Carvers Gap Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 hour ago, Daniel Boone said: Disaster if that were to happen. Picked up close to an inch here overnight. Ground is full after the 3" last week. What is crazy is that it seems that flooding preceding cold(at this time of year) is not terribly uncommon in my experience in NE TN. Hey, it thundered this morning IMBY. Ten day clock is counting. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 There is also a very strong -NAO signal on all ensembles after d10. That is likely the SSW having some impact. That is coupled with help from the Pacific. Could be some fireworks to end winter. We will see. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 44 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: The 12z Euro is pretty frigid late in that run. Even the GFS gets pretty cold as well. I think we are starting to see some convergence on when/if cold returns. I still think we see a transition from say Feb9-17th. Then, I think we see the MJO rotate into 8 around Feb 16th. I don't think there will be a lag...cold likely returns consistently around then. It might stall there???? Or it might loop quickly back around per the old BOMM from a few days ago. Models will often be too quick with cold returning. It is possible that we go cold/dry when that change occurs. So, I don't want to overhype... American modeling is in the Euro camp today regarding the MJO on CPC's plots. Yeah, the old warm and rain, cold and dry deal. That is a worry. Hopefully won't be the case and we keep an active STJ when the MJO goes into cold Phases. There's a chance of a throwback Monster if that Jet remains active and a decent Ridge pops out west along with strong blocking. Historically, late Feb/March are our favorable Time for Blockbuster Snowfalls. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 We gonna try wall-to-wall cold next winter? 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: We gonna try wall-to-wall cold next winter? Looking like a weak to mod Nino. Should be +PDO. Atlantic unknown at this juncture. All in all sounds encouraging. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 14 hours ago, GaWx said: Latest Euro Weeklies qpf for Feb 10-16: 3rd shade of green is 2-3 times normal (~2-4”). Hopefully there won’t be bad flooding. I could sure use some of that extra qpf down here though even here I’m just into shade 2 (would mean ~1.2” here). Here’s today’s Euro Weeklies for Feb 10-16 to compare yesterday’s to: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Todays rain around here was a big ole nada. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Plenty of thunder. Mountain rules are in play. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigbald Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 An immense amount of rain fell in east tn/swva tonight. With whats coming next week I fear major flood concerns similar to what has already occurred winter on the nolichucky. Really hope the rainfall totals are over done on the models. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 The LR seems much clearer today. It looks like a strong cold front will make its way into the region on either Feb16 or Feb17. The week prior will be a transitional period and very rainy. After the strong cold from on the 16th/17th there will likely be 3-4 cold shots of 2-4 days duration each time with warmups in between. Is it a “warmup and rain pattern” after mid month? Maybe, but details are likely poor at this range. The February analog package that I used for this year has been spot on. February is 13+ in terms of temps so far. This month is now almost guaranteed to be AN for temps. March looks chilly, at least the start of it does. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Both the ICON and CMC at 12z have a slp taking the low road around 132. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 If u want to see some pretty massive changes at high latitudes at 500, go look at all of the afternoon ensembles. This sets the stage for a pretty significant cold outbreak after mid-month. Flip city. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Starting to see sub zero real feels show up on modeling around Feb 17. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 The Euro Weeklies are throwing out some really good looks which at times include a -EPO and -NAO. The window looks like Feb 17th to around March 10th. I am seeing 10 degrees BN for departures. Pretty frigid look. Halftime is almost over, and what a glorious one it has been. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 23 hours ago, GaWx said: Here’s today’s Euro Weeklies for Feb 10-16 to compare yesterday’s to: Today’s for Feb 10-16 to compare to yesterday’s with darkest 5”++: 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Insane run by the 18z GFS....NAO is 5 sigmas negative? The ensembles at 12z are showing something similar. That HL blocking is under 200...this isn't way out there. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 This has been a steady trend for a couple of days. It could radically alter what we are seeing in even the medium range if real. Definitely some good signs starting about d8-9. Might be the most impressive look of the winter. Still a long ways out there, but well worth your time to look at. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Latest janetjanet outlook: Pretty cool page with a bunch of togglable functions on the experimental water page: https://water.noaa.gov/ Here's the page with the flood outlook products: https://www.weather.gov/owp/operations-national-fho-archive?d=2025-02-08 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 37 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Latest janetjanet outlook: Pretty cool page with a bunch of togglable functions on the experimental water page: https://water.noaa.gov/ Here's the page with the flood outlook products: https://www.weather.gov/owp/operations-national-fho-archive?d=2025-02-08 Bro…. sorry i haven’t checked in on you after the storms. You and your family ok? My FIL has been sick and that’s taken all our time. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Well, American modeling has stopped with the phase 6 stall which it held onto for a long time(weeks). It is now progressing at a similar pace as other modeling. Thus, we are now seeing rather drastic changes in LR modeling. Weeklies have flipped back cold. I think we are looking at a week or two of -10 departures from normal. Looking at the CPC d8-14 forecast, we can see BN temps and AN precip. For now, this looks like a warm-up and rain pattern w/ cold dry intervals....but I highly doubt any of the models are caught up. BTW, I suspect this makes a full rotation. It is possible this could loop back through 8 again which I would welcome, but a full rotation is more likely(but not certain). Looks like the old GEFS plots (not this one) will bust bigly. This begs to ask the question, "Do we even trust GFS modeling d10-15?" I think the Euro is probably a better model right now. To be clear, it literally stalled the MJO in 5-6 for the rest of winter at one point. Now, look at today's. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 FYI….. the last time Knoxville had a tornado in February I was at my parents house in Powell and watched it go over us. It came back down in Broad Acres Subdivision a 1/2 mile away and produced F3 damage. It was on the ground for 12 miles from Powell to just past Ft City. 32 days after that tornado hit Knoxville, The Blizzard of 93 happened. this is from the storms the other night….. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 2 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: FYI….. the last time Knoxville had a tornado in February I was at my parents house in Powell and watched it go over us. It came back down in Broad Acres Subdivision a 1/2 mile away and produced F3 damage. It was on the ground for 12 miles from Powell to just past Ft City. 32 days after that tornado hit Knoxville, The Blizzard of 93 happened. this is from the storms the other night….. Good share. There is definitely a loose correlation between severe weather and winter storms following. I remember the Powell tornado well. I had three friends at UT who played on the state team for Powell. We went over to see the damage afterwards. The coincidence this week was not lost on me. For me, eerily similar circumstances to the event in 93. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Good share. There is definitely a loose correlation between severe weather and winter storms following. I remember the Powell tornado well. I had three friends at UT who played on the state team for Powell. We went over to see the damage afterwards. The coincidence this week was not lost on me. For me, eerily similar circumstances to the event in 93. do you remember their names? What sport? I played football and baseball. Played basketball my freshman, sophomore years before it became too much for me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 2 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: do you remember their names? What sport? I played football and baseball. Played basketball my freshman, sophomore years before it became too much for me. Jason, Bill, and Paul. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: Well, American modeling has stopped with the phase 6 stall which it held onto for a long time(weeks). It is now progressing at a similar pace as other modeling. Thus, we are now seeing rather drastic changes in LR modeling. Weeklies have flipped back cold. I think we are looking at a week or two of -10 departures from normal. Looking at the CPC d8-14 forecast, we can see BN temps and AN precip. For now, this looks like a warm-up and rain pattern w/ cold dry intervals....but I highly doubt any of the models are caught up. BTW, I suspect this makes a full rotation. It is possible this could loop back through 8 again which I would welcome, but a full rotation is more likely(but not certain). Looks like the old GEFS plots (not this one) will bust bigly. This begs to ask the question, "Do we even trust GFS modeling d10-15?" I think the Euro is probably a better model right now. To be clear, it literally stalled the MJO in 5-6 for the rest of winter at one point. Now, look at today's. Gonna stick with the CFS,its done well than other models the last couple cycles of the MJO,its once again seeing the MJO get enhanced into the NH+Africa,i wouldnt be surprised to see the IO signal get stronger in the upcoming days 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 JMO,but the Euro since fall when the MJO gets into the NH the Euro wants to kill the signal and bring back into the COD.It seems to me the Euro is having issues with Kelvin and Rossby waves into the NH into the IO,The MJO shouldnt be getting hung up like the Euro shows, it seems to have a bias of doing this as of late 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 2 hours ago, PowellVolz said: You and your family ok? We're good man! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 16th - 17th looks like it has some potential to be one of the rare "shift south" storms with the massive -AO and Greenland block. Some small hits on the ensembles in a "wave riding a front" just in time situation for parts of TN for now. Probably not worth digging much deeper for now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 @jaxjagman East Asia rule? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 WPC 7 day rainfall forecast (live image link subject to change): That's a large area of 7"+ and a huge area of 5"+. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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