John1122 Posted Sunday at 12:34 AM Share Posted Sunday at 12:34 AM The 18z GFS is ridiculous for areas just north of the Ohio River. 3-4 feet of snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted Sunday at 02:35 AM Share Posted Sunday at 02:35 AM 1 hour ago, John1122 said: The 18z GFS is ridiculous for areas just north of the Ohio River. 3-4 feet of snow. Definitely gotta bring at least half that South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Sunday at 03:26 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:26 AM 18z AIFS is decent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Sunday at 05:05 AM Share Posted Sunday at 05:05 AM Severe winter storm for a lot of the forum area on this GFS run. Epic freezing rain in my area. Heavy snow western areas and Kentucky. Insane with 2.5+ inches of freezing rain Plateau, SE Kentucky and SW Virginia. 2 feet of snow in Eastern Kentucky. The model maxes out at 2.5 inches of freezing rain but it appears that 3+ qpf falls. It's inside 10 days when it starts now. The boundary stalls and floods, then creeps south and give the incredible ice totals. Then it loads up and does it again. 8-12 inches of snow in Western areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Sunday at 05:24 AM Share Posted Sunday at 05:24 AM The GFS throws 8-10 inches of QPF over the area and in some places, nearly half of that is frozen of some form or another. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Sunday at 07:16 AM Share Posted Sunday at 07:16 AM The Euro is beautiful. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Sunday at 07:25 AM Share Posted Sunday at 07:25 AM Ends as freezing rain. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Sunday at 12:52 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:52 PM Ensembles have cooled off this morning around mid-month, if not earlier. Like last time, the deterministic runs caught it before the ensembles locked in. Then....the ensembles held it while the deterministic runs flipped back and forth. John has the 0z suite covered above. If that was a 12z suite, there would be 2-3 pages of posts. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted Sunday at 12:54 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:54 PM 7 hours ago, John1122 said: Severe winter storm for a lot of the forum area on this GFS run. Epic freezing rain in my area. Heavy snow western areas and Kentucky. Insane with 2.5+ inches of freezing rain Plateau, SE Kentucky and SW Virginia. 2 feet of snow in Eastern Kentucky. The model maxes out at 2.5 inches of freezing rain but it appears that 3+ qpf falls. It's inside 10 days when it starts now. The boundary stalls and floods, then creeps south and give the incredible ice totals. Then it loads up and does it again. 8-12 inches of snow in Western areas. That was an epic run, lol. Backed off at 6z, but still has the same players. Interestingly it seems to have started to back the progression of the AIFS from 24 hours ago and now 0z, if not the details: Front slides in around this Wed. Pushes through over the weekend after a few impulses ride it then this: 24 hour qpf panels: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted Sunday at 12:57 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:57 PM Here are the 0z EPS and 6z GEFS members: GEFS: EPS: 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted Sunday at 01:10 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:10 PM After this week, alot of people, myself included, will have a real case of Spring fever! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted Sunday at 02:00 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:00 PM 8 hours ago, John1122 said: Severe winter storm for a lot of the forum area on this GFS run. Epic freezing rain in my area. Heavy snow western areas and Kentucky. Insane with 2.5+ inches of freezing rain Plateau, SE Kentucky and SW Virginia. 2 feet of snow in Eastern Kentucky. The model maxes out at 2.5 inches of freezing rain but it appears that 3+ qpf falls. It's inside 10 days when it starts now. The boundary stalls and floods, then creeps south and give the incredible ice totals. Then it loads up and does it again. 8-12 inches of snow in Western areas. That freezing rain would be off the charts, glad to see that it was not as bad on the latest run but that would be catastrophic! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted Sunday at 02:57 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:57 PM I will reiterate what John said a few days ago. The February Firehose is getting turned on. Will it be wet, white, or frozen? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted Sunday at 03:16 PM Share Posted Sunday at 03:16 PM 18 minutes ago, 1234snow said: I will reiterate what John said a few days ago. The February Firehose is getting turned on. Will it be wet, white, or frozen? Or (a wintry mix of) all of the above. Usually that selection on a multiple choice test is the correct one. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Sunday at 04:25 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:25 PM The models are looking second half of February 2015ish right now. But the epic cold is looming to our NW and doesn't quite get all the way here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Sunday at 04:38 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:38 PM Epic GFS run inbound for the parts of the forum, especially 40 and n. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Sunday at 04:39 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:39 PM Not sure what it is about Valentine's Day, but +/- 2 days on either side of it has many many many historic winter storms. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Sunday at 04:45 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:45 PM That's an all-time Winter Storm for Kentucky and a good portion of Tennessee. 14-24 inches for the Northern half of the forum west of the Plateau. I only manage 11 inches before 1.5 inches of freezing rain falls on top of it. (Round 1) 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Sunday at 05:02 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:02 PM The southern edge "lighter" snow totals will also have some freezing rain/sleet. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Sunday at 05:12 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:12 PM Boundary has been trending south on modeling. Reminds me a lot of the "no way it is gonna snow in Tallahassee" storm where it just kept sagging further and further south. Good trends. The CMC looked loaded for bear at the end of its run. That cold means business. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Sunday at 05:19 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:19 PM @Daniel Boone, that is a 95-96 redux. Nice storm, big warm-up, and another storm after the first 1/3 of Feb. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Sunday at 05:23 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:23 PM This is one of these patterns where if we don't hit on the first, there are like 2-3 after it. The GFS ended its run w/ another big storm incoming. Reminds me of the later December look on modeling. Maybe shorter wavelengths in Feb could help. If TRI can hit on one of these, we could end up way above "new" climatology for snow. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted Sunday at 05:23 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:23 PM 10 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Boundary has been trending south on modeling. Reminds me a lot of the "no way it is gonna snow in Tallahassee" storm where it just kept sagging further and further south. Good trends. The CMC looked loaded for bear at the end of its run. That cold means business. Seems like it but it doesnt look like it has the same "push" as the cold did earlier in the season. Either way that was a screensaver run of the GFS and it looked like it had another storm incoming at the end of the run. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted Sunday at 05:25 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:25 PM 58 minutes ago, John1122 said: The models are looking second half of February 2015ish right now. But the epic cold is looming to our NW and doesn't quite get all the way here. That is so uncanny, I remember that February was planning a blow out party for my mothers 75th birthday and was concerned about travel for everyone; now I am planning her 85th and doing the same thing! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Sunday at 05:26 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:26 PM Just now, matt9697 said: Seems like it but it doesnt look like it has the same "push" as the cold did earlier in the season. Either way that was a screensaver run of the GFS and it looked like it had another storm incoming at the end of the run. We don't want that push. We want a west-to-east confluence over our area w/ the STJ just ripping. The GFS is very cold at the end of its run. One cutter, and we could be well below zero. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Sunday at 05:27 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:27 PM 2 hours ago, 1234snow said: I will reiterate what John said a few days ago. The February Firehose is getting turned on. Will it be wet, white, or frozen? Yeah, man. With bitter cold in the Plains and the STJ on flamethrower mode, somebody is likely gonna get hammered east of the MS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted Sunday at 05:27 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:27 PM Just now, Carvers Gap said: We don't want that push. We want a west-to-east confluence over our area w/ the STJ just ripping. The GFS is very cold at the end of its run. One cutter, and we could be well below zero. Exactly, that is what concerns me, that boundary is just about in the right place for the forum area; realistically, this is one solution in what will be many, many more over the next 10 days but hoping we see this same solution on Feb 11~ give or take! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted Sunday at 05:50 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:50 PM 27 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: @Daniel Boone, that is a 95-96 redux. Nice storm, big warm-up, and another storm after the first 1/3 of Feb. Yes, and the Nina warministas are scratching their Head's trying to figure ot out. The +QBO and Lanina has them all ( CPC included) sold out to mild and very little STJ Action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Sunday at 05:56 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:56 PM 11 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: Yes, and the Nina warministas are scratching their Head's trying to figure ot out. The +QBO and Lanina has them all ( CPC included) sold out to mild and very little STJ Action. The thing is the PDO is not impeding things right now. I am starting to thing the PDO can trump bad climatology, and has been for a long time(when it positive). The new CANSIPS has warm-water along the eastern Pac Coast to start next winter. I am thinking my next season's forecast is gonna be pretty bullish. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Sunday at 06:09 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:09 PM 12z Euro is a southern KY slider.....I think anyone north of I-40 needs to keep an eye on this. This winter it seems the verified boundary has been south of modeling. Ensembles have flipped cold - big move. I doubt modeling is done adjusting. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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