Tennessee which we will continue to monitor and message. Specifics from there are still to be sorted out, including any stronger storm potential. At this time we`re not advertising any, but this will certainly be a more dynamic system. Stay tuned to the forecast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 On 2/7/2025 at 5:33 PM, GaWx said: Today’s for Feb 10-16 to compare to yesterday’s with darkest 5”++: Today’s Euro Weeklies for 2/10-16 has the largest area yet of 5”++ (its common to have largest anomalies in an ensemble mean when forecast lead time is shorter): 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 5 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: I would recommend starting a flood thread. This is likely going to be a major event. I'll go for it. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 The 12z suite has switched to full suppression after mid-month. In fact, the timeframe between Feb17-21 looks really good for wintry weather. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 I am also starting to see all global ensemble snow means bump up for Feb 15 onward. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 RGEM throwing out 3" an hour rates in parts of SW VA tomorrow morning: NAM 3k not too far off: GFS looks even better towards High Knob: 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: RGEM throwing out 3" an hour rates in parts of SW VA tomorrow morning: NAM 3k not too far off: GFS looks even better towards High Knob: The 19z HRRR is bringing in some mix(sleet) south of the TN line in NE TN. Been a slow progression southward today. Sneaky and pesky rain/sleet/snow line. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: The 12z suite has switched to full suppression after mid-month. In fact, the timeframe between Feb17-21 looks really good for wintry weather. MJO Ph 8 augmenting a +PNA. Blocking also appears to be getting situated in a better location as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 The 21z HRRR pulls the frozen precip line over the very northern edge of the Plateau early tomorrow morning. Sleet mainly. TRI...line held study w/ Sullivan getting some sleet yet again on that run. The HRRR definitely has more frozen precip than other models, but.....it can be pretty good over this area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 I wouldn't say models are honking for Feb16-21...but they are kind of trying to. The 18z GFS has a setup. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Feb 17th and 20th on the Euro are pretty frigid. The Real Feel for the Canadian around the 17th is below zero for a decent amount of folks north of 40. Here is the d10 real feel on the Euro(which also has the cold on the 17th). 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 We could see real feels which are 80 degrees colder than the end of last week. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Modeling is definitely sensing the phase 8 MJO as @Daniel Boonenoted. I am guessing the GFS is under doing the cold. The mechanism is there to delivery frigid temps into the region during the second half of February. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 18 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: The 21z HRRR pulls the frozen precip line over the very northern edge of the Plateau early tomorrow morning. Sleet mainly. TRI...line held study w/ Sullivan getting some sleet yet again on that run. The HRRR definitely has more frozen precip than other models, but.....it can be pretty good over this area. GFS showing several inches of Snow/sleet for here. 7 inches progged for Wise. 2 inch line down to Claiborne County on 18z Run. HRRR usually performs poorly here. Under does Snowfall Amounts here in Lee County 90% of the Time. Has a known warm bias from here down to Johns neck of the Woods. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: We could see real feels which are 80 degrees colder than the end of last week. Yeah, going to be absolutely brutal ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Wouldn't be surprised to see more Snow involved in the Equation late Week. Still will likely be flooding this week but, not all looks to be Rain now. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 The 12z and 18z Euro are showing some potential for upslop and even a weak lee side/inland slp (after a cutter) around the 17th. That is really cold air moving in behind that. The 18z only goes out to 144. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 3 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: Wouldn't be surprised to see more Snow involved in the Equation late Week. Still will likely be flooding this week but, not all looks to be Rain now. Confluence is right over this area for the last half of the month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Currently 43 and very light rain/ice pellets against a relative humidity of 48%. Another night on which I wish I could be just 100 miles north. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Load of sleet falling right now in Morgan County. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 21 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Load of sleet falling right now in Morgan County. Don't think Model's had any Frozen Precip projected for there. So, could be a warning for areas further North and East. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 It's 37 degrees here with the precip still South and West of me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Precip has arrived as snow and sleet mixed. Probably have a few minutes of mixed before going to rain. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Getting some light sleet here as well. Temp is 39 dp 24 which is producing the sleet from evaporative cooling. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Now actually full on sleet shower out there. Did not expect this, this far south. I wondered if it might with the dew points being so low, but figured I’d totally miss out on this one. Won’t be any accumulation but still kinda cool to get something out of it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Obviously with how this winter has gone, they can't be trusted, but the Euro and GFS just dumped on the western half of the forum area. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Some pretty insane runs last night with snow chances between the 16th and 21st. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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