Daniel Boone Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 47 minutes ago, John1122 said: Looks increasingly like winter is over outside of the mountains. After tonight we don't go below freezing again to close February and on my long range, only get below it on March 6th over the next 10 days. Hopefully spring doesn't roller coaster and cause early blooming/late freezes. Maybe winter 2025-26 won't be one of missed opportunity. This wasn't a disaster winter, I had snow on the ground and in the air fairly often. Just a "what could've been" winter. Shows you that no matter how perfect the 500mb level aligns, it's still hard to get true snowstorms in our region in the 2000s. Check out GAwx post in the SE sub regarding index's and Snowfall in our Area. Very interesting what he came up with. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 5 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: Check out GAwx post in the SE sub regarding index's and Snowfall in our Area. Very interesting what he came up with. It doesn't surprise me that most spring events were favorable in the Pacific. It's hard to get cold enough here in spring or fall for snow without the Pac blocking driving the cold into the region. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 Knoxville 2”+ snowstorms Mar-Apr since 1971: 4/6-7/1971 weak +PNA, +EPO, strong +NAO, weak -AO 3/25/1972 neutral PNA, neutral EPO, neutral NAO, neutral AO 3/10/1975 weak -PNA, -EPO, neutral NAO, neutral AO, moderate phase 3 3/1/1980 moderate +PNA, -EPO, weak +NAO, weak -AO, weak phase 3 4/18/1983 moderate +PNA, neutral EPO, moderate -NAO, neutral AO, moderate phase 2 4/3/1987 strong +PNA, neutral EPO, neutral NAO, strong -AO, moderate phase 3 3/13/1993 neutral PNA, -EPO, moderate +NAO, moderate +AO, strong phase 2 3/12/2022 neutral PNA, neutral EPO, moderate +NAO, weak +AO, moderate phase 2 Did these 8 dates have any index tendencies? -Not ENSO as it was all over the board. -PNA neutral to + -EPO neutral to - -NAO neutral to +….interesting -AO all over the board -MJO phases 2 and 3 (cold phases in Mar, Apr) That's from GAWX. Excellent research by him ! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 I remember the odd -PNA March 1975 one. 5 inches fell before mixing with rain before ending. That one is the biggest surprise to me. Look at the MJO Phases in all of them. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 2 hours ago, Daniel Boone said: I remember the odd -PNA March 1975 one. 5 inches fell before mixing with rain before ending. That one is the biggest surprise to me. Look at the MJO Phases in all of them. In March of 75 we'd had a 2.5 inch snow on the 2nd/3rd. A potent cold front rolled through with rain to snow. It was 28/13 here on the 3rd. I know SWVa had 3 inches or so from that one too. We were in the teens several mornings in a row leading into the 10th but warm in the afternoons. It was an extremely wet month. We had over 13 inches of precipitation in March of '75. 6.2 inches of that fell in a couple of days right after the 5.5 inches of snow that fell on the 10th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 18z GFS. Looks to me like some light snow will fall on Friday for NE TN, SW VA, E KY, and northern Plateau. Looks like some post frontal streamers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 I still like that timeframe right around March 7th. There isn't much showing right now, but that could change at this range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 To me, the MJO looks favorable through Mid-March. Then things get murky. It could loop back into colder phase or take the tour. Either way, I think we have about three weeks left on the clock. I do think modeling is just now seeing how cold the first couple of weeks of March will be. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 I will say that I can now see spring on Weeklies modeling. It looks like we flip warm around the third week of March - and now you know it will then snow knee high to a giraffe since I said that. When I call for it to get warm, it generally does the opposite. It is the one constant in my hobby skills. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 If winter is over, my location wraps up with about ~8.5" which for this part of the state, is fine by me. On a side note, February for western BNA suburbs are pretty much at 0 for monthly temp departures. I know we're about to warm up but relative to recent Februarys, I'm grateful for a seasonal second month of the year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 Completely unrelated but stumbled upon the Kingston Springs CF6 for January 1977. No wonder people thought an ice age return was imminent. As for 1985, despite the -52.3 departure on 1/21, that month would 'only' finish 9.5 below normal. I don't expect these cold anomalies will ever happen again... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 We have gotten snow with almost every cold shot this winter. If we see another cold shot, I think we will see more snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 4 hours ago, John1122 said: In March of 75 we'd had a 2.5 inch snow on the 2nd/3rd. A potent cold front rolled through with rain to snow. It was 28/13 here on the 3rd. I know SWVa had 3 inches or so from that one too. We were in the teens several mornings in a row leading into the 10th but warm in the afternoons. It was an extremely wet month. We had over 13 inches of precipitation in March of '75. 6.2 inches of that fell in a couple of days right after the 5.5 inches of snow that fell on the 10th. Thanks John. I'd forgot the smaller one's that Month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 Per the severe wx thread, got chances both week 2 and week 3. But, a big thing here, could get cold again in between. Can we do the snow and thunder thing? I'm half serious. Models are all over the place with a muddled MJO. Are we doing Maritime Sub or West Pac? 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 12z Euro is flirting with a trackable event around 300. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 7 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: 12z Euro is flirting with a trackable event around 300. That's the timeframe that's been looking the most favorable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Save the itchy algae! Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 The 00z GFS is beginning to sniff out something in that timeframe.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 12z Euro has something around March 8. I think this is the same system models have been seeing off and on per the above posts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Wednesday at 11:44 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:44 AM Looks like overnight modeling is keying onto the March 7-8 time frame, and maybe one more shot after that. No guarantees. Looks like John has started our spring thread. Maybe we can begin spring with some snow. In like a lion. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Thursday at 02:07 AM Share Posted Thursday at 02:07 AM With the exception of about 7-10 days, I had snow continuously on the ground from say Jan 3 to yesterday (Feb 25th). 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted Thursday at 05:30 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:30 PM 15 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: With the exception of about 7-10 days, I had snow continuously on the ground from say Jan 3 to yesterday (Feb 25th). You can bet KTRI won't have anything remotely close to what you had as far as Snow coverage Days. Be lucky if there's 4 or 5. Same deal in Lee County as well as the "Official" Station near Pennington gap will be erroneously lower in Amounts. I think they must measure on top of the River there, lol. I think Kingsport out done Johnson City and maybe even Bristol irt Snowfall didn't they ? Barring any more, my Seasonal Total is at 19.7 Inches. So, basically the 1990-2010 Normal. I don't agree with the decreasing Averages as often as NWS does changing the " Normals" basically every Year anymore as that's just foolish. The 20-30 Year changes make sense imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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