Winter 2024/2025 February Thread

[Carvers Gap]

Look at the move that ensembles have made since 18z yesterday.  Pretty impressive trend over four runs.  I think we are looking at very cold temps just after this FWIW.

 

[Carvers Gap]

I think a lot of this is just going to come down to timing.  There are some VERY cold highs lurking during the aforementioned timeframes.  Again, with things flipping, I highly doubt this is nailed down ten days out.  

[Carvers Gap]

If you want to draw up a February pattern which delivers, it looks like this...The PDO is kicking the trough out of the West IMHO.

 

 

[Carvers Gap]

Gimme some of that.

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

The thing is the PDO is not impeding things right now.  I am starting to thing the PDO can trump bad climatology, and has been for a long time(when it positive).  The new CANSIPS has warm-water along the eastern Pac Coast to start next winter.  I am thinking my next season's forecast is gonna be pretty bullish.  

Agree 100% ! That's the Point I brought up to another Met in another Forum regarding why I thought February wouldn't be Mild wall to wall. The PDO is no longer Negative. 

   The area along the east Pac Coast is a big influence imo in the -EPO and PNA of course.

[Carvers Gap]

3 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Agree 100% ! That's the Point I brought up to another Met in another Forum regarding why I thought February wouldn't be Mild wall to wall. The PDO is no longer Negative. 

   The area along the east Pac Coast is a big influence imo in the -EPO and PNA of course.

With ensembles potentially flipping mid-month, something is afoot.  Most analogs had February warm, but March cold.  That tells me that maybe not all of Feb was warm.  All we can ask for at this range is an STJ on steroids and BN temps.  The MJO looks ripe.  High latitude blocking signatures are off the charts.

[Daniel Boone]

26 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

With ensembles potentially flipping mid-month, something is afoot.  Most analogs had February warm, but March cold.  That tells me that maybe not all of Feb was warm.  All we can ask for at this range is an STJ on steroids and BN temps.  The MJO looks ripe.  High latitude blocking signatures are off the charts.

The sudden change in the PAC SST's I think is the main Culprit. I wondee if any of the Analog Year's had that to happen.?.

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, Daniel Boone said:

The sudden change in the PAC SST's I think is the main Culprit. I wondee if any of the Analog Year's had that to happen.?.

IDK.  I will add that the Euro Weeklies ext hav flipped at 500 to a much colder pattern.  BIG difference from the past several weeks of runs.  And that set of weeklies wasn't derived from the 12z run which was colder.

[John1122]

GFS came back south vs 18z. Canadian is a big hitter further south than the GFS. The 40 corridor battle zone effect seems to always be a thing. 

[John1122]

Rd 1 on the Euro. We'll see if there's a round 2. There was on the GFS. 

 

[Carvers Gap]

The 6z AIFS has the winter storm.  This is the good stuff below.  By mid February, the Euro has the MJO in phase 8.  The EURO MJO plot has been kicking butt and taking names of late.  

[PowellVolz]

https://twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1886479881321767104?s=46&t=LVg8BRWCh1zZb6F_t95EVg

[PowellVolz]

Just now, PowellVolz said:

https://twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1886479881321767104?s=46&t=LVg8BRWCh1zZb6F_t95EVg

I still can’t get links right. 

[Carvers Gap]

13 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

https://twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1886479881321767104?s=46&t=LVg8BRWCh1zZb6F_t95EVg

What is crazy is that before the MJO really takes hold in the colder phases.  I suspect those are just the opening salvos.

[John1122]

The Euro missed a little north that run, but I was honestly worried it was going to be too suppressed. The AI was pretty suppressed each run so far. The Euro has additional waves of winter weather loaded. Hopefully we can get round one in the chamber and actually have it work out for us, it will affect the future potential if there's a good snowpack.

 

 

 

[John1122]

The OP was worse, the EPS was better in terms of snowfall potential across the forum area. 

[fountainguy97]

BIG CAD signature on most models around the 210 timeframe. I don't think Eastern areas like these setups at all. Warm straight up the gut of the valley.

[Wurbus]

20 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

BIG CAD signature on most models around the 210 timeframe. I don't think Eastern areas like these setups at all. Warm straight up the gut of the valley.

Euro AI has it as well. Warm nose straight up the Eastern valley while everyone around us looks to be snowing.

[Carvers Gap]

The Euro Weeklies are cold.  The control is frigid.  Control buries E TN. 

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z Euro Ensemble snow mean isn’t too shabby.  It is usually slow to get on board.

[John1122]

12z AI was an absolute nuke for some of us. Heavy rain to heavy wet snow. 

 

[Knoxtron]

Apologies for the overload gents. I disregard the GFS for reasons

 

 

EURO Ensembles - 240 Hrs 

 

 

\

 

GFS Ensembles - 240 Hrs 

EURO Ensembles - 360 Hrs 

 

GFS Ensembles - 384 Hrs 

 

Euro 360 - 90th Percentile

Euro 360 - 10th Percentile

GFS 354hr- 90th Percentile

GFS 354hr- 10th Percentile

 

[John1122]

18z AI was a shift south, 10+ 40 and south. 8-10 north of 40, 6-8 around the Kentucky/VA border areas. 

Colder and more suppressed continues on it. Direct opposite of the GFS amped and warmer outcome. 

[jaxjagman]

National Weather Service Nashville TN
820 PM CST Mon Feb 3 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 813 PM CST Mon Feb 3 2025

 - Near record warmth today.

 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday.

 - More showers this weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 813 PM CST Mon Feb 3 2025

Nashville`s high temperature reached 74 degrees this afternoon --
just 1 degree shy of tying the record high for this date. Tomorrow
won`t be quite as warm as today, but will still be warm for early
February. We expect a surface boundary to slip through the mid
state later tonight and early Tuesday. We don`t expect any showers
with the fropa, but there will be some additional cloudiness
along with cooler temperatures. In the meantime, the evening
sounding from OHX shows a dry atmosphere in place, and the
moisture coming in with tonight`s front won`t be enough to give us
measurable precipitation. So we`ll have to wait until Wednesday
for the next appreciable chance for rain.

[John1122]

Not much good on the overnight models. GFS was an insult to injury run. We miss being too far south then we miss by being too far north. 

[Carvers Gap]

We will see where modeling goes today, but almost all of the overnight modeling has shifted the rain/snow line well north of the area.  It would take a major shift for that to come back south, and I think that is unlikely.  I think our best chances are between Feb20-March10.  Feb10-20 continues to look like a transition from much AN temps to seasonal/below.  Yesterday was crazy warm.  I actually got out and cleaned up the yard.  Temps were around 70.  It is looking more and more(like many winters which had severe cold) that the weather pattern has snapped back warm.  The SER will fight winter the rest of the way.  We are close to a standing wave over the SE.

[John1122]

The ICON and GFS are back on board with a snow event. The GFS later than the ICON. It did shift south overall.

[Carvers Gap]

I take full credit for models shifting MAJORLY south at 12z.  LOL.  

[John1122]

The Canadian is similar to the GFS, second wave with a nice snow event. Not quite as heavy as the GFS. Lots of possibilities still on the table, rain is probably the most likely solution but hopefully the snowy solutions work out for us.

[BNAwx]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

I take full credit for models shifting MAJORLY south at 12z.  LOL.  

Reverse psychology.  World every time!