Carvers Gap Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, matt9697 said: I am amazed at the level of cold projected next week, even without any snow. I was real close to pulling the Team Spring cord this week with all this rain. Brutal stuff given that we had record highs to start the month. Big flip. The difference between our max temp for the month and our min could be extreme. Some areas my flirt with 75-90 degree differences in those. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 And I hate to reiterate too much, but this storm may be the beginning of a cold and stormy pattern of repetitive events. The MJO is flirting with stalling in the coldest phases through mid March. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 The 6z ICON is a nice pass for much of the forum area. Both the 6z GEFS and EPS ensembles bumped up. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Man another storm with an absolutely brutal warm nose for eastern areas. This has been the winter of warm nosing and downslope lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 23 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Brutal stuff given that we had record highs to start the month. Big flip. The difference between our max temp for the month and our min could be extreme. Some areas my flirt with 75-90 degree differences in those. This winter has already been one for the records for my household - we may burn a full rick of wood for the season - end of last week I started on my fourth rick and looks like I will get into the fifth before the end of March 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 18 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: And I hate to reiterate too much, but this storm may be the beginning of a cold and stormy pattern of repetitive events. The MJO is flirting with stalling in the coldest phases through mid March. I like it, definitely looks like this storm and last week's storm is setting the table for the next few weeks. The cold next week is going to be rough, were going to have to cover greens again at the course, a few courses around Memphis went ahead and covered their greens yesterday. This will be the 3rd time this year we have had to put covers on greens, for reference we only had to do it once last year. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Even the NAVGEM jumped north. Usually it is the most suppressed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Chattanooga looks to be on the wrong side of this one. We got a decent snow last month so I’m not complaining. Hopefully the northern part of the valley can hold off the warm nose. Those at elevation look golden though! Still time for a miracle down here but I won’t hold me breath 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
housemtnTN Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 45 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said: Man another storm with an absolutely brutal warm nose for eastern areas. This has been the winter of warm nosing and downslope lol. What an unsightly nose that is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 hour ago, fountainguy97 said: Man another storm with an absolutely brutal warm nose for eastern areas. This has been the winter of warm nosing and downslope lol. Winter, decade, quarter-century….. been a pretty consistent feature for the better part of the last 25 years. Almost as consistent as a SE wind off the mountain when it’s cold enough for snow everywhere but along the base of the Apps. lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 All kidding (kinda) aside, a pretty good pass and the second best chance at a widespread winter event are looking increasingly likely. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 I think the foothills are not done with snow yet. There is a decent upslope component with this system. There are also some upslope systems following. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 And the "thunder in the mountains" rule....It is just uncanny how well that works. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: And I hate to reiterate too much, but this storm may be the beginning of a cold and stormy pattern of repetitive events. The MJO is flirting with stalling in the coldest phases through mid March. Shades of 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 In regards to the Eastern warm nose. The more Systems do that the more Models will show that occuring. As Carver's alluded to , those Tracks are usually perfect for the Area. Could be a time where Modeling is basically defaulting to the warm nose solution due to so many consecutive times that's occurred. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 12z GFS is a pretty big run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 The clown maps on wxbell again do not match the surface maps which precede it. Head scratcher. The surface maps are absolutely ripping. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Nice to see likely probs (along and north of 40) from the EPS this far out... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Foothills peeps are gonna like the 12z GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Each run now seems to be creeping up to the typical 1-40 battle zone,next few model runs it wouldnt surprise me if its all rain and not snow here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Heads up. Pivot/Wx Bell look completely different than Tropical Tidbits......like "not even looking at the same storm" different. The WxBell GFS run looks awesome as does the Pivotal run. But the TT run is a rainer. Head scratcher! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 30 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: Each run now seems to be creeping up to the typical 1-40 battle zone,next few model runs it wouldnt surprise me if its all rain and not snow here I don't disagree, though I'm fairly confident a decent chunk of our viewing area will experience a wintry mess, at the very least the NW quadrant of the midstate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 TT has rain in E TN but gets the same heavy snowfall maps as WxBell? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 12z trends aren't bad. CMC and gfs moving toward the more broken up 2 phase event. Intial precip and then backfill. Vs a single amped storm. euro went toward the gfs camp at 06z too. Seems like that is the obvious way we score with this one. Let that second wave of precip blossom in the cold sector and avoid the warm nose push by a full phase amped system. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 The UKIE (which is normally the warmest model) had mixing/warm nose issues for the far eastern areas and a lot of sleet, but still put down a lot of snow from 75 west basically. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 5 minutes ago, John1122 said: EC is flawed with it's Great Valley orientation anymore. Wants to shoot the Great Valley further west and due NE. Snow Maps are evident regarding this, even at close range. Needs work irt Terrain precision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Euro def seemed to tick colder with its 12z solution, from 6z. Just based on eyeballing thicknesses and precip types on weatherbell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 This morning's WPC depiction has a low over New Orleans and a 1052 high in western ND near the Canadian border: you'd think that would work out pretty well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 This EPS run may be as good as any we see for this system. Add an inch for ratio's north of 40 especially. 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now