Carvers Gap Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Trend we are fighting over the last 6 hours is suppression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 5 big players, in my mind, using the 6z Euro as an example: 1 = main TRPV lobe, trapped under the retrograding block. Questions with this one: How far south is it? That guides the amp potential of 3, (initial shortwave energy). This is what helps kick off the initial wave of light snow that seems to pitter on on some model runs around Wednesday AM. 2 = Tail end of the TPV lobe, this has the most boom or bust potential IMO. Questions with this. How far south and east does it swing? Far enough and we get a big juicy storm. If it stays far back we get more amp in 3 or 5 (main shortwave IMO, that really brings the snow with the CMC or Euro runs). Or it could run interference and be just close enough, but also just far away enough to suppress both 3 and 5. 3 = initial, strung out, shortwave energy. Questions with this one. How strong and defined is it? Stronger and more well defined = more precip. with initial wave. 4 = wild card STJ mess. Just noticed this connection when I looked at the above map to make this post. How much moisture and or mid level dry air does this inject to beef up or weaken the synoptic set up? Remember the drying out that happened back in Jan? Does look as likely this time, but who knows. 5= main shortwave. In my mind this is the most important shortwave for us. Its amplification is what draws moisture to the north. Questions with this one were mostly noted above, but if this one and 2 were to somehow find a way to partially phase, you get a really nice storm. This scenario is what really brough the moisture back to us on the CMC run last night IMO: For MBY (and much of East TN IMO) that is the preferred scenario, but I think all are still on the table at this time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 6z EURO AIFS sent it to Cuba. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Current location of the system and STJ: Juice is there, but will it take it to Cuba? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 12z GFS is going to try to dig a bit more out West at 99h. It might just be slower, but this solution may be a bit different than 6z, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Absolute beast behind it: That is the storm that the 6z AIFS develops into a big nor'easter around Feb 24. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 GFS looks to have a little more precip with initial push, but the TPV suppresses the rest into oblivion, besides whatever lapse rate upslope we'd get as it swings through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 And that friends is why trailing energy systems are the worst to track. That GFS cutter the other day is almost laughable now. Ensembles overnight were very suppressed compared to their deterministic counterparts. This looks like it may well swing well below us and try to come up the coast in reality. Where is the SER when we need it? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 The ICON at 12z was very suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 CMC suppressed as well. Looks a lot like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 The 12z CMC has 1060 high sitting over this at 114. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, Carvers Gap said: The 12z CMC has 1060 high sitting over this at 114. Gulf Coast is only 500% of normal for snow. They need more! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Gulf Coast is only 500% of normal for snow. They need more! We are gonna try to send this one to Havana. Not good trends at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Yeah, hold up. The 12z CMC somehow found the storm. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 I don't know what I was looking at before, but yeah it does look like it might still have it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 The 12z CMC is a big dog. Trailing energy caught it. Have I said how much I hate tracking "trailing energy" storms. This is why. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 8 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: CMC suppressed as well. Looks a lot like the GFS. I must have mixed up the GFS and CMC when I posted the above lol. I was toggling between the two waiting for the Canadian to come in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 CMC almost does a happy median in the scenario I outlined a few posts back. Some snow from the initial wave and then more when the trailer tries a partial phase with the big TPV lobe rotating to our NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 The 12z CMC is a freaking monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 The 12z CMC has a 959 low sitting off Portland, Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 I don't even want to know how much cold is behind something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 The CMC can keep its -20 real feels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 45 degree BN temperature anomalies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 97mph wind gusts off the coast of Maine on that run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 I'm not sharing a foxhole with the CMC, but that was impressive. It is one of MANY options, but that shows at least one of the options on the table. For the record, the CMC was northwest of its 0z run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 And lots of snow. Someone feel free to post the kuchera. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 The 12z GFS, as putrid as it was, implies several nickel and dime events after the 19th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 I'll take 20 days in phase 8 and then a loop back around. But we will gladly take the CFS version which gives us 28 days in cold phases. The BOMM and EMON(Euro ext) from two days basically stall the MJO in cold phases from now to the end of their runs in the middle of March. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Pattern is similar to our cold spell back into Jan,wont be as cold but still BN.Think the MJO is still progressing and the signal by most models want to mute it back or close into the COD,think the reason is a KW in the NH/Africa,as we get closer to then end of wk3.When we got cold into Jan the SOI was around -20+ and the AAM albeit was into the COD it was still +ve,the AAM IMHO showed the flip to a crappie upcoming pattern around the 14th of Jan. 14 Feb 2025 1011.54 1009.30 -12.01 13.41 9.01 13 Feb 2025 1012.66 1009.05 -5.43 13.68 9.22 12 Feb 2025 1013.17 1008.40 0.14 13.25 9.32 11 Feb 2025 1012.74 1006.95 5.04 12.61 9.45 10 Feb 2025 1012.30 1004.05 16.86 11.75 9.56 9 Feb 2025 1012.49 1001.90 28.10 10.48 9.53 8 Feb 2025 1011.98 1001.55 27.33 9.08 9.27 7 Feb 2025 1013.14 1001.60 32.66 8.01 9.02 6 Feb 2025 1012.63 1001.30 31.65 6.80 8.63 5 Feb 2025 1011.64 1001.80 24.50 5.85 8.12 4 Feb 2025 1011.76 1003.20 18.35 5.21 7.72 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 The Euro was similar to 00z but less precip overall. Colder with high ratios. Way way way colder than the UK. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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