Matthew70 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 So the CMC has a cold bias. Plus is it ever right? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Cold sticking around thru mid March! I blame the groundhog! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 19 minutes ago, Matthew70 said: So the CMC has a cold bias. Plus is it ever right? Look at it this way.....The CMC is due to be right once. 2 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 hour ago, Matthew70 said: So the CMC has a cold bias. Plus is it ever right? The Euro went right to it last night and again at lunch. I think E TN has the best shot at this but still a ways to go. Western NC and the Research Triangle are sitting pretty. We need this to back flow some…not sure if that happens. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Canadian got the Mid South clearing for the Eclipse. First model. It got sticking snow in Chatty Jan. 10 despite warm nose assault. Maybe it'll nail this one! Make Tennessee a Canadian province, lol! 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 If this thing heads to the Gulf of America I’m taking a trip up 81. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 hours ago, Matthew70 said: Cold sticking around thru mid March! I blame the groundhog! That rodent is only right when we don’t want him to be 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 18z ICON isn’t a bad pass of the assorted shortwaves. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: 18z ICON isn’t a bad pass of the assorted shortwaves. I really want a boomer. I hate being flirted with by models. By all rights climatology doesn’t really support monster snows IMBY(most years), but I am standing at the plate looking for a hanging fastball on this one. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: I really want a boomer. I hate being flirted with by models. By all rights climatology doesn’t really support monster snows IMBY(most years), but I am standing at the plate looking for a hanging fastball on this one. I agree and if ever there's a chance at a big dog, this is it. Also, climatology is on our side as far as big dog's; February/March.. We'll look at it from a more positive Standpoint Buddy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Ensembles are still useful at this range. 12z euro is actually better. I wouldn't worry about a small amount of suppression at this range. Not until inside 72 hrs. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 It's hard to ask for a better track than the GFS throws out at 18z. That track should have a bigger and better precip shield. I assume it transfers or something and falls apart like the January system kept getting modeled to do. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 What is crazy, the GFS has one loaded up right after this one. I don't think this is a tracking-one-and-done cold cycle. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 @Holston_River_Ramblersure looks like the 18z Euro just made a big, big move towards the CMC at 0z. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 3 hours ago, John1122 said: It's hard to ask for a better track than the GFS throws out at 18z. That track should have a bigger and better precip shield. I assume it transfers or something and falls apart like the January system kept getting modeled to do. With systems like these, JB noted that the GFS has a tendency/bias to try to hand off northern stream energy westward. He thinks that is why the GFS is weaker. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 MRX afternoon disco... We`ll get a break from the rain and snow chances for the first half of the week with drier air and more zonal flow in place. Certainty in the forecast begins to wane once we get to our next event with another round of more widespread and heavier snow looking possible. Another trough will be moving through the northern states around this time and really start to drop temperatures for the second half of the week. Increasing confidence that we`ll see some abnormally cold temperatures starting Thursday morning and continuing into the weekend. If the current forecast verifies we`ll likely see the return of teens or single digit temperatures on the coldest morning, likely Friday morning. Depending on the track of the trough/low we could see incoming precipitation at the same time that temperatures are falling leading to snowfall accumulations across the entire region, and possibly down into GA. Being this far out snowfall amounts are extremely uncertain, but seeing over 1 inch of snow across the central and northern valley is definitely not out of the question. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 GFS is a "meh" for the east, good for the Northern half of the western forum. The Canadian is a monster. The ICON somewhere in-between. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Holy macaroni at the 0z Canadian. The 0z GFS sped up trailing energy a bit...if that trend continues that should be a bigger storm. So far, the Canadian has been pretty steady. Again, I don't share a foxhole with it, but I admire the consistency. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On the 500 vort maps, you can see the 0z GFS is right in line with other models(and it was faster to a point this run) up until it just holds the northern stream over the Plains in a way that doesn't make sense to me. The Canadian feeds the northern stream right in. BIG differences. IF the northern stream feeds in, this could be a really big storm. It will likely pull the storm back northwest just due to the strength of the storm alone. To me, I cautiously side with JB in saying the GFS might be holding back the northern stream a bit much...but I am not sold that it is wrong yet. But the CMC sure looks more sensible. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 The other interesting thing is the CMC has trended northwest with each of its last four runs. The GFS and CMC aren't far apart in terms of clown maps. The GFS is trending southeast and the CMC is moving northwest. The ICON trended south. Looks to me like modeling is almost ready to cook.... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 0z UKMET is on the board as a decent storm. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 The 0z Euro looks pretty similar to other runs - kind of ICON-ish. I do like the theme of the UKMET being more juiced as that fits Februarys where systems are often under modeled. A major them is a pretty big jet streak over the forum area as the system begins to churn. That should produce orographic lift for 48-72 hours after the storm passes on favored northwest slopes. Ratios would be high as temps will likely be frigid. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 The 0z Euro is a textbook track for big storms - an inland runner. As John noted earlier about another model(GFS?), there "should" be more precip to its northwest. Track was perfect. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 The 0z CMC would be awesome. Here are the four major global runs for 0z. It seems like we might be reaching some agreement. As the storm comes on shore, I suspect we see it get stronger, but I could be wrong. That is only a hunch. Please not the UKMET is 10:1 and not kuchera. I do pay a bit of attention to it as it caught the last system decaying more quickly than other models had it. This time...a bit stronger on this run. Snow could fall in eastern areas from Wednesday to Saturday morning. I think westslope folks score on the upslope which follows with that maxed out jet. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 We best not miss the one right in front of us this weekend.... One last note in a flurry of posts, we could see some decent northwest flow Sunday evening through Sunday night and into Monday morning in favored areas. Winter temps are set to return. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Sure the Euro is record breaking temps for the day here,last time it got that cold here was Feb 5,1996 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 The UK 10:1 and ratio'd map aren't a ton different. It's the warmest of all the guidance from what I can gather. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 6z Euro: Maybe a touch warmer with thermals than 0z 6z GFS: As noted overnight GFS doesn't have as much influence from the northern upper low. But the 6z seemed like it had a touch more. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 I am amazed at the level of cold projected next week, even without any snow. I was real close to pulling the Team Spring cord this week with all this rain. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 6 hours ago, jaxjagman said: Sure the Euro is record breaking temps for the day here,last time it got that cold here was Feb 5,1996 Great observation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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