Winter 2024/2025 February Thread

[Daniel Boone]

47 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Looks increasingly like winter is over outside of the mountains. After tonight we don't go below freezing again to close February and on my long range, only get below it on March 6th over the next 10 days.  Hopefully spring doesn't roller coaster and cause early blooming/late freezes. Maybe winter 2025-26 won't be one of missed opportunity. This wasn't a disaster winter, I had snow on the ground and in the air fairly often. Just a "what could've been" winter. Shows you that no matter how perfect the 500mb level aligns, it's still hard to get true snowstorms in our region in the 2000s.

Check out GAwx post in the SE sub regarding index's and Snowfall in our Area. Very interesting what he came up with. 

[John1122]

5 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Check out GAwx post in the SE sub regarding index's and Snowfall in our Area. Very interesting what he came up with. 

It doesn't surprise me that most spring events were favorable in the Pacific. It's hard to get cold enough here in spring or fall for snow without the Pac blocking driving the cold into the region. 

[Daniel Boone]

Knoxville 2”+ snowstorms Mar-Apr since 1971:

4/6-7/1971 weak +PNA, +EPO, strong +NAO, weak -AO

3/25/1972 neutral PNA, neutral EPO, neutral NAO, neutral AO

3/10/1975 weak -PNA, -EPO, neutral NAO, neutral AO, moderate phase 3

3/1/1980 moderate +PNA, -EPO, weak +NAO, weak -AO, weak phase 3

4/18/1983 moderate +PNA, neutral EPO, moderate -NAO, neutral AO, moderate phase 2

4/3/1987 strong +PNA, neutral EPO, neutral NAO, strong -AO, moderate phase 3

3/13/1993 neutral PNA, -EPO, moderate +NAO, moderate +AO, strong phase 2

3/12/2022 neutral PNA, neutral EPO, moderate +NAO, weak +AO, moderate phase 2

 

 Did these 8 dates have any index tendencies?

-Not ENSO as it was all over the board.

-PNA neutral to +

-EPO neutral to -  

-NAO neutral to +….interesting

-AO all over the board

-MJO phases 2 and 3 (cold phases in Mar, Apr)

 That's from GAWX. Excellent research by him !

[Daniel Boone]

I remember the odd -PNA March 1975 one. 5 inches fell before mixing with rain before ending. That one is the biggest surprise to me. Look at the MJO Phases in all of them. 

[John1122]

2 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

I remember the odd -PNA March 1975 one. 5 inches fell before mixing with rain before ending. That one is the biggest surprise to me. Look at the MJO Phases in all of them. 

In March of 75 we'd had a 2.5 inch snow on the 2nd/3rd. A potent cold front rolled through with rain to snow. It was 28/13 here on the 3rd. I know SWVa had 3 inches or so from that one too. 

We were in the teens several mornings in a row leading into the 10th but warm in the afternoons. 

It was an extremely wet month. We had over 13 inches of precipitation in March of '75.  6.2 inches of that fell in a couple of days right after the 5.5 inches of snow that fell on the 10th. 

[Carvers Gap]

18z GFS.  Looks to me like some light snow will fall on Friday for NE TN, SW VA, E KY, and northern Plateau.  Looks like some post frontal streamers.  

[Carvers Gap]

I still like that timeframe right around March 7th.  There isn't much showing right now, but that could change at this range.

[Carvers Gap]

To me, the MJO looks favorable through Mid-March.  Then things get murky.  It could loop back into colder phase or take the tour.  Either way, I think we have about three weeks left on the clock.  I do think modeling is just now seeing how cold the first couple of weeks of March will be.

[Carvers Gap]

I will say that I can now see spring on Weeklies modeling.  It looks like we flip warm around the third week of March - and now you know it will then snow knee high to a giraffe since I said that.  When I call for it to get warm, it generally does the opposite.  It is the one constant in my hobby skills.  

[*Flash*]

If winter is indeed over, my location wraps up with about ~8.5" which for this part of state, is fine by me. 

[*Flash*]

I'll also add February for western BNA suburbs are pretty much at 0 for monthly temp departures. I know we're about to warm up but relative to recent Februarys, I'm grateful for a seasonal second month of the year. 

[*Flash*]

Completely unrelated but stumbled upon the Kingston Springs CF6 for January 1977. No wonder people thought an ice return was imminent. As for 1985, despite the -52.3 departure on 1/21, that month would 'only' finish 9.5 below normal. I don't expect these cold anomalies will ever happen again...

 

 

[Carvers Gap]

We have gotten snow with almost every cold shot this winter.  If we see another cold shot, I think we will see more snow.

[Daniel Boone]

4 hours ago, John1122 said:

In March of 75 we'd had a 2.5 inch snow on the 2nd/3rd. A potent cold front rolled through with rain to snow. It was 28/13 here on the 3rd. I know SWVa had 3 inches or so from that one too. 

We were in the teens several mornings in a row leading into the 10th but warm in the afternoons. 

It was an extremely wet month. We had over 13 inches of precipitation in March of '75.  6.2 inches of that fell in a couple of days right after the 5.5 inches of snow that fell on the 10th. 

Thanks John. I'd forgot the smaller one's that Month.