Winter 2024/2025 February Thread

[jaxjagman]

Be totally shocked if we get anywhere near 80 through mid month,it should be a wet pattern into TN

[Daniel Boone]

May be back to the old Flooduary deal.

[jaxjagman]

7 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I think the sun matters a lot.  In fact, it might the driver of Earth's weather over millennia. I just don't think we have a lot of research about how it impacts weather.  It might be worth its own thread.  I could write several posts on the topic.  Briefly, I would say that increased solar activity tends to put a ridge over the eastern US.

 

Yeah but where has it been this year,i agree with you more study

[jaxjagman]

7 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

May be back to the old Flooduary deal.

Good for the east,we've at least gotten moisture here recently

 

South Drought Summary

Temperatures were cooler than normal for the region this week with most areas 5-10 degrees below normal. It was mostly a dry week throughout the region with only areas of southern Texas recording above-normal precipitation. Some areas are pushing 60 or more days without any significant precipitation in portions of Oklahoma and Texas, but as it is climatologically the driest time of the year for some of these areas, drought degradation has been slow. Changes this week included an expansion of abnormally dry conditions over extreme northwest Arkansas and central Texas. Moderate drought also expanded over portions of central Texas due to reports of crop losses due to lack of soil moisture in the region. Extreme drought expanded along the Big Bend of Texas where hydrological indicators are supporting the expansion. Some improvements to the severe and extreme drought were made in middle Tennessee, but abnormally dry conditions were expanded in the southwest portion of the state.

[matt9697]

One of the local mets just posted that this is the only time since 1977 that Nashville has recorded all the morning lows thus far in January at or below 35 and only the fourth time in Nashville weather records which date back to 1875; pretty remarkable. 

[Carvers Gap]

Overnight and early morning ensembles depict the GEPS/EPS vs the GEFS after Feb7th.  The first two ensembles take us below normal yet again.  The second gets there, but only marginally.  Worlds apart at 500.  Their MJO plots are also worlds apart.

[jaxjagman]

19 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Overnight and early morning ensembles depict the GEPS/EPS vs the GEFS after Feb7th.  The first two ensembles take us below normal yet again.  The second gets there, but only marginally.  Worlds apart at 500.  Their MJO plots are also worlds apart.

Looks severe into the lower MV into the Mid South possibly into the first wk of Feb possibly.If the MJO gets hung out into the WP like some models seem to be hinting at we might have to find the flooding thread buried somewhere

[Daniel Boone]

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Overnight and early morning ensembles depict the GEPS/EPS vs the GEFS after Feb7th.  The first two ensembles take us below normal yet again.  The second gets there, but only marginally.  Worlds apart at 500.  Their MJO plots are also worlds apart.

The worrisome thing if you want more wintey weather soon is, as we know, the Euro MJO Forecasts have faltered in wanting to project it going into the COD before warm P progression. MJO is not only progressing into warm phases but, at high Amplitude. So, hope is low for the GEPS and EPS being right.

As far as the other's hanging it up in warm Phases, that seems to be a bias of them so, nothing concrete . However, the Nina may favor that occuring unfortunately. 

The bright side is the Alaskan and over the top ridging showing up. This may help mitigate a warm phase MJO, particularly if strong . A - NAO in conjunction would possibly yield some big Snow opportunities even with an unfavorable MJO especially western and northern Areas of the Forum. 

[jaxjagman]

1 hour ago, Daniel Boone said:

The worrisome thing if you want more wintey weather soon is, as we know, the Euro MJO Forecasts have faltered in wanting to project it going into the COD before warm P progression. MJO is not only progressing into warm phases but, at high Amplitude. So, hope is low for the GEPS and EPS being right.

As far as the other's hanging it up in warm Phases, that seems to be a bias of them so, nothing concrete . However, the Nina may favor that occuring unfortunately. 

The bright side is the Alaskan and over the top ridging showing up. This may help mitigate a warm phase MJO, particularly if strong . A - NAO in conjunction would possibly yield some big Snow opportunities even with an unfavorable MJO especially western and northern Areas of the Forum. 

I'm with you and Carver,until the MJO gets out of the IO we could see something different,but right now every model shows about the same thing.I think we started to see the pattern change around the 15th of this month,now for the first time the AAM is showing its gonna stay low,we had our winter storm recently with  -NAO and its been that way for the most part all winter now its positive,no signs its gonna change anytime soon.For the first time this winter it seems to be coupled with NINA and not so as it has been

[Daniel Boone]

35 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

I'm with you and Carver,until the MJO gets out of the IO we could see something different,but right now every model shows about the same thing.I think we started to see the pattern change around the 15th of this month,now for the first time the AAM is showing its gonna stay low,we had our winter storm recently with  -NAO and its been that way for the most part all winter now its positive,no signs its gonna change anytime soon.For the first time this winter it seems to be coupled with NINA and not so as it has been

Yeah, agree NAO going negative again is not looking likely at all. Best we can hope for is the MJO somehow manages to make it on through the warm phases and into cold. That Nina coupling will probably make it tough.

     Trying to keep hope alive but, gotta be honest .

[Holston_River_Rambler]

2-4" qpf looking likely over the next two weeks according to ensemble spreads over the TN Valley, with some OP runs throwing out high numbers wherever the firehose sets up. 

 

 

[John1122]

Hopefully the EPS is correct in how it's handling the Pacific. It's our path back to winter after the first 7-10 days of February are warm and wet. 

[Carvers Gap]

The 18z GFS is threatening w Tenn w/ an overrunning ice storm.  Overall, no big changes to yesterday's ideas.  Been doing the swim meet thing this weekend, guys.  See you Monday!

[matt9697]

Looks like the southern stream is getting more active in the long term, maybe we can start replenishing the ground water without having flooding! 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

0z Euro shows a possible way to score at the end of its run. Successive waves push the boundary further south. Something we've been talking about as well as seen before when the Pac is less than favorable. 

 

 

I don't really even know what the 6z GFS was on. Looking at the precip panels I thought it must have been trying to build a big NAO, since systems tried to cut and got shunted SE:

 

 

 

There's sort of a consistent 50/50, but most of the big blocking is in the PAC

 

Further afield, the Indian Ocean is lit up. In fact everything from 3-6 in the RMM plots look healthy and I suspect that's why the RMM plots are killing the signal into the COD. Having so much in each section kind of balances everything out:

Might be good if that strong of a signal with convection on both sides of the equator can make it around for another pass into 8-1. I still think it is at least 3 weeks before what is no south of Sri Lanka makes it anywhere close to being favorable for us. 

 

Up north, a lil split, a lil warming on the Euro:

 

GFS has more warming but nothing like the Euro's split above. 

The old yin - yang pattern:

Not so much reflected in height anomalies:

Seems to have some connection to the blocking over the Aleutians:

 

 

Waaaayyyy out there, but something to watch. Sometimes in La Ninas lately we've seen MC convection enhance Central Pac blocking and help with a strat split/ warming. If we could get one around Feb 20 or so it might not screw us over too much, especially with a N hemisphere base state this winter that leans cold over N America. 

Here's another visualization of the GFS temp anomalies above, paired with ye olden 200 mb divergent winds:

 

200 mb divergent winds show where there is upper level divergence and thus lift/ t-storms associated with the MJO. In fact and TBH, I don't really know what a CHI anomaly is, I just call the right hand chart above the MJO forecast chart. 

 

While I'm trying to wake up let's see if we have any mountain torques too, cause why not. GFS tries to drop a Siberian high down into East China towards the end of its run, but ehhh that's about it. 

 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

9 minutes ago, matt9697 said:

Looks like the southern stream is getting more active in the long term, maybe we can start replenishing the ground water without having flooding! 

Overnight ensembles still look good for 2-4" over the TN Valley with less in extreme NE TN and more towards N. Mississippi. 2-4 is probably a good range for 15 days or so for drought relief and no flooding. 

[Daniel Boone]

23 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

0z Euro shows a possible way to score at the end of its run. Successive waves push the boundary further south. Something we've been talking about as well as seen before when the Pac is less than favorable. 

 

 

I don't really even know what the 6z GFS was on. Looking at the precip panels I thought it must have been trying to build a big NAO, since systems tried to cut and got shunted SE:

 

 

 

There's sort of a consistent 50/50, but most of the big blocking is in the PAC

 

Further afield, the Indian Ocean is lit up. In fact everything from 3-6 in the RMM plots look healthy and I suspect that's why the RMM plots are killing the signal into the COD. Having so much in each section kind of balances everything out:

Might be good if that strong of a signal with convection on both sides of the equator can make it around for another pass into 8-1. I still think it is at least 3 weeks before what is no south of Sri Lanka makes it anywhere close to being favorable for us. 

 

Up north, a lil split, a lil warming on the Euro:

 

GFS has more warming but nothing like the Euro's split above. 

The old yin - yang pattern:

Not so much reflected in height anomalies:

Seems to have some connection to the blocking over the Aleutians:

 

 

Waaaayyyy out there, but something to watch. Sometimes in La Ninas lately we've seen MC convection enhance Central Pac blocking and help with a strat split/ warming. If we could get one around Feb 20 or so it might not screw us over too much, especially with a N hemisphere base state this winter that leans cold over N America. 

Here's another visualization of the GFS temp anomalies above, paired with ye olden 200 mb divergent winds:

 

200 mb divergent winds show where there is upper level divergence and thus lift/ t-storms associated with the MJO. In fact and TBH, I don't really know what a CHI anomaly is, I just call the right hand chart above the MJO forecast chart. 

 

While I'm trying to wake up let's see if we have any mountain torques too, cause why not. GFS tries to drop a Siberian high down into East China towards the end of its run, but ehhh that's about it. 

 

 

Just read an Article regarding the La Nina ,CPAC and possibly Strat split connection couple days ago. Interesting.

[matt9697]

1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

0z Euro shows a possible way to score at the end of its run. Successive waves push the boundary further south. Something we've been talking about as well as seen before when the Pac is less than favorable. 

 

 

I don't really even know what the 6z GFS was on. Looking at the precip panels I thought it must have been trying to build a big NAO, since systems tried to cut and got shunted SE:

 

 

 

There's sort of a consistent 50/50, but most of the big blocking is in the PAC

 

Further afield, the Indian Ocean is lit up. In fact everything from 3-6 in the RMM plots look healthy and I suspect that's why the RMM plots are killing the signal into the COD. Having so much in each section kind of balances everything out:

Might be good if that strong of a signal with convection on both sides of the equator can make it around for another pass into 8-1. I still think it is at least 3 weeks before what is no south of Sri Lanka makes it anywhere close to being favorable for us. 

 

Up north, a lil split, a lil warming on the Euro:

 

GFS has more warming but nothing like the Euro's split above. 

The old yin - yang pattern:

Not so much reflected in height anomalies:

Seems to have some connection to the blocking over the Aleutians:

 

 

Waaaayyyy out there, but something to watch. Sometimes in La Ninas lately we've seen MC convection enhance Central Pac blocking and help with a strat split/ warming. If we could get one around Feb 20 or so it might not screw us over too much, especially with a N hemisphere base state this winter that leans cold over N America. 

Here's another visualization of the GFS temp anomalies above, paired with ye olden 200 mb divergent winds:

 

200 mb divergent winds show where there is upper level divergence and thus lift/ t-storms associated with the MJO. In fact and TBH, I don't really know what a CHI anomaly is, I just call the right hand chart above the MJO forecast chart. 

 

While I'm trying to wake up let's see if we have any mountain torques too, cause why not. GFS tries to drop a Siberian high down into East China towards the end of its run, but ehhh that's about it. 

 

 

Guess this means I am crazy but am I the only one that sees Munchs, The Scream here? Is that a harbinger of the upcoming pattern? 

[Carvers Gap]

The time of moderation is at hand.  I gotta be honest...I don't mind a bit of a warm-up.  Is this the end of winter?  I don't know.  I tend to think this is a warm-up that lasts until about February 9th.  What happens after that Feb 9th cold front will tell the tale.  There is a chance of a standing wave SER - sucks if you don't know what is and you like winter.  That is also flood city.  The 12z EPS/GEPS ensembles bring the cold back.  I tend to think of this warm-up as similar to what we saw after Christmas.  It will be intense, and a cool down follows...then followed by very cold temps compared to normal.  I think winter has shown its hand in that regard.  

As for the MJO, I tend to like the BOMM.  It is quicker and looks like modeling which doesn't lock-in cold, but really doesn't lock-in warmth either.  If you had to choose a set of months which are by far the hardest to forecast(hobby forecasting not the real kind), February-April is a brute.  "May the odds be forever in your favor" kind of stuff.

I still like the idea of a very cold start to March.  I feel a bit more confident in saying Feb 20 - March 14 will be BN in terms of temps.  Pretty good signal for strong cold then.  The second and third weeks of Feb seem like a back-and-forth pattern which is cold and then warm-up-and-rain.  We will probably need a tandem set of tty systems to get snow during that time frame, ie. the first system sets the boundary, and the second system runs it.

[John1122]

Still in the Euro vs GFS battle. The GFS keeps extending the warmth. The Euro is open to giving us some winter after February 8th/9th. 

[PowellVolz]

3 hours ago, John1122 said:

Still in the Euro vs GFS battle. The GFS keeps extending the warmth. The Euro is open to giving us some winter after February 8th/9th. 

Gonna be a wild February…. Severe weather one day, NW flow the next. 

[John1122]

The Euro took the system it showed at 12z, suppressed it and managed to snow in Alabama and the Eastern Carolinas. Then a clipper falls apart as it reaches here. Sound familiar?

[John1122]

GFS vs Euro

 

[Carvers Gap]

Just looking at the CPC MJO plots this morning, the GMON and GFS have caved to the Euro products.  The EMON has the MJO into phase 8 for the last 10 days of the month.  American plots get into phase 7 by mid month.  7 isn't great, but at least it isn't 6.  The EMON has us into 7 on Feb 6 which is about ten days faster than American modeling.  American modeling has sped up, and likely will speed up quite a bit more.  So far.....the lower amplitude Euro runs are verifying.

[Carvers Gap]

To me, it looks like Feb10-20 is a transition back to colder weather.  Then we see cold for a undetermined amount of time for the last ten days of the month.  This will potentially be our third cold shot this winter.  The MJO is driving the bus right now. 

[Daniel Boone]

7 hours ago, John1122 said:

GFS vs Euro

 

How often do you see complete polar opposites ?!?

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, Daniel Boone said:

How often do you see complete polar opposites ?!?

The last time that happened...the GFS lost that battle pretty badly (early January....looks almost identical to this battle).  This go around... I am not overly confident with either model right now.  The BOMM has the MJO rapidly cycling through the MJO plots(like twice!).  The Euro and American MJO plots are in a little bit better agreement this morning.  But....the actualy surface maps look like the BOMM!  No really pattern locks in.  Just lots of anomalous cold and anomalous warmth cycling through every few days.   It looks rainy with the SER pushing north with precip, and then cold/dry air masses forcing it south.  Wash, rinse, repeat.  We need for their wires to get crossed, and stir up a storm.  Again, I do think that Feb 20 could possible be the demarcation line where we get one last shot of cold air which lasts into a yet to be determined time in March.

[Daniel Boone]

35 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The last time that happened...the GFS lost that battle pretty badly (early January....looks almost identical to this battle).  This go around... I am not overly confident with either model right now.  The BOMM has the MJO rapidly cycling through the MJO plots(like twice!).  The Euro and American MJO plots are in a little bit better agreement this morning.  But....the actualy surface maps look like the BOMM!  No really pattern locks in.  Just lots of anomalous cold and anomalous warmth cycling through every few days.   It looks rainy with the SER pushing north with precip, and then cold/dry air masses forcing it south.  Wash, rinse, repeat.  We need for their wires to get crossed, and stir up a storm.  Again, I do think that Feb 20 could possible be the demarcation line where we get one last shot of cold air which lasts into a yet to be determined time in March.

I agree. The QBO is hindering Strat warming so probably no help from that. The MJO , as you alluded to earlier looks to of taken over driving the Bus now. Once it gets to 8 we should come out pretty good. The PNA should pop up good again and we may have more juiced Storms to work with due to the increased Temperature contrast.

[Carvers Gap]

10 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

I agree. The QBO is hindering Strat warming so probably no help from that. The MJO , as you alluded to earlier looks to of taken over driving the Bus now. Once it gets to 8 we should come out pretty good. The PNA should pop up good again and we may have more more juiced Storms to work with due to the increased Temperature contrast.

It does look soggy though!!!!

[Daniel Boone]

12 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

It does look soggy though!!!!

Hopefully we get lucky and get something akin to Feb. 12-13 1985. Heavy Rain to Blizzard . I'd like to know what phase the MJO was then. I'd bet late 7 or early 8. 

      If anyone has archive Data from then post it. I'll see what I can come up with.