Winter 2024/2025 February Thread

[John1122]

1 hour ago, Daniel Boone said:

Hopefully we get lucky and get something akin to Feb. 12-13 1985. Heavy Rain to Blizzard . I'd like to know what phase the MJO was then. I'd bet late 7 or early 8. 

      If anyone has archive Data from then post it. I'll see what I can come up with. 

It was in phase 3 when that storm hit. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

12z. AIFS, one potential out of many:

 

 

[*Flash*]

Bam Wx posted an update vid today validating much of what Carver has been saying in recent days. I learned while MJO Phase 4 and 6 are crapshoots for the TN Valley, sometimes the OH Valley can squeeze out a surprise in Phase 5. Not as blowtorch-y in that phase. We'll see what can happen as we rotate through. Still optimistic for late February/early March. 

[Carvers Gap]

And suddenly, the 12z GFS discovers the MJO is not permanently stuck in phase 6.  Suppressed pattern by decent cold.  I feel like I have seen this movie before.

[BNAwx]

8 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

And suddenly, the 12z GFS discovers the MJO is not permanently stuck in phase 6.  Suppressed pattern by decent cold.  I feel like I have seen this movie before.

That was a pretty big shift taken by models overnight…especially the GFS.  I still think we’re tracking again by Valentines Day give or take a few days.  At least I hope we are…

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z Euro has made the same shift.  That is a pretty cold look after d9.  Pretty big departures from normal.